Here are some pictures of what the weather looked from space during the winter. Of course most of the time the UK was covered in cloud but here are the rare few moments when it was clear enough to see.
[b]18th March 2015[/b] - Snow over the very top of the Scottish Highland mountains can be seen.
[attachment=247548:18thmarch.png]
[b]9th March 2015[/b] - Storm passing over the NW of Scotland bringing gusts over 90mph.
[attachment=247544:9thmarch.png]
[b]17th February 2015[/b] - Mos
Made using the CFS long range model along with the Climate Simulator.
[b]Rainfall[/b] - Ireland, Wales, South West and North of England, Western and Southern Scotland will see rainfall above average. Ireland especially looks to see the most.
[attachment=243391:febrain.png]
[b]Temperature[/b] - Most of the UK and Ireland look average however there are signs of some mixed mild and cold weather about. Overall Southern England and parts of Wales may end up slightly more milder than average.
[b]Introduction[/b]
Hi all, since 2011 I've done a yearly weather model experiment to find the best performing one.
The previous winners were,
2011 ECM
2012 UKMO
2013 GEM
This time the experiment took part during December 2014. We will be testing the nine weather models listed below,
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts = ECM
Japan Meteorological Agency = JMA
Met Office = UKMO
Canadian Weather Service = GEM
Global Forecast System = GFS
Global Forecast System P
Hi everyone, well its that time of the month again when I release my monthly forecast. My winter forecast released back in November seems to be doing okay at the moment you can still read it here [url="https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4843-winter-2014-2015-forecast-december-to-march/"]https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4843-winter-2014-2015-forecast-december-to-march/[/url] Anyway here are my latest thoughts on January 2015.
Made using the CFS long range model along with th
I released my winter forecast last week which can be viewed here [url="https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4843-winter-2014-2015-forecast-december-to-march/"]https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4843-winter-2014-2015-forecast-december-to-march/[/url] I will still do monthly forecast updates so here is December.
[b]Rainfall[/b] - Western Ireland and the North West of the UK could see rainfall being above average while the rest of the UK remains average.
[attachment=231116:decem
I'm using the Climate Simulator which I've used over the past 2 years and found it to be very accurate for predicting average temperatures for long range forecasts and also I will be using the CFS maps as well. I have compared all of my data to last years to make comparisons and fine tune my forecast.
[b]December[/b]
Climate Simulator - The dark blue line at the top show our average temperatures and the red line just underneath it shows our forecast temperature for December. It's saying as
A few days later than usual but here it is.
[b]November 2014[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/color]
[b]Rainfall[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - All of Ireland, Wales and Western parts of England and Scotland look to see above average rainfall while Eastern parts of England and Scotland see a
[b]October 2014[/b] - Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.
[b]Rainfall[/b] - Northern Ireland and Western Scotland are the two area's that are very likely to see more than average rainfall during October. Meanwhile the rest of the UK looks to see average rainfall amounts.
[attachment=225563:octoberrain.png]
[b]Temperature[/b] - All parts of the UK and Ir
[b]September 2014[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica] - Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/font][/color]
[b]Rainfall[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - Most places in the UK and Ireland will be average but Southern Ireland, most of Scotland and England apart from the Northern parts will see below average rainfall. Scotland
[b]August 2014[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/color]
[b]Rainfall[/b] - Western Scotland and the South of Ireland are the two main area's that are likely to see more rainfall than average, the Midlands in England though have a slight risk of seeing above average as well. The rest of the country is expecte
[b]July 2014[/b] - Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.
[b]Rainfall[/b]
Southern parts of Ireland and the South West of England are the two area's where above average rainfall can be expected. Elsewhere can expect average rainfall although there are some hints that the Midlands may see some spells of wet weather and the South West of Scotland some dry spell
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica][size=5][b]June 2014 -[/b][/size][/font][/font][/color][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica] [/font][/font][/color][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/font][/color]
[b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Rainfall[/
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][size=5][b]May 2014 -[/b][/size][/font][/color][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] [/font][/color][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/font][/color]
[b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Rainfall[/font][/font][/color][/b]
[color=rgb(40,40,40
[center][size=5]10. False taste of winter[/size][/center]
[center][attachment=210712:29Nov.png][/center]
Towards the end of November the UK got it's first taste of winter with strong Northerly winds and some wintry weather around as well.
[center][size=5]9. The January tease[/size][/center]
[center][attachment=210721:Jan.png][/center]
January was mostly settled and it always felt like it was leading up to something the models would show us some cold charts then downgrade them as
[size=5][b]April 2014 -[/b][/size] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]Based on long range forecasts and the climate simulator.[/font][/color]
[b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]Rainfall[/font][/color][/b]
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]England, Wales and parts of Ireland and Southern Scotland look most likely to see above average rainfall. Northern Ireland and the rest of Scotland is expected to see average rainfall amounts. Overall I think April could be slightly wetter in so
[size=5][b]March 2014 - [/b][size=4]Based on long range forecasts and the climate simulator.[/size][/size]
[b]Rainfall[/b]
After the wettest winter since records began there are signs of above average rainfall continuing into March especially for the West.
[attachment=208606:MarchRain.png]
Eastern parts are likely to see average rainfall amounts.
[b]Temperature[/b]
The South East of England is likely to see 1°C or maybe even 1.5°C above average temperatures as the rest of the
Welcome to the weather model experiment of 2013, in 2011 the ECM won it and in 2012 the UKMO won it but what model performed the best through out this experiment? It took place in December 2013.
These are the 9 models that took part in this experiment and some of them are new the NAVGEM, NASA and CMA which have never been tested before against the rest.
GFS
ECM
UKMO
JMA
GME
GEM
NAVGEM
NASA GEOS5
CMA
So how does it work? I let each model do its 12z runs and I pick a random locati
[center]Short update can be found at the very bottom[/center]
[center][size=5]Autumn 2013 Forecast[/size][/center]
The forecast below is made using the CFS monthly and seasonal forecast data as well as data from Climate Simulator a program where I input data of the current climate and it calculates the temperatures of the following months.
[size=5]September[/size]
Temperatures - For the rest of September near to average, with Southern parts of England experiencing some brief periods
[center]Update 21st July 2013[/center]
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
A small update from my original summer forecast back in May,[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
First onto August and September the CFS seems confident on average temperatures for the rest of the summer. As for rainfall, August average with some Western area's seeing below average rainfall as we move into September things change around with most of the UK seeing very wet weather to end the summer.[
[center][b][size=5]9. Blocked pattern towards the end of November and start of December.[/size][/b][/center]
[center][img]http://i707.photobucket.com/albums/ww79/Sean2e5/Nov_zpsa5004e46.png[/img][/center]
It was something that got many people talking about what December may hold for us. Some remained positive but for others they thought it wasn't good enough and cancelled winter before it had even properly started.
[center][size=5][b]8. December a month of the models taunting us with e
[center][size=8]NOGAPS[/size][/center]
[center][size=6]1982 to 2013[/size][/center]
[size=4][b]The Start:[/b] NOGAPS came into the world in 1982 it's job was simple give the Navy a weather forecast. It impressed people by going to 180 hours and bringing in 4 updates per day.[/size]
[size=4][b]It's Prime: [/b]NOGAPS did have a prime moment when it was new and updated reguarly it could compete well with the other models at the time.[/size]
[size=4][b]The Mocking: [/b]In the past few year
In 2011 I done a experiment to see how the models perform in 2012 I done the same thing. The experiment took place during September and October. Basically how it works fairly they all make a forecast on the same day at the same time (12z) then when the actual time comes I check the actual weather conditions and see how accurate they were. The models faced tough challenges mainly in September when Hurricane Nadine made the models struggle. The points system rewards the models more points the furt
[center]Updated summary below and in the comments - Last Updated 9th February 2013.[/center]
[center][size=5]2012 - 2013 Winter Forecast[/size][/center]
[center]Written By Sean Macdonald aka on NW weathermaster[/center]
[center][b]How the forecast has been made[/b][/center]
I've used the CFS monthly mean maps that pick up long range trends for the upcoming months. But I have also used a program called ''Climate Simulator'' to help back up my forecast in certain area's. I used the p
[url="http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4480-first-look-at-autumn-2012-and-the-winter-ahead-part-3/"][b]View part 3 here[/b][/url]
It's been 4 weeks since the last update and we have seen an interesting end to October a lot colder than expected.
[b]Rainfall,[/b]
November: Below average for Scotland and Ireland but average for England and Wales.
December: Across Northern Scotland slightly above average and for the South West of England slightly below. Elsewhere looks average.
To view part 2 you can click [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4469-very-early-first-look-at-winter-20122013-part-2/"]here[/url].
[b]Rainfall,[/b]
[b]October:[/b] It looks like Northern parts of the UK will experience lower than average rainfall meanwhile Southern parts will get more rainfall.
[b]November:[/b] It is looking mainly average for most of the UK but again Northern parts may see lower rainfall.
[b]December: [/b]The below average rainfall trend continues from
