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Winter Seasonal Forecast!


Azores Hi

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So you took the bait then, time to reel you in I suppose.

Here is my forecast for the short term and then looking further ahead, hope you like it....

Synoptic situation.

Number of meetings attended 3

Number of meetings to go 1

Urge to kill rising

Will to live falling.

Forecast.

Urge to kill is expected to rise with increasing frequency of gits from the south west. Will to live expected to fall further as pressure rises.

The longer term outlook is mainly dull with outbreaks of pain. As the weekend approaches things will improve with pressure falling and with the gits finally clearing the south east corner .For further information and a more detailed view press the red button on your remote.

Seasonal outlook.

As always with this sort of forecast there are several factors to take into account. Any subtle changes in the interaction of these forces can make forecasting at this range difficult. Wherever possible I have included references and keys to abbreviations.

I have used four major cyclical indicators while compiling this forecast.

1. AGO (Annoying Git Occillation)

2. SHOP (Sporadic Hormonal Occillating Period)

3. OMD (Overdue Mortgage Deficit)

4. WRSF (Work Related Stress Factor)

5. MDO (Money Deficit Occilation)

November.

With the MO forecasted to be below average this should correspond to higher pressure values, however taking into account the WRSF being largely absent this year this may well balance to provide neutral pressure anomalies for the coming season.

One can not rule out the wildcard which in this case would be unexpected input from SHOP, this may well turn everything on it's head creating higher pressure when one would not expect such values. Recent history shows that SHOP has a habit of forming just when we least expect it so you can never take it for granted.

Pressure is expected to be average or slightly above average for the first half of the month. And with AGO and MGO in the negative this should provide lengthy settled spells.

December.

The first part of Dec is expected to be a continuation of November. But about mid month particularly as we approach Christmas, MDO is expected to reach high levels, possibly some of the highest this decade! As many of you know this in turn will have an effect on the OMD, the correlation between the two is not fully understood, what is widely accepted is that when MDO is strongly positive the OMD is not far behind. This will create lengthy spells of high pressure. In this situation something has to give, it is my expectation that come the end of the month pressure will fall dramatically, giving rise to a situation not too uncommon around Christmas, and that is SOCS (seasonal over-consumption syndrome). However this year SOCS will be highly amplified and may come as a shock to the system after such a lengthy period of high pressure.

Another factor to take into account is the onset of the AGO, this highly unpredictable ‘spanner in the works’ often appears late in the year in the form of a distant relative. If this should occur this year it would probably cause an outbreak of SHOP and this would spell disaster, should this occur do be surprised to see one of the deepest depressions for some time.

January

Into the new-year things will take a turn for the worst, after such a long time of shortened day-length, plus adding in the SOCS factor will result in huge depressions across the whole country. It's too far out for specifics but if I was going to bet on it I would say it will be duller than average, however towards the end of Jan and into the first part of Feb MDO should return to normal levels and in turn the MDO will follow suit.

In summary then a settled start, followed by a potentially tempestuous mid season spell before things settle down again.

Forecasting at this range is of course impossible, everytime I look at the charts I see some pretty patterns and they mean nothing, so I've just made all of that up, if of course I'm right I will delete this sentance.

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