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Mild Winters- Less Deaths? It's Not That Simple


Thundery wintry showers

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On cold-related deaths, I argue that they should not be cited as a reason why people should prefer mild.

Cold-related deaths reduce when, in isolation, we have a winter that is mild relative to the average for recent years. But when we have a succession of mild winters, people get used to a milder average, and less prepared for a given degree of cold than before. Thus, in the short term milder winters mean less deaths, but in the long term they do not.

Interestingly it's similar with snow- snow causes a lot more disruption in London and Paris than it does in Moscow, simply because it is much rarer in those cities and so the residents are less prepared for it.

This doesn't just have relevance to weather type preferences. It is also a strong counter to the argument that we should welcome global warming because it will reduce cold-related deaths in winter. In practice the evidence just doesn't bear this out.

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