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I Just Can't See It Happening ..



What will happen to the northerly shown at +120 onwards > ?   

19 members have voted

  1. 1. Will the northerly ?????

    • happen and give us a cold blast from the north
    • Move eastwards and miss the uk altogether
    • not happen and the high stays over the uk
    • not happen and sink the high giving us mild south westerly's
    • not happen and low pressure flattens the high and send us into a westerly
    • give us a brief northerly before high pressure bulds back over the uk and cut's off the cold feed of air.

Good Evening all , Haven't managed to write a blog since christmas so I thought i'd write a few thoughts down now. Well what a winter season this year , 10 days of snow falling here in Leicester from the 1st of February and finishing on the evening of my birthday on the 9th with Heavy snow and strong winds before becoming milder on the 10th. I have to admit after seeing the build up to this years season though this winter was not as good as I expected it to be , but it was a good start . I will be very interested to see how quickly the cold pooling to our north starts to build this september .

Onto winter's last blast , I really can not see it happening , Every northerly that has shown up recently has moved eastwards and missed us , energy still looks to strong to the north to allow the high pressure to build into greenland , indeed tonight's (18th march) Ecm doesn't allow the high to move into greenland at all. Because of the energy to the north I think we will get a break down to unsettled conditions but it is likely to come from the north west and linger close to the uk sending the winds westwards and giving a more flatter patten.

Even if the northerly did come off as gfs currently shows it , the uppers are only around -5 in the south with would not support lying snow at this time of year so a wintry mix would be the most likely outcome .

The biggest problem us weather watchers have at the moment is the models being so unreliable and to make that problem worse is that most of the models are seeing the same wrong signals. I am tempted to say that the mmw may be a factor as the models don't know how to handle it. ( I know there is no direct info on this fed into the models , but the global effects of it obviously are. )

I am going to finish this blog off with a poll to see what you all think will happen to the progged northerly . I give it a 30% chance at the moment meaning I think it is more likely not to happen .

Cheers all



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