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Winter 2010 Good Or Bad?



As some of you may know, I prefer the much colder months of the year. Particularly when we get the snow, or when we are supposed to at any rate.
This year is really looking interesting. We have a much colder feel to it, much like last year, except its expected to be on average a little colder this time

So far my observations have only started on November 20th, because anything before it just did not interest me from a winter perspective. I.e when i really begin to monitor my back yard weather station gadgets.

So far from my measurements and remember it's still early days yet. Things are really starting to look up for a possible snow filled winter during December. This month on average as been much colder than last year, and certainly colder since November of 2003, which was full of sleet and snow showers on and off by the early start of the month. That winter we ended up with snow lying on the ground on Christmas day. We also had snow on the ground last Christmas day too.

One interesting thing to note however, is that the last 6 November's for my area have by and large been slightly cool each year. And they are much cooler than any November in the 90's apart from the one or two years where we had snow, but it wasn't to last. Is this a gradual cooling trend in the north west in general? I think personally it is, but the professionals could point and probably rightfully say -> the last six winters for your region don't tell the whole story or 6 past winters don't equal gradual cooling. Even though the measurements prove otherwise. Scientist's heh?

November 23rd saw min low temp hit -3.1C the coldest it's been so far. Nov 24 min low temp -2.5C, two nights now at below freezing.

So what do I reckon about the incoming snow from the North East?
Though currently our temperatures over the North west are by and large perfect for snow conditions, I think those on the other side of the Pennines are going to benefit the most from any possible snow shower activity. The radar I use from raintoday which is high rez like netweather's can forecast ahead of time, and it clearly shows the snow showers becoming more organized and getting over the Pennines into the Greater Manchester region by lunch time or just after.
I don't actually think NW Cheshire or indeed Merseyside will see anything of this current snow banding from the North East. But there is something on the horizon during late Friday / Saturday and Sunday that gives me more optimism.

I think day time temperatures will turn any of this incoming showery activity straight to rain or wet slush the further east you are.


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Guest ballymoss


There is plenty of snow up here. Clatt, north east Scotland. Say about 10".The same weather as last winter but it has started a lot earlier. Still snowing and there is more to come.
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It's strange because I can remember right back to when we'd get regular heavy snow from the north west and indeed the north. The recent trend has certainly been one of a more Scandinavian orientation, feeding cold polar air over the North East / East Scotland region. Which has produced some amazing amounts of snow.

Just 48 hours after this post, places further south and into the midlands have been catching some very heavy persistent snow, but to the North West, Merseyside, Wirral, West Cheshire have seen absolutely no hint of a snow flake. But this has by and large become normal for us in these regions. Excuse the pun but this fits aptly to our setup, it must be "The Perfect Storm" in regards absolute location of incoming snow, the temperature and everything.

I think we'll be the last to see anything but I also think this year we could be the region that sees the most snow this time around. Looking at the winter forecast and reading between the lines, its looking potentially best for the North West for heavy and persistent snow over December and paticularly January, with most other places being significantly drier than last year, and the south being cold and very dry, where as the further north and west you go, the chances increase for more wetter conditions, yet cold enough for snow.
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