Entry posted by J10
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[size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Introduction[/b]
Very much a NW SE split for the weather pattern for the Atlantic and Europe on current charts. General low pressure covering Greenland and all the way across to Scandinavia, with deep low pressure off the east co[/font][/size][size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]ast of Iceland. Low Pressure for the north of the UK and westwards. However a big block of High pressure covering Russia, Eastern Scandinavia, all of mainland Europe, southern UK and right down to the Azores. Largely mild over most of Europe bar Russia, Northern Scandinavia, Iceland and briefly Northern parts of the UK.[/font][/size]
[size=3]Last week you may recall, that I mentioned the possibility of cold weather around now unfortunately the colder weather did not make it far enough south. It is also worth remembering that towards the end of a 7 day forecast, the accuracy levels do tend to fall as time goes on. [/size]
[size=2][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][attachment=123769:Current 25th Nov 850HPa.png][/font][/size]
[size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Synoptic Progression [/b]
The low pressure continuing to dominate over NW Europe, again covering Greenland to Scandinavia but starting to lower pressure over the UK, especially the Northern Half, and also over much of Scandinavia. High Pressure (1032mb) remains bang on top of Central Europe.
Generally mild in western areas with SW winds with a Bartlettesque pattern, cooler the further East you go,
[attachment=123768:25 Nov +24.png]
For Sunday, little change in the overall pattern, The low pressure continuing to dominate over NW Europe, again covering Greenland to Scandinavia, and with NW winds into Northern Scandinavia turning much colder here. A ridge of high pressure from the SW bringing a short draw NW to the UK briefly turning it cooler/colder here. High Pressure over much of mainland Europe (1028mb) , staying mostly mild and settled.
[attachment=123767:25 Nov +48.png]
Monday sees low pressure into Scandinavia and with NW winds remaining cold. Low Pressure centred over Iceland, but with high Pressure generally over Europe, with 1028mb Germany/ Poland. Winds again revert to SW over the UK, returning milder Tropical Maritime air, but with high pressure. Milder over Western Europe and the Alps, cooler into Eastern Europe associated with NW winds.
[attachment=123766:25 Nov +72.png]
Low Pressure for the Atlantic, and starting to edge in Western UK, High Pressure over Europe (1032mb) has shifted east to be centred over Eastern Poland. So mild and settled for much of Western Europe including the UK and the Alps,. However on the Northern and Eastern side of the High Pressure, cold or very cold for N and E Scandinavia and into Russia.
[attachment=123765:25 Nov +96.png]
Wednesday sees the whole pattern edge eastwards, High Pressure (1036mb) centred around Ukraine. Low Pressure for the Atlantic and Northern Scandinavia, slack and cool (and showery) SW winds over the UK. On the western side of the High \pressure, for much on western Europe and into Scandinavia, mild or very mild and remaining mostly settled.
[attachment=123764:25 Nov +120.png]
Unsettled (992mb) over the UK and quite cool, also unsettled with NW winds over Northern Scandinavia. The core of the High Pressure has over into Russia, but much of Europe remaining settled and mild or very mild with SW winds. Slightly less settled over Western Europe with the chance of a few showers, this includes the Alps.
[attachment=123763:25 Nov +144.png]
Unsettled (992mb) over much of Western Europe including the Alps and the UK and generally quite mild. High pressure over much of Eastern Europe and Russia but mild. Cooler over Northern Russia and Scandinavia with West or North West winds.
[attachment=123762:25 Nov +168.png]
[b]Alpine Detail[/b]
[CODE]
850Hpa Summary (Noon) , Regional Detail
Sat 26th Nov -2 to +7 +2 in NE Austria, +7 in SW Switzerland
Sun 27th Nov +7 to +11 Highest in Austria, Switzerland border
Mon 28th Nov -1 to +8 -1 in NE Austria, +8 in SW Switzerland
Tues 29th Nov +1 to +8 -1 in SE Austria, +8 in Tyrol
Wed 30th Nov 0 to +7 0 in SW Switzerland, +7 in Tyrol, Warmer South to North
Thurs 1st Dec +2 to +7 +2 in SW Switzerland, +7 in Tyrol, Warmer South to North
Fri 2nd Dec +3 to +6
[/CODE]
[CODE]
0c Isotherm Summary (6am) , Regional Detail
Sat 26th Nov 300m-2000m 300m in North and East, 2000m in South West, 600-1200m generally
Sun 27th Nov 1000m-3000m Localised pockets due to cloud cover
Mon 28th Nov 300m-2000m 300m in Northern Switzerland, 2000m in South West
Tues 29th Nov 300m-2400m 300m in North generally, 2400m in central slice inc Tyrol
Wed 30th Nov 300m-2400m 300m in North and East, 2400m centred around Tyrol and NW Austria
Thurs 1st Dec 600m-2400m 600m-1500m generally, higher centred around Tyrol
Fri 2nd Dec 1500m-2100m Generally
[/CODE]
[CODE]
0c Isotherm Summary (Noon) , Regional Detail
Sat 26th Nov 1200m-3000m 1200m in North East, 3000m South West
Sun 27th Nov 3100m-3600m Highest to South West
Mon 28th Nov 1400m-3000m 1400m in North East, 3000m France
Tues 29th Nov 2400m-2800m Generally
Wed 30th Nov 2000m-3000m 1600-2000m South West, 2600-3000m Austria
Thurs 1st Dec 1600m-2600m 2000-2400m west, 2600m NE Austria
Fri 2nd Dec 1800m-2700m 1800-2100m west, 2700m NE Austria
[/CODE]
[b]Sat 26th Nov[/b]
Mostly dry and settled, High Pressure around 1030mb.
[attachment=123770:25 Nov +24.PNG]
[b]Sun 27th Nov[/b]
Mostly dry and settled, High Pressure around 1024-1028mb.
[attachment=123771:25 Nov +48.PNG]
[b]Mon 28th Nov[/b]
A little precipitation edging into Southern Germany from the north for the morning, Snow Level around 800m, thereafter mostly dry and settled, High Pressure around 1024-1028mb.
[attachment=123772:25 Nov +72.PNG]
[b]Tues 29th Nov[/b]
Mostly dry and settled, High Pressure around 1020 (west) -1028mb (east)
[attachment=123773:25 Nov +96.PNG]
[b]Wed 30th Nov[/b]
Mostly dry and settled, Pressure dropping from the west 1008mb (here) - 1020mb (E Austria)
[attachment=123774:25 Nov +120.PNG]
[b]Thurs 1st Dec[/b]
From early hours, some moderate showers developing for SW Switzerland, Snow Level around 1200m. This precipitation developing more widely during the morning and into the afternoon for the Southern Alps, much of Western Italy and for Southern Switzerland, SL around 1400-1700m, some showers also possible for NW Switzerland, SL around 2200m. Precipitation continuing during the evening and spreading into more central areas of Italy, SL remaining mostly similar.
[attachment=123775:25 Nov +144.PNG]
[b]Fri 2nd Dec[/b]
Precipitation continuing overnight into Friday morning however becoming restricted to Southern Switzerland, Western Italy and the Southern alps, Trois Valleys area of France, SL 1600m+.
This continuing through the day and into the evening for the areas mentioned above, snow levels around 1800-2000m, this is 7 days away and as such detail is very uncertain, but 20cm of snow cannot be ruled out for higher slopes, probably highest on the French Italian border.
[attachment=123776:25 Nov +168.PNG]
[b]Outlook[/b]
There is considerable disagreement between the GFS on which most of the above is based, and the ECM, from around T+120 onwards and into the longer term. ECM goes for the possibility of a decent polar Maritime outbreak from the NW from around next Friday onwards, clearly time will tell which is correct and I will update on this during the week.[/font][/size]
Very much a NW SE split for the weather pattern for the Atlantic and Europe on current charts. General low pressure covering Greenland and all the way across to Scandinavia, with deep low pressure off the east co[/font][/size][size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]ast of Iceland. Low Pressure for the north of the UK and westwards. However a big block of High pressure covering Russia, Eastern Scandinavia, all of mainland Europe, southern UK and right down to the Azores. Largely mild over most of Europe bar Russia, Northern Scandinavia, Iceland and briefly Northern parts of the UK.[/font][/size]
[size=3]Last week you may recall, that I mentioned the possibility of cold weather around now unfortunately the colder weather did not make it far enough south. It is also worth remembering that towards the end of a 7 day forecast, the accuracy levels do tend to fall as time goes on. [/size]
[size=2][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][attachment=123769:Current 25th Nov 850HPa.png][/font][/size]
[size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Synoptic Progression [/b]
The low pressure continuing to dominate over NW Europe, again covering Greenland to Scandinavia but starting to lower pressure over the UK, especially the Northern Half, and also over much of Scandinavia. High Pressure (1032mb) remains bang on top of Central Europe.
Generally mild in western areas with SW winds with a Bartlettesque pattern, cooler the further East you go,
[attachment=123768:25 Nov +24.png]
For Sunday, little change in the overall pattern, The low pressure continuing to dominate over NW Europe, again covering Greenland to Scandinavia, and with NW winds into Northern Scandinavia turning much colder here. A ridge of high pressure from the SW bringing a short draw NW to the UK briefly turning it cooler/colder here. High Pressure over much of mainland Europe (1028mb) , staying mostly mild and settled.
[attachment=123767:25 Nov +48.png]
Monday sees low pressure into Scandinavia and with NW winds remaining cold. Low Pressure centred over Iceland, but with high Pressure generally over Europe, with 1028mb Germany/ Poland. Winds again revert to SW over the UK, returning milder Tropical Maritime air, but with high pressure. Milder over Western Europe and the Alps, cooler into Eastern Europe associated with NW winds.
[attachment=123766:25 Nov +72.png]
Low Pressure for the Atlantic, and starting to edge in Western UK, High Pressure over Europe (1032mb) has shifted east to be centred over Eastern Poland. So mild and settled for much of Western Europe including the UK and the Alps,. However on the Northern and Eastern side of the High Pressure, cold or very cold for N and E Scandinavia and into Russia.
[attachment=123765:25 Nov +96.png]
Wednesday sees the whole pattern edge eastwards, High Pressure (1036mb) centred around Ukraine. Low Pressure for the Atlantic and Northern Scandinavia, slack and cool (and showery) SW winds over the UK. On the western side of the High \pressure, for much on western Europe and into Scandinavia, mild or very mild and remaining mostly settled.
[attachment=123764:25 Nov +120.png]
Unsettled (992mb) over the UK and quite cool, also unsettled with NW winds over Northern Scandinavia. The core of the High Pressure has over into Russia, but much of Europe remaining settled and mild or very mild with SW winds. Slightly less settled over Western Europe with the chance of a few showers, this includes the Alps.
[attachment=123763:25 Nov +144.png]
Unsettled (992mb) over much of Western Europe including the Alps and the UK and generally quite mild. High pressure over much of Eastern Europe and Russia but mild. Cooler over Northern Russia and Scandinavia with West or North West winds.
[attachment=123762:25 Nov +168.png]
[b]Alpine Detail[/b]
[CODE]
850Hpa Summary (Noon) , Regional Detail
Sat 26th Nov -2 to +7 +2 in NE Austria, +7 in SW Switzerland
Sun 27th Nov +7 to +11 Highest in Austria, Switzerland border
Mon 28th Nov -1 to +8 -1 in NE Austria, +8 in SW Switzerland
Tues 29th Nov +1 to +8 -1 in SE Austria, +8 in Tyrol
Wed 30th Nov 0 to +7 0 in SW Switzerland, +7 in Tyrol, Warmer South to North
Thurs 1st Dec +2 to +7 +2 in SW Switzerland, +7 in Tyrol, Warmer South to North
Fri 2nd Dec +3 to +6
[/CODE]
[CODE]
0c Isotherm Summary (6am) , Regional Detail
Sat 26th Nov 300m-2000m 300m in North and East, 2000m in South West, 600-1200m generally
Sun 27th Nov 1000m-3000m Localised pockets due to cloud cover
Mon 28th Nov 300m-2000m 300m in Northern Switzerland, 2000m in South West
Tues 29th Nov 300m-2400m 300m in North generally, 2400m in central slice inc Tyrol
Wed 30th Nov 300m-2400m 300m in North and East, 2400m centred around Tyrol and NW Austria
Thurs 1st Dec 600m-2400m 600m-1500m generally, higher centred around Tyrol
Fri 2nd Dec 1500m-2100m Generally
[/CODE]
[CODE]
0c Isotherm Summary (Noon) , Regional Detail
Sat 26th Nov 1200m-3000m 1200m in North East, 3000m South West
Sun 27th Nov 3100m-3600m Highest to South West
Mon 28th Nov 1400m-3000m 1400m in North East, 3000m France
Tues 29th Nov 2400m-2800m Generally
Wed 30th Nov 2000m-3000m 1600-2000m South West, 2600-3000m Austria
Thurs 1st Dec 1600m-2600m 2000-2400m west, 2600m NE Austria
Fri 2nd Dec 1800m-2700m 1800-2100m west, 2700m NE Austria
[/CODE]
[b]Sat 26th Nov[/b]
Mostly dry and settled, High Pressure around 1030mb.
[attachment=123770:25 Nov +24.PNG]
[b]Sun 27th Nov[/b]
Mostly dry and settled, High Pressure around 1024-1028mb.
[attachment=123771:25 Nov +48.PNG]
[b]Mon 28th Nov[/b]
A little precipitation edging into Southern Germany from the north for the morning, Snow Level around 800m, thereafter mostly dry and settled, High Pressure around 1024-1028mb.
[attachment=123772:25 Nov +72.PNG]
[b]Tues 29th Nov[/b]
Mostly dry and settled, High Pressure around 1020 (west) -1028mb (east)
[attachment=123773:25 Nov +96.PNG]
[b]Wed 30th Nov[/b]
Mostly dry and settled, Pressure dropping from the west 1008mb (here) - 1020mb (E Austria)
[attachment=123774:25 Nov +120.PNG]
[b]Thurs 1st Dec[/b]
From early hours, some moderate showers developing for SW Switzerland, Snow Level around 1200m. This precipitation developing more widely during the morning and into the afternoon for the Southern Alps, much of Western Italy and for Southern Switzerland, SL around 1400-1700m, some showers also possible for NW Switzerland, SL around 2200m. Precipitation continuing during the evening and spreading into more central areas of Italy, SL remaining mostly similar.
[attachment=123775:25 Nov +144.PNG]
[b]Fri 2nd Dec[/b]
Precipitation continuing overnight into Friday morning however becoming restricted to Southern Switzerland, Western Italy and the Southern alps, Trois Valleys area of France, SL 1600m+.
This continuing through the day and into the evening for the areas mentioned above, snow levels around 1800-2000m, this is 7 days away and as such detail is very uncertain, but 20cm of snow cannot be ruled out for higher slopes, probably highest on the French Italian border.
[attachment=123776:25 Nov +168.PNG]
[b]Outlook[/b]
There is considerable disagreement between the GFS on which most of the above is based, and the ECM, from around T+120 onwards and into the longer term. ECM goes for the possibility of a decent polar Maritime outbreak from the NW from around next Friday onwards, clearly time will tell which is correct and I will update on this during the week.[/font][/size]
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