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Weather Guide Sunday 22nd To Saturday 28th April 2012 (west Wales And Central Midlands)



[b]Headline: Continuing very unsettled with more rain and showers. Mostly cool.[/b]

We all had a good dose of rain last week, with over an inch for most.
With the set up having been generally showery of late, local variations have occurred, so that for example on Friday morning Lampeter only had a couple of short sharp showers, while inland from Aberystwyth a lot of heavy and prolonged downpours gave almost an inch of rain. Meanwhile the west coast of Pembrokeshire has stayed more or less dry since Wednesday up to Saturday afternoon- lucky for holidaymakers there! As with the previous week hail has been quite a feature where heavier showers have occurred.

The very unsettled theme shows no signs of relenting even into the start of May, with low pressure always close by, so plenty more useful rain for the drought declared Midlands. A complicated guide this week to try and pin the details on so much is happening, so things may not pan out exactly as envisaged below -but is that not always the case!

The showers should have largely died out tonight so clearing skies will give another ground frost for many parts by Sunday morning- we got down to -1c last night here at Llanwnnen. The low that has been hanging around over the UK most of the past week finally fills up during Sunday which we see some more showers knocking about with sunny spells between them. Less chance of a ground frost Sunday night as cloud arrives by the morning. The next low then crosses southern England or the Channel during Monday. Some uncertainty as to how far north the rain will extend from this low, depending on it's exact track, but it could well be a wet day for much of Wales and the Midlands, and a very cool one too, with a fresh east to north-east wind, so temperatures struggling to reach just 10c, very poor for late April.
[attachment=133340:brack0a more showers sunday.gif] [attachment=133341:brack1a v cool wet south Mon.gif] [attachment=133342:Recm722 channel L Mon.gif] [attachment=133343:Rtavn544 how far N for rain Mon.png]

The low is close to SE England on Tuesday so another cool day with sunny intervals and heavy showers in many places. It does though edge away Tuesday night and there should be enough of a lull and clearance to give a slight air frost for most places. Yet another low arrives to our south-west on Wednesday, so that after a dry, bright morning, further cloud and rain will spread up from the south-west during the afternoon and evening accompanied by a fresh to strong SE wind. Needless to say with the wind and rain another cool day, temperatures up to just 10 to 12c at best. Indeed, Wednesday looks like being the wettest day of the coming week.
[attachment=133344:Recm962 lull frost risk Tue night.gif] [attachment=133345:Rtavn9617 frosty Tue night.png] [attachment=133346:brack4 New L SW becoming wet windy Wed.gif] [attachment=133347:Rtavn1084 cool wet Wed.png]

This low pressure area continues to sit to our south-west while filling up at the end of next week. More of same, with sunny spells and showers, these heavy and thundery in places probably right up to the weekend. Milder than of late though with winds more from the south, so at least temperatures close to the late April average reaching 13 to 15c on Friday and perhaps even Saturday too, and no frosts to be concerned about. A great deal of uncertainty in the models 7 days out though and with so much happening this week, and the reality may well turn out rather different.
[attachment=133348:filling L SW Fri showery.png] [attachment=133349:Recm1442 L still SW Fri showery milder.gif]

Meanwhile over Germany, the same low brings deep southerly winds next weekend with temperatures reaching 80f in places there. Wonder how long we will have to wait to see such heat!
[attachment=133350:Recm1922 hot Germany next wend.gif]


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