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Weather Guide Monday 8th To Sunday 14th October 2012



[b]Headline: Mixed; some rain, but dry spells too. temperatures around average[/b]

This weekend's dry weather has been welcome, after rain falling on every day for almost 2 weeks here in west Wales. The Midlands on the other hand had a reasonably dry week until Thursday. A cool start to October, following on from the coolest September for almost 20 years. No real warmth again in the coming week, although as we progress through October we should not expect this really, as Summer rapidly recedes. Another week with rain at times, this though mostly for west Wales, with the Midlands having the better chance of dry days, at least up until Thursday. Wednesday is the most likely day to see widespread dry conditions across Wales and England.

With high pressure over the UK Sunday stays fine and dry, after the early frost, just below zero here this morning. However a low pressure system is out to the south-west of Ireland (this containing the final vestiges of Nadine) so no frost tonight. The fronts from this low attempt to move into SW Britain during the early part of this week but do not make much headway against the relatively high pressure still over northern England. So cloud increasing overnight and some rain at times for west Wales after midnight, but staying dry for the Midlands. Fronts stuck over SW Britain through Monday, so a cloudy, cool day with rain or drizzle on and off, most of this probably being only light . Maxima just 11 to 13c. The far north of Wales and the north Midlands more likely to remain generally dry on Monday, so maybe escaping the rain in Bangor and Derby?
[attachment=141258:brack0a fronts stuck over SW.gif][attachment=141259:Rtavn424 rain times cool Mon.png]

Throughout Tuesday and Wednesday these same fronts are stuck more or less over SW England and south Wales, but with a ridge over northern, then eastern England it is anticipated that the fronts will for the most part be weak. Plenty of cloud during Tuesday and Wednesday for west Wales, a little rain or drizzle times, especially for SW Wales, with NW Wales more likely to stay dry for the most part. Likewise, the Midlands is just distant enough from the fronts to the SW to see a lot of dry weather through Tuesday and Wednesday, just the odd spot of rain really here. One proviso is that the fronts may pep up at times, or edge slightly further NE to bring some more widespread rain for a time perhaps? Temperatures close to the early October average reaching 13 or 14c for Tuesday and Wednesday, although with a better chance of brightness over the Midlands we could see 16c in places here. Frost very unlikely too with all the cloud about.
[attachment=141260:brack1a still stuck SW R northern parts.gif][attachment=141261:Recm722 tr against R Tue to Wed.gif]

Changes for Thursday as a deep low pressure over Iceland takes control. This sends a trough slowly east across the UK during Thursday and Friday, with rain spreading east through Thursday, and with west Wales in particular set for quite a wet, windy day. Still some brightness ahead of the rain for the Midlands, and with warmer upper atmosphere air, temperatures could get to 17c in places, although no higher than 15c for wetter west Wales.
[attachment=141262:brack4 fronts and rain from W Thu.gif][attachment=141263:Recm962 Tr from W Thus brings rain across and milder air.gif][attachment=141264:Rtavn1204 wet Thu esp WW.png]

This is the point where greater model uncertainty comes into play.The rain lingers into Thursday night, especially for the Midlands, but SHOULD be clear by Friday morning. Friday then a cooler day with sunny intervals and some showers, mainly over west Wales these. There is though the possibility that the trough develops a low close to eastern England during Friday, which could keep the rain going longer for the Midlands. Temperatures only 10 to 12c for Friday at best. All that can be said about next weekend is that one way or another the outcome appears unsettled with some further rain at times and most likely on the cool side.
[attachment=141265:Recm1202 Tr over E by Fri.gif][attachment=141266:Rtavn1321 cool rain to few showers Fri.png][attachment=141267:Rtavn1441 lingering low Sat.png][attachment=141268:Rtavn1681 unsettled weekend.png][attachment=141269:Recm1682 unsettled weekend.gif]


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yes a good summary but fronts to our west and south /west could put a spanner in the works , personally i think the fronts will push a little further north east , but as mentioned typically autumnal . beyond next friday very hard to pin down .
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Agreed hence my proviso, however a strong signal since Friday in the models for the fronts to be killed off early this week, as opposed to last Thursday when we were headed for a very wet spell!
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just had a look at charts since thurs and as you pointed out there was a strong signal on friday and sat for these fronts to be killed off ,iv only spent brief moments since thurs of last wk [4th] taking just a quick look as looking after elderly rel .just goes to show you cant take things for granted as iv learned to my peril over the yrs .reminds me a bit like an occasion back in a winter yrs ago ,the first front brings a bit of snow the next a bit more ,the next dives over france more .but more waiting in the wings .i will have a good Gander at charts before posting next time .regards Legritter.
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