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Weather guide Monday 18th to Sunday 24th March 2013 (Midlands/ West Wales)



[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Cold/ cool: Showers or longer spells of rain, sleet or snow; night frost and some fog[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]So far March has delivered pleasant warmth, severe frosts and snow! Everything but the kitchen sink again in the coming week (excepting warmth that is). Spring is still on hold, the hard frosts stunting most growth, the Daffs having a real struggle to bloom still. Coventry had it's coldest March day since 1970 on Monday managing a high of just +0.7c (cf +0.3c). On Thursday morning Llanwnnen breached -10c, colder than any official UK weather stations! The rains proper returned on Friday to Ceredigion after an absence of a month, only 5mm having accumulated in the previous 29 days. Then yesterday afternoon, very heavy snow showers affected this area putting down an inch in just half hour. Snow was still lying this morning at Llanwnnen making it the first 'day of lying snow' in March since 2006, although snow lay briefly here on April 6th 2008. Another chilly week ahead and again the threat of snow in places, especially later when high ground could be seeing blizzard conditions.[/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Heavy snow in parts of the Midlands this morning, parts of southern England have had 4 inches! However for West Wales it's bright after the early fog, although some wintry showers likely through this afternoon, don't be surprised to see some snow and hail in the heavier showers. Maxima today generally between 5 and 8c, although colder for parts of the East Midlands where snow and rain lasts longest into this afternoon. With a very complicated complex low pressure over the UK and containing cold air, I would not rule out further surprise snow events cropping up locally tonight, so a few more of us could wake to a fresh covering on Monday morning. Many of us waking to a frost and also fog in places on Monday, irrespetive of whether it has snowed or not, then a bright day of sunny spells and some further showers. Very little wind on Monday so any showers could be slow- moving with hail and thunder, although any snow should be restricted to the higher hills. Less cool, maxima of 7 to 9c, so feeling pleasant enough in sunny spells.[/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Most of the showers die out on Monday night with clearing skies so another frosty one with fog patches forming quite widely again too. A bright or foggy start to Tuesday, then a few showers developing into the afternoon, before a front over northern parts edges down later in the day. Colder air once more trying to edge down, there will be rain or sleet on this front, that again may turn to snow in places during Tuesday evening and night, mainly, but not exclusively for high ground. So, once more some areas awaking to a snow cover on Wednesday morning. These repeated snow threats should they come to fruition would be turning this into an unusually cold and snowy March! Our resident low has filled up by Wednesday with a legacy of cloud and showery rain, sleet or snow in places, which should be dying out by the afternoon. A cold and mainly cloudy day on Wednesday, highs only between 4 and 6c. [/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=164954:PPVE89 (1) complex cold L surprise snow tonight possibles.png][attachment=164955:h850t850eu Mon flabby low little wind showers.png][attachment=164956:PPVJ89 filling L south Occ N some showers or rain, snow.png][attachment=164957:ecmt850.072 filling L colder snow threat Tues night.png][/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By mid week there is large blocking cold high from Greenland to Scandinavia, while Atlantic lows attempt to move into the UK. In the meantime for Wednesday night into Thursday we are in a 'No Man's Land' weather wise as the battle between cold and milder takes shape, suggesting more snow possibilities even to end the week! Quite a sharp frost for Wednesday night as skies clear, down to -5c in places. A cold day with plenty of sunshine on Thursday, it should stay dry for the Midlands, but cloud and perhaps rain arriving into West Wales during the evening. Highs disappointing again at just 5 to 7c.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=164961:PPVO89 let the battle commence Thu.png][/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A 'Battle Royale' for Friday and much of next weekend with the cold block over Scandinavia most reluctant to give way, and directing a fresh incursion of very cold air over northern Britain. Meanwhile the low pressure area west of Ireland through this period sends rain fronts into SW and central parts. Suffice to say that Friday into the weekend looks pretty cold and windy, with spells of wet weather at times. The big question is will this rain turn to snow? With some heavy rain around through Friday and Saturday, coupled with a drag of cold SE to east winds over Wales and the Midlands, some of this rain is likely to turn to snow in places, in fact for higher ground there could be near blizzard conditions at times through this period. This is quite likely to be causing some travel disruption, more especially for the Peaks and above 250m across Wales. Most of SW Wales will be wondering what all the fuss is about with plain wet and windy weather for lowland Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion, although even the hills here may see snow at times. A very cold, raw day on Friday, maxima between 2 and 5c, feeling really cold. [/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=164958:metslp.120 block vs Atl Fri wind rain hill snow.png][attachment=164960:h850t850eu battle FRi wet windy cold.png][attachment=164959:ecmt850.144 battle snow threat Fri to Sat.png][/size][/font][attachment=164965:ukmaxtemp blizzards high up FRi v cold.png]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]For the weekend and GFS has less cold air winning out on Saturday meaning just rain or showers, but then drags cold air back down for Sunday with at least a hill snow likelihood. ECM though maintains the battle throughout so a real risk of heavy snowfalls in places if this model is correct for next weekend. [/size][/font]
[attachment=164962:h850t850eu less cold wins out Sat.png][attachment=164963:ecmt850.168 v cold Sun more snow threats SW.png][attachment=164964:mgram_Birmingham cold outlook.png]


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