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AWT'S Winter Forecast 2013/2014

A Winter's Tale


[b]DECEMBER...[/b]A mild-very mild month with long periods of south westerly winds. More unsettled in more northern and western areas with little sunshine and persistent rainfall. During the latter half of the month there may be a more progressive outlook with a trend of short cooler and showery spells - especially in northern and western areas - aswell as a risk of the odd gale. Temperatures 0.75 to 2.0C above average. CET 6.3C. Rainfall 85% of the average in southern and eastern areas, around 100% of the average further north and west. Sunshine 0-5% below in the NW, perhaps 0-5% above in SE.

[b]JANUARY...[/b]A closer to average month, if not a little below average. Unsettled for much of the first half with plenty of wind and rain, a mixture of mild and cold spells (some high ground snow from time to time and occasional drier, settled days. Generally less active atlantic around mid month onwards with a trend for below average conditions during latter part of month with a risk of frost and lowland snowfall - especially in northern or even eastern areas - potential frontal snowfall in western areas towards end of month. Temperature 0.75C below to 0.25C above average. CET 3.6C. Rainfall 75-100% of the average. Sunshine 5% above average.

[b]FEBRUARY...[/b]Close to average or slightly below. A return to unsettled, atlantic weather for spells but generally staying fairly cold - especially in the northern areas - and cold, anticylconic periods inbetween - occasional milder days (prominently in southern and western areas and especially for periods during the second half of the month). Temperatures 0.6 below average to 0.5 above average. CET 3.4C. Rainfall 70-95%. Sunshine 0-10% above average.


Second week: Mild to very mild. Drier and some brighter conditions in more southern and eastern areas whilst more widespread and persistent cloud cover in northern and western areas with more rain and a stronger wind.
Third week: Generally staying mild - more changeable with spells of wind and rain for all areas but a chance of brief, cooler interludes from the west.
Final week: Staying unsettled and changeable. Brief settled spells with some frost overnight inbetween depressions - a risk of some heavy rain and gales. Fairly mild but a chance of a brief northerly towards the end of the month.


First week: Very unsettled with wet and windy conditions. Some colder days with a risk of snow in the north but also some milder air at times too.
Second week: Starting unsettled with some wet and windy conditions - then becoming a little quieter and cooler with maybe a risk of snow towards the end of the period.
Third week: Starting fairly settled and cold with some frost and some snow at times. Becoming a bit more unsettled from the west but staying quite chilly with a risk of further snow in the north.
Final week: Changeable to begin with some chilly conditions at times - especially in the north - but it will turn more settled and much colder with potentially harsh frosts and some snow. February - more detailed forecast. First week. Unsettled with some spells of rain from showers and fronts and some strong winds at times. Temperatures close to or slightly above average. Second week. Initially very wet and windy but turning a settled from the south bringing a risk of frost before turning wet, windy and mild. Third week. Unsettled and chilly in the north, settled and mild in the se. Generally unsettled with more wet and windy conditions but with some drier - and in the north - colder interludes. Final week. Remaining unsettled - particularly in the nw - but perhaps drier in the se at times. Further changeable conditions with some colder interludes possible.


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