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Barry's December Forecast



[size=6]Barry's December Forecast[/size]

As I am bored, I thought for a bit of fun I would make a December forecast - not to be taken seriously! although I'll try and make it as accurate as possible!
Having read through some of the posts from the experts over on the stratosphere thread, I believe the Polar Vortex will continue to be attacked throughout December, and although this doesn't necessarily mean cold for the UK, I think we will get a bit of luck and it will effect the conditions positively - if your after cold for the UK. I don't see a repeat of December 2010 - far from it. But I do believe December will be a below average month for the UK.


In the first week of December, I can see signs starting to show in the operational models of our first proper cold period. During the end of November, most of the Polar Vortex will have moved east over to Siberia. I think the Sceuro block we currently have, will transfer more to a Scandinavian block in the first week of December. The block will begin to get more robust and the Atlantic will start to lose the battle against the block and will be repelled back. Winds will veer from the South-East to begin with, this will be a fairly cold flow as the continent has started to cool from the end of November onwards. Temperatures will begin to creep below the average, for the south of the UK temperatures will range from 6-7C, and for the North of the UK temperatures will range from 3-5C. Precipitation over the south will be as rain, in the North with altitude the rain will gradually turn to snow. Snow in the North at low levels will be mostly of rain, although I wouldn't discount snow getting to lower levels at times, but it will be a brief affair.

Into the second week of December, winds will veer from a more Easterly direction, and as a result temperatures will fall. Temperatures will range from 4-6C in the south of the UK, In the North temperatures will range from 2-4C. The snow/rain line will get down to a lower altitude, snow will probably fall above 200/300m, but below that and especially at sea level precipitation will continue to fall as rain for both the south and North of the UK. The NE of Scotland may be the the only exception to this. Temperatures will fall widely below freezing under clear skies, and hard ground frosts will be a common feature.

Week 3-4 will follow later...



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