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Snowynorth

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Everything posted by Snowynorth

  1. The NMM models show sufficient mixed layer energy during the overnight period. Once this trough weakens we see another slide up during the early hours, could be very interesting for southern and south-eastern parts of England.
  2. In bold yes exactly what I said on my earlier post. I just noticed your location, seems you're talking from an IMBY point of view, I'm talking about UK wide, big difference! As I said, upper air temperature alone does not determine snowfall... You need to look at parameters at the surface and between 850hpa not just at the 850hpa temp..
  3. Purely an example for the time of year. Northerlies have a much better track, if you get a decent feed/flow you will get less modification. You can get some decent features in northerlies still, not mildy sh*t as you said but they don't deliver to southern areas..
  4. Hi ER I think you're not understanding the point I'm trying to make. It is not just the upper air temperatures that defines a cold spell or guarantees snow, it is also vitally important you have other variables favorable down to the surface. freezing level, dew points and WBT's. At this time of the year a north easterly or easterly without Europe being pretty cold is completely different to a an east or north easterly during December when Scandanavia and Russia is very cold. The North Sea temperatures are warmer than average after a relatively mild winter, couple this with not so much cold pooling to the east then you will have significant modification when the air reaches the United Kingdom. We would need to see much colder pooling to the east and much lower upper 850's for it to bring any significant wintry weather, as a result conditions at the surface would be more favorable, take the freezing level for example. If we can somehow get a second bit of the cherry albeit with a better flow and Scandanavia/Europe cooling down with some very cold upper 850's the temperature gradient will be much greater with warm SST's which would more than likely lead to convective snow showers in such setup. At the moment, despite an average of -7 850's this just won't cut it. The perfect setup this time of the year would be a northerly!
  5. Just a typical cold spell, nothing unseasonal and nothing noteworthy. Generally dry throughout the week, pleasant winter sun during the day with harsh frosts overnight. Very little in the way of precipitation and for areas where precipitation is greatest (that area of low pressure) it will be of rain. Then when the low pulls away and draws in a more easterly flow Europe isn't cold enough so what you'll see is wintry showers a majority of which will be of rain within 30-40 miles of coastal areas in the north, east and south-east. Europe needs to cool down a lot for anything noteworthy later in the week which I suspect it won't.
  6. GFS has been shocking of late and the ECM has been the model that's managed to end up being correct.. I have more faith in the ECM than any other model and I believe again it will be the ECM that nails it.
  7. If that's the case it highlights how desperate we are and what a poor winter it has been. Don't get me wrong we see colder air but the northerly flow topples very quickly on that chart!
  8. It is pointless at the moment looking into detail or even looking on each model run the snow risk/precipitation type charts. The models do not have a firm grip yet so you would just be wasting your time chasing the snow, get the cold in and then look for features via high resolution models. The problem with the 6z is the jetstream. The Atlantic gets through because of the strength and orientation of the jet next Wednesday leading the system not to stall as its catching the jet and coming right through, 00z's had a weaker jet and better positioning. Always a concern when we have no favourable blocking in place. I wouldn't look past Tuesday until at least Saturday and Sunday. Shorter term there is of course a risk of snow showers for north sea facing coasts, more especially Scotland, NE England and Yorkshire/Lincs coast Sunday into Monday before high pressure cuts the flow off..
  9. Fridays low would bring more of a risk than Saturdays, it is actually the other way around. You have the colder air undercutting better further north but I suppose as its not the south it doesn't matter..
  10. Thanks for your thoughts and thanks for the the link, I wasn't aware of this. So they use the AO thought as well. I have linked the NAO also but only works with AO values of under -0.70. All very fascinating to say the least.
  11. HI Guys, I released an article yesterday linking strong heights in the Arctic during July, to cold UK winters. Also there seems to be a link to Strat warming's as the years linked had either a sudden stratospheric warming (major) or multiple minor warming's. All the information within can be found via the link but I must say going on my findings, 2015 certainly looks very interesting. http://www.chorleyweather.com/strong-arctic-summer-heights-linked-to-cold-uk-winter/
  12. Hi pbweather, You seem to missing the overall point of the analogue. The years shown are for the winter period running from December to February not just December!!! Also as the winter period runs through from one year to the next, the analogue takes the year that Febuary ends in. For example, 2010 was in fact the winter of 2009/10 and 1977 was indeed 76/77 and so on. As for the results, if you go back through the years in the analogue you will find that all the winters had at least 2 out of the 3 winter months, with below average temperatures and at least 1 month with well below average. Regards, Stu.
  13. Hi guys, I've took all the sub -1 OPI years coupled with an easterly QBO and produced a 500 mb height anomaly plot for the winter period. The results speak for themselves!!!
  14. i totally agree, I have done a little research on this and found that warm springs tend to produce weak summers ie colder and wetter. Vise versa if the spring is colder then the summer trends warmer. I think the solar decline will be apparent this summer and expect a similar pattern to 2009/10/11. This current pattern will change from mid march and i can only see the Azores high moving up and hence dry and warm. Cant see any easterlies forming.
  15. Some very interesting times ahead as far as cold lovers are concerned, a negative outlook on the AO coupled with a warming event that may split the vortex on the cards. Also it looks like a tri-pole set up developing in the north Atlantic. All good pointers towards a cold spell. I will say however that it maybe end of Jan into feb before we see any deep cold digging in!!!
  16. Xmas week looks cold to me. We will still be under low pressure dominance however due to a high pressure forcing its way in to acrtic from the north side ( Bering straight area ) it will force colder air in the low pressure nr the uk. As a big high pressure says dominant in Russia the low becomes near stationary and weakens but starts to pull in a northerly air flow for xmas week. We are not talking bitter cold but cold enough for snow and far from a mild scenario that everybody seems obsessed with. Gfs, ecmwf,gem,jma all have this high pressure building scenario.
  17. GFS last few runs have a high pressure forcing into the Arctic. We may see some cold weather Xmas week as we get more of a northerly pattern as the low pressure are forced south. One to watch closely.
  18. Im gong for a northerly blast ( from a transient low ) with wintry showers in every major city so the bookies have to pay out!!!!
  19. Some interesting model runs today. All point towards a high pressure pushing into the north pole. One to keep an eye on with 4 models suggesting it
  20. Yes thats why I posted it. Just can't understand why it's run that outcome too many times
  21. Cant get my head round the fact that the cfs keeps trying to push a high pressure over Scandinavia. I know people say cfs is inconsistent blah blah but it has regularly pointed to high around this region for x mas week. This model must have picked something up or else why would it show these runs!!!! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013121006/run1m2/cfs-0-348.png?06 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013121100/run1m/cfs-0-366.png?00
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