Kentspur

Mike Poole damianslaw EC46 showing Greenland and Iceland Blocking and introduces colder temps with a more North of East flow after this milder period by late March typically didn't 2008 do this also after the very mild February?

winterof79 Thats a funny coincidence as im off to the West Midlands late on Friday night to my friends would be lovely to wake up to a white blanket! Hoping to see some sites up that way Warwick Castle looks cool. Ive heard mixed reviews of Cadburys world damianslaw EC46 showing Greenland and Iceland Blocking and more North of East flow after this supposed S&SEly flow by late March

Tim Bland Hope so im off to the west midlands for a few days to my friends on that day lol slightly more chance of seeing any there than in mt low lying snowshield of an area not that many parts of England have seen much this winter

Are white flags in or out now? A promising day 10 ECM gotta laugh

The day 10 ECM shows a NWly 22nd Feb but if you look at the GFS ensembles this is too early for the main plunge to atleast get the mean to -5c 850 HPA around 3 days after ECM ends, so unless we see a progression of potential brought forward for me any possible faint interesting a cold spell is still out of reach of ECM/UKMO&GEM except in EC clusters and extended ensembles etc thats if anyone has anyone has any patience left. In the mean time a warm week ahead for Europe once more

Well there you have it lots of bashing of ECM and UKMO and praise for the American model but GFS 12z op ended up a huge mild outlier still a downwards ensembles trend

Blimey a Day 9 instead of day 10 chart from ECM with -6c uppers over the Eastern side of the country is the model feeling alright?

CFS keeps persisting with this cold Easterly lately and it's not like a million miles away but it is just the CFS. With the downwelling from the SSW to come I can see us having some dramatic changes so I'm not holding up the white flag for winter just yet. Hopefully the shorter range models will come up with something for us before March proper is here

CFS brings the beast home is this where ECM&co will eventually lead us hope so! No lack of cold pools there! Solidly -12c 850s across England and Wales. Only 13 days away

The 850s don't seem to add up to the actual pressure charts shown on GFS again its on the mild end if not an outlier +12 around Norway! What the??!

These GFS warm outliers appear to be nonstop on recent runs let's hope its not the trend setter like it was when the last cold spell fell apart!

Looking at a location inside the Met warning area- Kidderminster near Birmingham you can see the difference with precipitation between ECM 0z &GFS 6z amounts, but also the GFS ensembles show a complete lack of snow unfortunately on Thursday this doesn't show ECM snow risk on Wetterzentrale

2 days in a row the 6z the pick of the fi charts for me perfect ENEly set up for the South the Midlands and Eastern England hope its the trend setter GFS run

Beautiful 6z for Eastern and SE England extending to the Midlands we finally get the infamous Sausage high!

northwestsnow short term pain for long term gain look out west heights arising

northwestsnow Promising start to the day slider moving across Wales and the south& looks likely Midlands/EA if it went on further and further north surely too

@Anthony Burden Thats a real shame they've dropped the Easterly wording for most of the country much less chance of snow for places that haven't seen any. I've a friend in Aberdeen who was fed up of the snow I was wishing it down here but it didn't work lol sods law it goes to where its not wanted. If that's the case that the Met are only seeing dry Northerlies for most of us, so be it I'm still hopeful as late winter early Spring we do always seem to have them much more commonly and what with all the background signals AO and NAO going negative. Fading + IOD El Nino winter im sure we will see something crop up. I can't remember the last time we had snow in January possibly 2013, February was much more recent

I hope the yellow ensemble members on GEM is the trend setter... . Looks very mild then perhaps a little closer to average atm on most ensembles

I was working in Grove Park that day and there was even more snow there than in Dartford I agree south London Surrey did the best but I was happy with our 6.5-7inches back home none the less the most I'd seen since 1991 when I opened the back door and snow came up to my neck as a 4year old lol. 2010 we had double 2009s amount though it fell over 2.5days

Right in the south north ir NW winda are dry as hell for us usually. We all just need a proper Easterly and the goods will come Met mention February so plenty of time still

Ooh such similarities my nans brother (nan and him were from East Sussex) did that job too! Sadly he died of a quick growing brain tumour when I was young around his 50s but everyone says I look a lot like nans little bro and nans dad so I guess I must look more like my Sussex side of my family than my Grandads East Kent side. I've done an extensive family tree and actually found even more names in Sussex than I have found in Kent gone right back to Hastings when the Normans landed on some lines etc. I might have seen a few flakes of the white stuff if my family had stayed there lol

Must be some stealth flurries haha Exactly my thoughts coulda spared us 10mins extra in bed but won't risk it tomorrow looks much colder haha

SE London to be precise lol Rain alarm went off and told me I'm close to snow flurries here in Bexley to your east too

Thermometer says 3.7c here not sure what the peak is/was about what was forecast here on the apps

N London I find a half decent spot for our region to get snow. Last year it was sweetspot in Dec 22 pretty much. Then December 17 which was rain sleet south of the Thames here. Late Jan 2021 I think we missed out London had a good covering sleety rain here. when I lived in Herts was always 1.5-2c colder than by the Thames here Feb 06 I think I saw twice as much snow in Herts& N London as back in Kent from a Channel low and lasted 2 days longer up north of the Thames too! The rare October 2008 snow only settled Central London northwards too I believe Cheshire gap made it there! Nothing here then there's many other north of the M4/ Thames events. Jan 05 I believe there was also a smaller snow event that made it to where I was living 04 to 07 in Herts but missed back home. Prior to this era I remember I was often too far West my mum in Medway would often see NElies deliver snowfalls that narrowly missed Gravesend where I am now and Dartford where I'm from. It feels like here relies on the 1% perfect set up to see any snowfall were always milder than surrounding areas too which doesn't help nor being flat in the urban Thames flood plain other parts of the SE have more elevation including a lot of North and South London so any marginal setups fail to deliver here even if nearby places get some. I hope we all get a proper snowy Easterly soon I really do!