ThunderStorms

I need rain in South of Portugal !! I had 30 mm in the last 3 months :lol: I completely lost confidence in the models. The seasonal say it will be extremely rainy, but the medium-term models say it's bullonions and that the drought is to continue! Here everything is completely dry ... nor is green herbs, just dry ... I lost confidence in the people of the forums, models of short and medium term, seasonal forecasts If you want visit Algarve, it´s beuatiful and you have sun all time !!

In uk, winter in my opinion can be mild or cold, maybe mild in western regions and cold in eastern regions !! About rainfall for nothern europe, i think the MetOffice word is: "I DONT KNOW"

I liked this prediction !! Very well explained, so much that i understood ... Lol For me in Portugal i think this is very good news !! Bad weather with very wind, rain and thunderstorms .... I like, thank you Stewart !!

Four your country: Dez - very bad weather in the first 15 days, with mild weather, and in the second half of Dezember i think you have a pattern with cold and dry, but with some bad weather too .. Jan - a cold pattern, with some episodes of wetter weather too .. Fev - very cold days for UK !! For Portugal Dec - I hope the first half of the rainiest months in the north than the south, with no lock on Greenland, then a reversal of the negative NAO for the second half in bad weather especially in central and southern Portugal! Above average rainfall across the country and the average temperature Jan - I hope one months like the second half of December, with tb few episodes of dry and cold especially in the second half of the month! Above normal precipitation in central and southern media in the north. FEB - I expect a cold month, but at the same rainy weather with values of above normal precipitation in particular in Central and South! I still a month on average throughout the country although it may be above average in central and southern Portugal! Good luck for me, that i live in the south of Portugal!

I think this is good news !! The major models suggest anomalies for south-western of Europe, specially after this mid-month !! These models suggest High Anomalies for North-western of Europe (Greenland) .... I am optimist for my country, and for your country too !!!

I do not believe in modern ages, but even if you believe what makes you say that every year now have temperatures always above average. Nothing, absolutely nothing ... but I'm no expert like you and sorry to tell you, but they are too concentrated with El Nino and La Nina! The influence of El Nino in Europe is still quite fuzzy, and I believe the pattern that dominates over here in Europe are the SSTs, which currently has a strong anomaly in the middle of the Atlantic and positive chain of Canary! For Portugal when this happens often result in above average rainfall and is usually associated with a negative NAO! Obviously everything is connected in ocean atmosphere but I think the most important here is the SSTs. But I think in the next 4 weeks here in the south of Portugal is still not very rainy and the United Kingdom will be more rain before entering a drier in January, and colder! I believe in a negative NAO much more pronounced in the second half of December with a Jet Southwest to the Mediterranean! I hope I'm not wrong because we are in the south of Portugal with many problems with drought! What do you think about this ... it is just a theory !! G. P. ??

I think this is very positive and is exactly what was missing so that we have here in Portugal the winter will be old .... with heavy rain, wind and thunder! I believe that with the latest signs of either El Nino or all adjacent to this fenonemo with a low angular momentum of these factors and the stage is set to have a very interesting winter in Portugal and the United Kingdom! There is faith!

I did not like your prediction Ian! However I must point out that it is the same model IRI / GMAO that point to the same standard that you in December and January. As I live in Portugal this pattern gives me another dry year here in southern Portugal which is becoming a habit unfortunately! I'm curious to see what gives European models IRI Ibimet and METOFFICE! I really hope they are different from yours and that they will stick to the Americans!

Hi how are you ? I dont understand much of this ... but i read the excellent piece of work of Stewart and i have a question for you !! In the current conditions how this prediction affect the Iberian Peninsule, speccially Portugal !! we have a normal precipitation / above normal precipitation /very above precipitation ??? Anybody can help me ???