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cooling climate

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Everything posted by cooling climate

  1. A change to much colder wintry conditions courtesy of stratosphere warming continues to gain momentum and should soon be in range of the ECM model.H500 anomaly charts and ncep 8-15 day charts should soon pick up this change.
  2. A stretched and displaced vortex this winter left some areas warmer (Spitzberg especially) and other areas colder but with a good possibility of a colder spring and summer again we should see the positive trend in multi sea ice, volume, area and extent continue with 2012 standing out as the anomaly rather than the trend or norm.
  3. Yes growing signs of a cold snap (spell) developing perhaps around the 19th onwards. Good strat warming forecast which would probably be the instigator of this and could possibly lead to colder and perhaps wintry incursions during April as well. Loving the dry spell but we have plenty of time for warmth and a couple of spring snowfalls would not go amiss.
  4. Regardless of what has happened in the last three months it has no bearing on what will happen over the coming weeks and I for one am still hopeful of seeing some snow,perhaps even laying snow before March or April is out.
  5. The GFS starting to consistently model what looks very much like a final warming. This May well be worth following as high latitude blocking can still deliver something noteworthy and potent in mild to late March.
  6. Winter 88/89 has always stuck out for me as being a memorable winter for all the wrong reasons very mild,wet and windy but this winter has over shadowed that I think. Stratosphere wise though they were two very different winters.WInter89 the vortex was very strong and positioned in situ over Greenland and the pole. This winter the vortex has been displaced with one section as we know over south east Canada which is not such a bad position had we had a negative QBOand more in the way of stratosphere warnings. We also saw persistent northeast Pacific ridges which is also a good synoptic (think 09/10 for example) to have had,had we seen greater warming and more in the way of blocking. An Alaskan vortex is normally a killer for winter as it promotes zonality across the state's which normally means similar for us. I could be way off the mark here but I believe a moderate to high active sun this winter led to the very strong QBO which scuppered the chances for stronger stratosphere warnings and blocking.
  7. Near to the start of this winters strat thread I linked to a recent paper which challenges the theory that during solar max and w QBO sudden strat warmings are more common. I believe there is strong data to support the cold strat w QBO theory.
  8. The models more in line with what I would expect to see going forward. Expect to see more upgrades in future runs for a colder and perhaps more wintry outlook.
  9. With over 50 years behind me this will be the first winter where there has not been a single flake of snow during the three winter months (Dec, Jan and Feb). I thought 88/89 was bad. I am reasonably confident however of seeing something more wintry during March however with much more in the way of northern blocking.
  10. To answer all three questions in one I will say I am not denying there has been warming but that stoped some 16 years ago. Before then there has been cooling and warming periods which would tie in with natural climate cycles PDO, AMO, NAM, enso etc but the warming we have seen in the eighties and nineties I believe was due to a very active sun lag effect during the 20th century which is now going in the opposite direction. The IPCC said the warming would go on unabated reaching Xc by the year blah, blah. Then when the warming went into hiatus as it has done they ran around like headless chickens trying to explain it and finally came up with enso and PDO cycle to explain the pause. How come they missed this. The truth is they probably didn't it is just a poor excuse for the missing warming. There are so many other things I could go into but to tell you the truth I really can't be bothered I know the warmists have their blinkered view and the sceptics have theirs and to keep going over and over the same arguments is tidious to the extreme. If there had been warming for the past 15 years or more then there would be no argument but there hasn't pure and simple.
  11. You do not have to explain anything to me Voidy. There has been no warming for years apart from small fluctuations in temperature up and down,but if the sun is to go into hibernation ( most pointers are looking that but you probably can not see that either) then there is only one way the temperatures are going and that is not up.
  12. Yes you are right. The way its worded is not very good but as you say a westward movement of air is of course a easterly or negative QBO.
  13. Climate change has been going on for millenia and will continue to do so.
  14. Ian Pennell who opened a thread in the Autumn entitled late Autumn and winter 2013/14 mild stormy short cold snaps later. His long range forecast made on the 20th of October was virtually spot on and the reasoning behind it was also excellent, 95/100 I think. One of the most accurate forecasts I have read in years.
  15. You are getting very fond of putting people down. Do you remember Mr Ian pennell from the late Autumn and Winter thread 2013/14 who made a very well reasoned and explained forcast back in October 2013. He then updated on the 3rd of December saying that he forecast for the winter was looking very good to which you replied "Come on you COMIC its the 4th of December and you seriously believe your forecast is correct for WINTER after just 3 days today being the 4th. His forecast has been virtually spot on together with his reasoning and made more incredible by the fact that it was made in October. I wonder if you will take your blinkers off for long enough to acknowledge this and withdraw your insulting comment. Netweather would do well to sign him up for their longrange forecasting team.As for the Meto I love the way they portray themselves as all knowing after the event. May be they should contact Mr Pennell themselves.
  16. Your right of course.Just read the article and they are still banging on about the fallacy of global warming. There has been a hiatus of warming for the past 16 plus years and there own predictive forcasts over the last several years have all been found to be to warm compared to what actually verified.They go on to say and I quote "the warming we are already committed to over the next few decades". Does that mean that even if the climate which hasn't warmed shows a cooling trend they will ignore it and continue to promote global warming. In summary they say it is down to a number of varibles although my bet would be that the very strong westerly QBO played an important part and perhaps along with a sun that was at times asleep and the next very active which may have aided the strength of the QBO. On the BBC one morning last week they blamed it on a cyclone in the southeast pacific in November that led to the winter we have had. Had a laugh over that one.
  17. John Search has been studying volcano's for years and I can not imagine he would tweet something like that off the top of his head without data or satelite imagery at hand.
  18. John Search has tweeted that the sulphur dioxide plume from the Kelut volcano is the largest in the world for many years.
  19. My long range forecast for winter 13/14 for the UK bombed. There was though one part of my forecast that was very accurate and that was persistent ridging in the north east Pacific with the vortex setting up home between Hudsons Bay and southeast Canada.I was expecting a more - AO though similar to 1977 which was my undoing. I don't know how many remember the winter of 77 which was brutal for the midwest and northeast US but being a -QBO we saw much more in the way of northern blocking which is why even though the vortex was in a similar area we had a completely different winter. Of course there were other factors involved as well such as enso etc. Anyways back to my forecast for the UK this winter and I will have to award myself a big fat 0.
  20. I think you may have your wires crossed. I have said for days now we would see a more amplified pattern with heights to the north/northeast developing due to the strat warming we had. This would develope from mid February along with colder weather which I then put back to the last third of February several days ago. I also said that we would not see strong blocking like 2010 etc but shallower heights but heights none the less.
  21. The outputs this afternoon do not look that great from a cold perspective but I do not believe everything that I see in the model output and would suggest that what the models are now showing may well be underplaying the amplification in the pattern ahead. T120 onwards is still very much up in the air so to speak (no pun intended).
  22. Unfortunately with the example you give of end of December 84 there was a major warming with a SSW in early Jan and an imediate trop response. In fact it was in a very similar locale to the warming we have just had albeit far stronger.
  23. Sounds like selective memory to me. There have been several at least in my recollection. It is for this reason I do not subscribe to your methology. Back to the here and now and the heights and amplified pattern that I have been banging on about since the start of the month is trying to exert itself in the NWP charts. The ups and downs especially by the ECM (again) may mean they are rushing this slightly which is not uncommon when the models try to bring in a more amplified or blocked pattern. I still stand by my forecast of a much colder last third of February and on into March.
  24. I certainly would not be shouting about the ECM this winter. Compared to what we have come to expect from the model I think it has had a very poor season. I said in an earlier post that the amplification between t120 and t168 is far from settled and because of this it is harder to look beyond a week with any confidence. The pub run holds a lot of interest tonight and may well be showing the ECM the way forward. Then again it could be just that the pub run.
  25. There seems to be a lot of potential (yes that word again) around the t120 to t168 mark for amplification to the north. Until the models agree on the amount of amplification it is hard to judge what will happen beyond this time frame. Another 24hours modeling should give a clearer picture as to where we are headed in the next week or so.
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