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Everything posted by sebastiaan1973
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Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem
sebastiaan1973 replied to Nick F's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
johncam No I have not. -
Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem
sebastiaan1973 replied to Nick F's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Scott Ingham 12th of february -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
AO- In Dutch we say 'voorgeschiedenis'. The setting before we get an easterly is indeed not good for cold later on. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think it is time to watch the stratosphere closely. GFS0h delivers a split, combine this with a blocking in NW-Europe and you get downwelling till the end of march, start of april. https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/1/373/2020/ -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That is the air pressure anomaly -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Truly remarkable. The positive NAO regiem is falling back to a staggering low number at 20th of february in the ENS. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
EC46 cold. Massive upgrade from a couple of days ago. A dip to 15 m/s. The border of a weak stratospheric polar vortex is 20 m/s. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
@BarnetBlizzard It has some credit, as EFC46 is hinting in this direction for some time. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
@Daniel* i agree with you. Together with GFS oper some days later, they seem to me excellent charts (besides far away) -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The chance for a positive NAO regime seems rather small. pdf2svg-worker-commands-788bdf985c-8zvvc-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-G8j77e.svg -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Zonal mean winds back to normal, a small part of the ENS shows a SSW pdf2svg-worker-commands-788bdf985c-8zvvc-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-G8j77e.svg -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
sebastiaan1973 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion