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sebastiaan1973

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Everything posted by sebastiaan1973

  1. AO- In Dutch we say 'voorgeschiedenis'. The setting before we get an easterly is indeed not good for cold later on.
  2. I think it is time to watch the stratosphere closely. GFS0h delivers a split, combine this with a blocking in NW-Europe and you get downwelling till the end of march, start of april. https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/1/373/2020/
  3. For the week of 19th February, an increased warming compared with earlier this week.
  4. The output for week 19th of february. Today there is no cold anomaly for NW- & Central Europe.
  5. LRD indeed, a couple of runs with cold anomaly for NW-Europe.
  6. We must be incredible unlucky if we don't get a couple of cold days in the coming weeks
  7. Truly remarkable. The positive NAO regiem is falling back to a staggering low number at 20th of february in the ENS.
  8. EC46 cold. Massive upgrade from a couple of days ago. A dip to 15 m/s. The border of a weak stratospheric polar vortex is 20 m/s.
  9. Four models at 144h. I find it hard to tell which one is the best.
  10. @BarnetBlizzard It has some credit, as EFC46 is hinting in this direction for some time.
  11. UKMO, GFS & ECMWF at 168h (162H, GFS) GFS differs from the other two, especially around Iceland.
  12. Well, the plume doesn't seem to indicate a cold period is coming soon.
  13. @Daniel* i agree with you. Together with GFS oper some days later, they seem to me excellent charts (besides far away)
  14. I think this is a very good setting. Anticyclone at Scandinavia. This has potential.
  15. The chance for a positive NAO regime seems rather small. pdf2svg-worker-commands-788bdf985c-8zvvc-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-G8j77e.svg
  16. Zonal mean winds back to normal, a small part of the ENS shows a SSW pdf2svg-worker-commands-788bdf985c-8zvvc-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-G8j77e.svg
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