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FetchCB

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  1. FetchCB
    They don't learn they are not machine learning models they are deterministic in that they apply the laws of physics to a "known" starting point. The reason why the models do get it wrong is amongst other reasons, due the fact that the "known" isn't exact and for that reason ensembles are run with different starting points to give a sense as to whether the forecast is likely to materialise. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5011169
  2. FetchCB
    They don't learn they are not machine learning models they are deterministic in that they apply the laws of physics to a "known" starting point. The reason why the models do get it wrong is amongst other reasons, due the fact that the "known" isn't exact and for that reason ensembles are run with different starting points to give a sense as to whether the forecast is likely to materialise.
  3. FetchCB
    This one? Not sure it was a polar low though
  4. FetchCB
    As you had already analysed
  5. FetchCB
    Looks like a Wash Streamer?
  6. FetchCB
    You posted a chart for this Thursday but most of the cold charts have posted are for the week after. The one thing that your chart shows taken in isolation is a negatively tilted high migrating to Greenland. This is a good thing for cold?
  7. FetchCB
    The severe weather warnings are not about whether the weather will occur but about the impacts that the severe weather may have. In the video in the link from Mets that I posted earlier, the Deputy Chief Forecaster who was presenting went out of her way to explain that.
  8. FetchCB
    The Met office 2D matrix is a common tool used across industries worldwide to manage risk and the "calculations" that go into deciding probability and impact will have been carefully constructed. https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/risk-analysis-project-management-7070 This history shows how they arrived at the current system https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-weather-warnings/met-office-weather-warnings#:~:text=The National Severe Weather Warning,%2C or levels%2C were reached. The impacts vary by weather type https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/guides/severe-weather-advice . This video from Rmets shows how the decisions are made in issuing a weather warning https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=7lrvJHJrEfc I think the issue is more the interpretation of the warning that is at fault and especially the media. In the past few days we have seen headlines stating "Danger to Life" warnings issued to Southern England when in fact the Amber warning is a "potential danger to life". I'm my job as a Project Manager I use these Matrices all the time to communicate risks to the project. It is down to me to communicate how that matrix should be understood and this context the Met Office do do this. If you visit their site it is full of information on how to interpret weather warnings. the problem is that people don't bother I have always viewed weather warnings along the following Yellow = be advised Amber = Be prepared, red take action. The Met office do state that you should read the warning in conjunction with the colour to understand the risks but as it is said you can lead a horse to water .........
  9. FetchCB
    A car has been reported to have been washed into the sea at Sidmouth Live: Storm Ciaran chaos in Sidmouth as vehicle swept into sea - Devon Live WWW.GOOGLE.COM The Met Office issued multiple weather warnings for rain and wind as Storm Ciaran arrives today (November 1). Multiple emergency service crews are down along the...
  10. FetchCB
    Scenes from the Dawlish webcam show conditions deteriorating. 60 mins ago the spray from the waves were just about reaching the railway track but now the wwbcam which is quite a way up is getting covered in spray
  11. FetchCB
    Not only that the leaves that are on the trees that will get blown off will block culverts/drains and will flood
  12. FetchCB
    From midday to 4pm Brittany Weather bouy has seen an 18mb drop in pressure https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/observations/162163
  13. FetchCB
    Trying to find out more about how they are forecasted and came across this Cyclogenisis Training It seems that sting jets are more common in Shapiro-Keyser type cyclones https://resources.eumetrain.org/satmanu/shapiro_keyser_cm/index.html as opposed to the Norwegian type. They form late on so we may not see its formation until later on today /overnight
  14. FetchCB
    Aside from the screaming winds and hearing the windows creak my memory of 1987 was the silence in the morning...nothing no traffic noise no birds silence
  15. FetchCB
    What I've not heard any mention of with this storm are the words "Sting Jet". The forecast track is similar to 87 but what devastated Southern England was the sting jet.
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