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FetchCB

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  1. FetchCB
    They don't learn they are not machine learning models they are deterministic in that they apply the laws of physics to a "known" starting point. The reason why the models do get it wrong is amongst other reasons, due the fact that the "known" isn't exact and for that reason ensembles are run with different starting points to give a sense as to whether the forecast is likely to materialise. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5011169
  2. FetchCB
    They don't learn they are not machine learning models they are deterministic in that they apply the laws of physics to a "known" starting point. The reason why the models do get it wrong is amongst other reasons, due the fact that the "known" isn't exact and for that reason ensembles are run with different starting points to give a sense as to whether the forecast is likely to materialise.
  3. FetchCB
    This one? Not sure it was a polar low though
  4. FetchCB
    As you had already analysed
  5. FetchCB
    Looks like a Wash Streamer?
  6. FetchCB
    You posted a chart for this Thursday but most of the cold charts have posted are for the week after. The one thing that your chart shows taken in isolation is a negatively tilted high migrating to Greenland. This is a good thing for cold?
  7. FetchCB
    The severe weather warnings are not about whether the weather will occur but about the impacts that the severe weather may have. In the video in the link from Mets that I posted earlier, the Deputy Chief Forecaster who was presenting went out of her way to explain that.
  8. FetchCB
    The Met office 2D matrix is a common tool used across industries worldwide to manage risk and the "calculations" that go into deciding probability and impact will have been carefully constructed. https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/risk-analysis-project-management-7070 This history shows how they arrived at the current system https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-weather-warnings/met-office-weather-warnings#:~:text=The National Severe Weather Warning,%2C or levels%2C were reached. The impacts vary by weather type https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/guides/severe-weather-advice . This video from Rmets shows how the decisions are made in issuing a weather warning https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=7lrvJHJrEfc I think the issue is more the interpretation of the warning that is at fault and especially the media. In the past few days we have seen headlines stating "Danger to Life" warnings issued to Southern England when in fact the Amber warning is a "potential danger to life". I'm my job as a Project Manager I use these Matrices all the time to communicate risks to the project. It is down to me to communicate how that matrix should be understood and this context the Met Office do do this. If you visit their site it is full of information on how to interpret weather warnings. the problem is that people don't bother I have always viewed weather warnings along the following Yellow = be advised Amber = Be prepared, red take action. The Met office do state that you should read the warning in conjunction with the colour to understand the risks but as it is said you can lead a horse to water .........
  9. FetchCB
    A car has been reported to have been washed into the sea at Sidmouth Live: Storm Ciaran chaos in Sidmouth as vehicle swept into sea - Devon Live WWW.GOOGLE.COM The Met Office issued multiple weather warnings for rain and wind as Storm Ciaran arrives today (November 1). Multiple emergency service crews are down along the...
  10. FetchCB
    Scenes from the Dawlish webcam show conditions deteriorating. 60 mins ago the spray from the waves were just about reaching the railway track but now the wwbcam which is quite a way up is getting covered in spray
  11. FetchCB
    Not only that the leaves that are on the trees that will get blown off will block culverts/drains and will flood
  12. FetchCB
    From midday to 4pm Brittany Weather bouy has seen an 18mb drop in pressure https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/observations/162163
  13. FetchCB
    Trying to find out more about how they are forecasted and came across this Cyclogenisis Training It seems that sting jets are more common in Shapiro-Keyser type cyclones https://resources.eumetrain.org/satmanu/shapiro_keyser_cm/index.html as opposed to the Norwegian type. They form late on so we may not see its formation until later on today /overnight
  14. FetchCB
    Aside from the screaming winds and hearing the windows creak my memory of 1987 was the silence in the morning...nothing no traffic noise no birds silence
  15. FetchCB
    What I've not heard any mention of with this storm are the words "Sting Jet". The forecast track is similar to 87 but what devastated Southern England was the sting jet.
  16. FetchCB
    I'm not sure you can infer anything from that although traditionally I believe lower intense depressions do track more southerly Met office in one of their videos said last night that the low pressure will be carried along by the jet stream and the rapid intensification happens when it exits the jet stream just South West of Ireland. I'm guessing the decoupling of the low pressure system from the Jet stream will both affect it's intensification and it's final track
  17. FetchCB
    Worth highlighting the comment in regards to track...could be 100km further north or 100km further south, perhaps highlighting a lack of consensus on the ensembles as to the track this far out
  18. FetchCB
    Sure it's been posted before but for info What are the National Severe Weather Warning Service Impact tables? WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Make sure you know what to do when severe weather is forecast
  19. FetchCB
    It depends on what the impacts are. If you gave out a ref or Amber warning to a low probability storm and it did turn out to not happen people will start to ignore it. Do not forget also that these warnings are not just for information, they also create a chain of actions within the civil contingency space. Amber and red warnings normally entail an emergency response command centre to be inacted(with it's associated costs). In some cases leave cancelled, shifts rearranged etc. The yellow warning currently in place is to raise awareness. If the storm shifts further north or its characteristics change so that the impacts become either more certain then I'm sure an Amber warning will be issued. As that confidence increases and the effects more significant then a red will be issued. Also worth bearing in mind that geographically the same wind speed for example will potentially invoke a different warning. An 80 mph hitting London will have far greater impact than say Fort William (as an example)
  20. FetchCB
    Low risk at this timescale I would have thought. If the track remains the same I would imagine the impacts are significant enough that any increase in the risk will warrant an Amber warning.
  21. FetchCB
    Maybe the word historic will have more meaning
  22. FetchCB
    In the states prior to an evacuation order being issued the authorities will issue a notice to say be prepared to leave, I think given the not just he rare red warning but the language being used ,unprecedented rainfall etc, then communication could have been sent telling people to be prepared to be evacuated. I will hold my hands up and say I don't live in the area so have no knowledge of whether this was done but neither have i seen any evidence to say that it has.
  23. FetchCB
    The issue I don't understand is that the Met Office issued a red warning on Wednesday Lunchtime ,so will have been briefing civil contingency ahead of that , and yet it took the local council 24 hours to order evacuations. Surely in that lost 24 hours more time could have been spent not only convincing people to evacuate but also giving them time to move valuable items upstairs.
  24. FetchCB
    That looks like a very real scenario unfortunately
  25. FetchCB
    That is an awful amount of moisture being pumped from off the coast of Africa pm
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