meerkat63

The situation does not look good for Cumbria over the weekend unfortunately. METO still going with 150mm+ totals over the highest fells - which will of course run off into the rivers. That is an exceptional amount of rain in probably less than 24 hours - exceptional for the UK at least. Serious flooding very possible I would say - and no doubt the Met Office will be issuing flash warnings nearer the time.

Due to milder weather in the offing as I mentioned earlier. Nothing to do with the new thread. Model output discussion is always at it's busiest during or just preceding the onset of cold/snow. Totally agree. I think that the existing thread has actually been enhanced by the pasting over of some more in-depth posts perhaps originally intended for the new thread.

A very good idea indeed. As someone who refrains from posting on the model thread - but does read through it every day (in winter at least) the new thread should hopefully save a lot of time and be informative in the process. As regards the various concerns which some have over the new thread - firstly I am fairly confident that model output discussion will not be diluted. I hope that people are not too hasty in forming an opinion on this one - because at present it is becoming a little quieter in there - but this is purely due to the fact that the weather is turning milder in the short-term. Nothing else. I also think that the number of posters invited is about right and the contributors involved are those whose posts I make an effort to seek out in the model thread - precisely because they give the best, most reasoned and realistic view of what is likely to develop. One other point. I do find it strange that some are complaining that the so-called cream of the crop now have a locked model analyst's thread. As if it is a case of 'them and us'. Well I have to say that I totally disagree with that viewpoint. Apart from being fairly infantile and short-sighted (in my opinion) I also find such a stance to some degree quite arrogant. I know for instance that I do not have the technical expertise, depth of knowledge and level of understanding attributed to our more experienced posters and in that sense rather than develop an inferiority complex and throw toys out of prams - I try to learn from reading posts by those who really do know what they are talking about. If the new thread makes that somewhat easier - and I believe it will - all the better. Well done Netweather and thanks again for a fantastic idea!

0.9c for me. Hope it's lower. Much lower!

Hard to believe, I know. Apparently snow fell in East Anglia and London too - probably not settling. Sleet in Portsmouth. The cricket match between Essex and Kent at Colchester was also delayed - temps of 2.0c at midday there on that particular day!

I'm not Mr Data obviously, but I do know that it snowed in Buxton June 1975. A cricket match between Lancashire and Derbyshire being played at the Buxton ground was abandoned for the day on 2nd of June that year I believe due to an inch of snow on the pitch caused by an arctic front moving south. A heatwave followed a few days later! I mentioned that an inch fell on that date - well it was actually several inches of snow. A rapid thaw did occur (as you might expect at that time of year) and it was an inch which lay on the cricket pitch when play was due to start. I'm sure this isn't the latest snowfall but as you suggest Mr Data will probably have the answer hopefully!

December CET could all hinge upon the tilt of the front moving in on Boxing Day. Favourable, inland areas get some snow, it remains fairly cold or cool and we get a shot at the CET record. Unfavourable - slush and no record. I remain hopeful but at the moment think we might just miss it. Still time for change though.

Nothing here that I have seen so far. Could do with a change in the wind direction but I am glad it's cold at least.

Current temp. 2.4c Dewpoint 1.0c Humidity 89% 1011.1mb Cloudy with a slight breeze.

Cloudy and dry here today. Strong winds early morning, easing considerably during the day.

Current temp. 3.1c Dewpoint 1.0c Humidity 83% 1008.7mb Dry, cloudy day. Strong wind early, much less so now.

Current temp. 5.9c Dewpoint 3.0c Humidity 83% 1016.1mb Cloudy with only a slight breeze. Cooler than yesterday.

Current temp. 6.6c Dewpoint 6.0c Humidity 96% 1018.7mb Low cloud and drizzle. Little or no wind.

6.6c here. A fairly dark, miserable afternoon now with low cloud descending to the foot of the hills. Patches of snow still around although it has mostly disappeared. Torrential rain and severe gales would be better than this!

Current temp. -0.3c Dewpoint -2.0c Humidity 86% 995.8mb Light snow. Little or no wind.

Current temp. 0.2c Dewpoint -2.0c Humidity 84% 997.8mb Mean wind speed 11mph Strongest gust 26mph Wind direction SE Cloudy.

A very interesting aside to the here and now is how well the various models have coped with northern blocking so far this winter. I made reference to this briefly in questioning yesterdays output (and several other far more experienced posters than I guarded against taking the models then at face value). By and large I would say that ECM has dealt with blocking consistently better than its counterparts - and of course there has been the odd blip - however it does remain the model of choice imo. To that end, tonights output (by the aforementioned ECM) has to be a step in the right direction - for cold lovers anyway!

Current temp. 0.8c Dewpoint -1.0c Humidity 88% 1014.7mb Mean wind speed 4mph NE Cloudy - has been so all day.

Current temp. 0.8c (still above freezing ) Dewpoint -1.0c Humidity 92% Mean wind speed 4mph Strongest gust 27mph Wind direction NE 1020.9mb Light snow. Edit. now moderate snow

Temperature is the real issue here. Still above freezing (0.8c for past 3 hours) it would make all the difference in the world if the temp. was at or below zero - particularly when ppn is light. With the breeze too, then the snow would drift.

I have my doubts about that (and for my own area) too. The radar shows the bulk of - and heaviest - ppn drifting just to the north of here.

Agreed. I am not yet convinced that the models are dealing with the blocking high correctly - hence the tendency towards being potentially over-progressive with regard to bringing in the Atlantic. A couple of more runs needed perhaps.

Current temp. 0.9c Dewpont -1.0c Humidity 87% 1017.1mb Mean wind speed 7mph Strongest gust 27mph Wind direction NE Light snow showers

Current temp. -1.7c Dewpoint -5.0c Humidity 79% 1023.3mb Cloudy. Little or no wind although breezy during the day.

Current temp. -2.0c Dewpoint -4.0c Humidity 82% Mean wind speed 8mph Strongest gust 21mph Wind direction NE 1024.6mb Sunny following early snow showers.