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    Aberaman, Nr Aberdare, S.Wales. Altitude 142m asl

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  1. It still could be with the first significant winter snow event for S Wales and the E MidlandsJames
  2. Im now based in aberaman, just outside Aberdare and I'm expecting some snow here in the early hours. There's been snow on the mountains around here for the last couple of days and a hideous wind chill. I would expect 5 miles up the road in Hirwaun and the Heads of the Valleys will see a good couple of inches if not more. The last couple of years has seen incredible snowfalls in the higher valley regions of S Wales and I'm hoping that late Jan and Feb will deliver the goods again with the odd nice suprise thrown in, like tonights feature! James
  3. The 12z GME is looking rather good too http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgme1081.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgme1321.gif All a step in the right direction
  4. Thanks for sharing your 'secret'. I love weather lore, think it is fascinating. Having lived in the country all 36 years of my life and coming from a family of farmers, I have heard pretty much all of them except that one!! Back to the 12z and as was said earlier, tiny changes can produce huge differences in the end result. The models aren't really showing an awful lot different synoptically than they have over the last 48 hours, however a shift in just 300 miles west can make a huge impact on UK weather, especially when the continent is so cold right now. Also we have to factor in the rare beast that is the SH. Modelling such a rare event will have its problems especially when snow cover over almost the whole of Northern Europe is factored in. Just as the MetO thought it was plain sailing they have another potentially interesting 7-10 days ahead of them and as a result the CF forecast will be 'interesting' if things continue along the 12z lines. James
  5. So nice to see a bit of sunshine here in Maidstone this afternoon. The drive in was very picturesque with thick snow covering the woodland on the drive over the N Downs at lunchtime with temps still below freezing up there. Interesting that sat has thrown up a slim chance of snow. As you say, depends on this SW and its track. I'll be watching this closely as well as developments throughout next week when some sort of reload looks almost inevitable. James
  6. This is what I love about winter weather in the UK. No matter how many model runs, interpretations and analysis takes place, mother nature does its own thing. I see the warnings have now been extended along the south and much of central London is having its heaviest snow of this spell so far. Hmmmm now who was it that suggested this yesterday morning LOL!!! No science in my predictions, just pure luck!!!! James
  7. From our freinds in France. All the ingredients are there for snow away from the immediate coastal strip and even here as the precip is progged to arrive around midnight/early hours, I wouldn't be suprised to see any rain or sleet turn to snow for a time as evapourative cooling takes effect. 5-10 miles in land it will ALL be snow. Paradoxically for Central London I would expect this event will probably one of the best in our cold spell as the system arrives at the perfect time. Whatever happens tomorrow will be raw. A biting ESE wind and light/moderate snow at times before it fizzles out. James
  8. I mentioned yesterday that advisories would be issued for our area yesterday and come this afternoon I would expect them to be issued. Nothing heavy but certainly enough to cause a little concern for the rush hour. Usual suspects will get a covering ie High Weald, N Downs and I would expect up to a couple of inches to freshen things up a bit. I would say that the SE is well placed for snow drawing on surface cold from a frozen continent and lower dew points. Area to the N of the estuary may well not fair quite so well. Interesting nonetheless and something to keep a little interest for the next 24-36 hours before the inevitable thaw. James
  9. That is the only problem I potentially see; whether in fact it dies before getting here. I dont think rain will be an issue for this part of the world. The S Coast would however see rain/sleet I fear, from the SE wind off the sea modifying the dew points somewhat. Elevation will also excentuate precipitation especially slopes facing the SE winds (so whole of N Downs) Like I said it's one to watch. I'm not getting excited about it but one last 'sprinkle' would be nice. For the SE I think the next 5-7 days are going to be cold and dismal with temps over the snow fields no higher than 1-3c and endless days and nights of gloom. Beyond that I think anything is possible but fear the SH will be too far east to have any major effect on our weather as far as cold and snow goes. I think the rest of Jan will be fairly average after this following week and our best chances of a renewed cold outbreak will be in Feb/March as has often been the case over the last 5 years. There is however, a small chance that things could change at fairly short notice with renewed WAA to our west and rising heights to our NE. I think its a given that the SH will be lurking for the next 2 weeks at least and all the time it is there it wouldn't take a lot in upstream patterns to bring CAA south and east across the UK. I think a few days away from the models would be a good idea for everyone (after tues/weds). Come back after next weekend and I think that a definitive pattern will be becoming apparant. James
  10. Overnight snow sticking around today as air is drier, lighter winds and dew points a little lower. Not going to be a lot of melting in N and Mid Kent this afternoon before temps drop back again. I for one am interested in Tues/Wednesdays weather. Doesn't seem to be a lot being made of this but with low surface temps, 850's below freezing and low dew points coming from an icy continent, I think the SE looks to be well placed for snow should precipitation make its way here. Looking at the models it looks like it will make it here and our proximity to the near continent will really help us out away from the immediate S Coast. One to keep an eye out for. Watch the advisories spread further east over the next 24 hours. James
  11. Still snowing moderately in Iwade. Road, trees and cars covered again in a very gently E wind. Nice suprise. My wife and I went up the road to the N Downs above Detling for a walk and the trees were covered in rime from the low cloud. Some of the drifts at the top of the scarp slope were incredible, at least 6-8' deep with snow boarders jumping off them. No thaw at all at the top. We then drove along the A20 to Harrietsham which must have been in the sweet spot yesterday. An incredible amount of snow (I'd say a good 3-4" more than at the top of Detling Hill!) Looked like close on a foot of snow weighing down trees and shrubs along the road and that was during the slow thaw! No wonder the A20 between Lenham and Charing was blocked, there was drifting snow 2 days ago and that was before yesterdays deluge and strong NE winds. Temp 0.5c James
  12. Snowing nicely here in Iwade, nr Sittingbourne. Settling on cars and road. The air now seems a little drier than earlier? Would this mean that dew points have fallen? Temp here 0.8c James
  13. Temp sat at around 0.8c for much of the night then went up to 1.2c and as a result snow is thawing fast with DP nudging above freezing. Still managing to snow though albeit lightly in big waves of small flakes. The N Downs should hold their cover well with temps at or just slightly below freezing, higher DP will make for rather heavy wet snow rather than the powder fest of the last few days. I am cetainly not down beat. Over the last few years we have had to wait until Feb to collect our snow, so falling and deep lying snow in Dec and Jan has been a cracking start. Yes I love the cold as the rest of you do however dull, damp, cold doesn't fill me with huge excitement especially as that pretty much what we are going to have all week. Current conditions:- Temp 0.9c 100% cloud cover Strong ENE wind Light snow James
  14. Excellent post from Steve M. And yes, the jackpot zone is exactly where you mention after driving around N Kent over the last day or so. Somewhere between Charing/Challock and Detling has some incredible depths, however its now all filling the country lanes as there is precious little on the fields!!!! I have hit it lucky here this time nr Sittingbourse (and pretty much at sea level), which makes up for the failed event from Feb last year when the wind was too 'easterly' and you guys in SE London and Surrey got pasted. This event has been a far cry from the marginal rubbish here last Feb. We have had a week of snow (falling and on the ground) which has (albeit for a few hours) been powdery. Pretty much rivals the 2005 event of Feb and Early March for falling snow but 2010 has delivered far more snowfall and less melt between falls. Even if it were all to end tonight, I would have had my fill of snow for winter 2009/2010 and some. James
  15. Now entering around our 9th hour of continuous snowfall here in Iwade, nr Sittingbourne. Looks like of a seen from 'The Day After Tomorrow' Dont know how much we have had but it keeps on falling and blowing a lot off roofs and the road. Cant see the curbs and the snow has drifted around 12" up my patio door. Temp at 0.1c James
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