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soupsurfer7

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Everything posted by soupsurfer7

  1. Yes BBC use Meteogroup which use ECM. Although they kept the met office weather warnings which can give some interesting situations sometimes where ECM and UKMO diverge . Sometimes you will see a heavy rain/snow warning on the map without any precipitation if the models are different
  2. Surely it should be just a cloudy symbol unless the chance of precipitation is above at least 40%?
  3. Light flakes falling here again this morning. Shame it’s all gone Pete tong for the weekend and Thursday/Friday but at least we’ve seen some snow this winter in many places and a lot of us had lying snow from that event in January
  4. The pressure looks too high unfortunately so it looks to be fizzling out before it gets here
  5. There is some truth in that (sort of). There’s an 18th century Welsh proverb ‘Eira mân, eira mawr‘ which loosely translates as ‘little snow, big snow’.... When you have big snowflakes it means conditions are much more marginal and it’s much more likely to turn to rain or melt as there’s probably milder air trying to mix in...Smaller flakes usually means that the cold air is much more entrenched and the snow would last for longer like with the beast from the east in 2018 when we had fine powdery snow but it accumulated significantly
  6. Worried now the cold air will be too strong and the front won’t even make it past Ireland
  7. God knows what they’re gonna say on the country file week ahead forecast about Thursday and Friday . They’ll probably speed up the graphics and quickly gloss over it
  8. Very interesting that GFS is showing the front stalling on Thursday... it's usually seen as one of the more progressive models. We could be in this for the long haul!
  9. Hopefully with the cold air in place for longer it will help to produce more snow when the Atlantic does eventually start it’s battle to break through. The Atlantic always wins in the end but cold air is stubborn to shift so hopefully a big dumping before the rain and milder air comes in
  10. Wintry showers starting tomorrow night for eastern areas like Powys and Monmouthshire
  11. Yes trouble is it feels like we’re dependent on something coming up from the south or west which brings the high risk of milder air unless the low is able to ‘slide’
  12. Was this from an easterly and was it widespread across Wales? It seems that usually easterlies just give us dry weather and maybe occasional flurries. Is it possible for the precipitation coming from the east to be so heavy that it actually gives us a good dumping?
  13. I know what you mean, the ground is soaked around here. You can’t go for a walk without ending up covered in mud.
  14. In years gone by I always found that snow was more likely to occur on a Thursday haha that’s changed now
  15. They use Meteogroup which is predominantly ECM. Best to use both in my opinion so you can see where there is any cross model agreement.
  16. Just caught the BBC forecast on my lunch break and they’ve surprisingly bullish about snow showers coming in from the east early next week
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