Matty M

Assessing the IR satellite of STORM EUNICE at 21z and comparing to the simulated ECMWF 12z IR Forecast for 21z it seems meteorologically sound to conclude the system is somewhat more developed at this time than progged by the ECMWF 12z output with a more structured and defined centre. Best of luck to all in the coming days and take care.

The ARPEGE snow issue is all because of graupel! The model has a hail/rain/snow/graupel elements. Alot of graupel is actually snow, wet sow.. so if there is 60% graupel and 40% snow in the mix, it will not hash over the precipitation chart with snow lines!

We await the EC 12z .. a little bit saner than 18 hours previous

There is a big chance there could be a 2018 snow storm next week. Synopitc are delicious...just not quite the dreamy experience we had last year... Never forget!!

I feel sad for the UK. To be in this moment. Such inequality, such disparate groups of good meaning people. Get a grip. God speed.

It is funny-- and i think...I hope I do allude to this now. This is nationally, internationally as close as we get. Perhaps this is why we love it? At this moment of 96hr+ charts....we are all dreaming of delivering a great personal experience.... But...we will soon separate.... we will soon no longer frequent this forum.... Madness will ensue,,,,, anger....ecstasy .. usually....the majority on here experience...S and SE England Last year.... the bullseye hit Dublin, Ireland. I was there and it was a real immense moment in history...not to exaggerate... but it was... We are all on here for a reason... but we all deep down relish a storm or a snow storm because it brings out real life humanity......we crave that moment where we can do something....where nature rules...no doubt...

I would be fairly confident it will sit in the mild 20 percent of members in the ENS update. Nothing lost tonight, just more food for though and to ensure we don't get complacent.

Here is a picture of 'Hill Snow'

Yes, low coming out of Newfoundland is just too super charged on this run, we need to see it moderated in future runs. Nothing solved tonight..

Very similar to UKM144hr so will tell us what is the likelist scenario

EC T144 not ideal but I will reserve judgement until T168

Excellent 12z GFS it must be said. Something similar from the ECMWF and we are in good standing.

ICON is an improvement from the 00z so a good trend. Remaining positive as we head towards the next few model updates.

We that frigid air going to exit the US it does mean there would be a sharp baroclinic zone near Newfoundland and likely to spawn some serious low pressure systems which could topple the block after T192hrs Otherwise a stellar 6z run.

Final chart from ICON 18z a bit of a tease