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gareth moo

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    Machen, Caerphilly, 80m asl.

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  1. The front reaches Pembrokeshire within the next hour or so. It will be interesting to see how it presents and develops down West. Anyone have live dewpoints for Pembroke / Milford area?
  2. Front certainly further North than all of the high res models predicted for this time. Although the cold dense air may destroy it, worth a radar watch for sure!
  3. I agree with what has been said already today by Keith and others in that the middle ground solution between the current forecast models could drop some serious snow on us here in Wales. If the cold air can squash that current tropical depression and send it along the English Channel (maybe next Wednesday-ish) keeping us North of centre and stalling, we're in for some serious action. Loads of variables still need to fall in place, but the potential makes sure that we'll all be invested on here !!
  4. If ECM is correct at +120hrs - it won't be snow after Saturday lunchtime. However, time for changes. Fine margins again.
  5. The plucky front is giving it his all to give us some snow - c'mon buddy 150 more miles into that Beasterly!
  6. Fax chart for Thursday - Disturbed enough to create the occlusion ejected and detached from the main Low. Looks to have our name on it - just hope it makes it the final 300 miles from here! Backed by GFS, ICON, ECM for Thursday overnight and well into Friday. Fingers crossed.
  7. Shortwaves being ejected from main low Keith? Seems to be far more disruption to those Atlantic systems showing this morning.
  8. GFS 6z has just thrown a 24 hour staller over Wales for Thursday. Marginal upper air temps but could deliver!
  9. Yep - that's the stalemate with heights from the South getting dragged up by that resilient LP.
  10. At moment the models are showing two heavyweights ready to go at it. On the one side is the deep Atlantic low versus the Beast on the other. It's like Rocky 4 - Eastern seaboard New Yorker against the mighty Siberian. At the moment they are locked in a slugfest first round and neither gives an inch. The battleground remains in the North Atlantic. If either side weakens - we in Wales will probably win: If the Beast weakens, the low can gain some mileage Eastwards. We would hope that the Beast puts up a decent fight though and stalls the low right here If the low weakens, it will disrupt and get squeezed Southeastwards. That's our slider. Scenario 1 looks unlikely, so it's 2 we're probably looking for. Problem is that the longer the fight goes on, the more likely the stalemate, as the low gets all his mates from the South to keep the opponents apart and the fight gets stopped with a points draw. I still reckon there's a chance of scenario 2 but we will probably need to see it within the next 48 hours on ECM at the very least. (Can't believe i want Rocky to concede mind!)
  11. Hello?! - Weak occlusion dropping South Saturday night / Sunday early hours. Snow-maker all the way if it can stay in any shape. Arome (very highly rated) has it as all snow from Cardiff Eastwards. Maybe 3-4 hours of snow in this feature. Further East the better though. Next frame would be be interesting?
  12. Yep. LP will adjust, usually by 100s of miles. Won't go North. Can't see it pushing through against the serious cold. Since the internet age and being able to properly track this stuff every 6 hours (rather than on the Countryfile forecast each Sunday) we've seen prob 90% of these slide (eventually.)
  13. 1982 - wow, great memories. I was 10. Three things anyone below maybe 35/40 won't understand: 1. Proper power cuts. Like no heating or lights for 72 hours. Candles and a Calor gas heater to huddle around. 2. Snow so deep that we made a full-on bobsleigh track in a field. Banked corners the lot. 3. No school for 4 weeks because of frozen pipes in the outside toilets.
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