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Everything posted by Craig84
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Craig84 replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Heights lowering around Greenland. Jet moving north, high pressure slowly moving north east. Do we finally have lift off? -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
Craig84 replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Craig84 replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Morning all. Whilst I’m not too worried about the detail at this range, I’m pleased to see the ECM’s idea of low pressure winding up in Greenland area and the jet moving north in response -
Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas
Craig84 replied to Met4Cast's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 234, a huge block is being created here east to west. Is this the sort of setup that will drag in the really cold air from Russia -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
Craig84 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 06z makes much less of the Atlantic push. The trough disrupts and drops further south drawing more heat up. by next Thursday, this is the result.... 36c in the London area, raw temps -
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer
Craig84 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ok, now we’re getting somewhere. I’ll bank this 144 ukmo. Trough pulling back west, jet aligning SW-NE and pressure rising from the south -
Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!
Craig84 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM sniffing around a plume at 240hrs too. Pressure falling around Greenland and the trough pulling back west into the Atlantic. Letd hope this trend is built upon in the coming days. -
Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!
Craig84 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Looking for signs of our next bout of settled weather, I’m encouraged by the 0z ECM. Comparing the 168hrs chart below you can see northern blocking suppressing the jet and associated trough into our area. The next chart is the 240hrs. You can see by then the northern blocking has evaporated and been replaced by low pressure in the southern Greenland area. The trough has pulled back, getting the jet on a favourable SW-NE axis and allowing the Azores high to ridge in. Backed up by the 240 mean
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Model output discussion - summer rolls on
Craig84 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GFS 06z is continuing the trend of toning down the depth of the trough next week. The core of the low not making landfall in Scotland before moving away. By 168hrs the Azores high is nosing in again, I think the breakdown has been toned down in the last 24hrs. -
Model output discussion - summer rolls on
Craig84 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What I find fascinating is that normally, following any modelled plume, the jet quickly ramps up and blasts it all away. The 216 and 240 charts while being a bit of a mess, shows this just isn’t happening. Certainly not normal service this year! -
Model output discussion - summer rolls on
Craig84 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Totally agree re the ECM’s strange goings on. With the frames being 24hrs apart, I’ve always enjoyed trying to work out what the next one will be, to some success. But the last few days, I have no idea what it’s going to do next! The frames just don’t seem to stitch together logically if you know what I mean. -
Model output discussion - summer rolls on
Craig84 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKMO showing a good recovery at 120, 144hrs. Good to see the summer of 2018 also bucking the recent trend of summer troughs getting encased in higher pressure and stuck over the Uk for a week or more. Low lifting out nicely -
Model output discussion - summer rolls on
Craig84 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As Singularity said yesterday, the models are playing around with the positioning of high pressure and therefore where the really hot uppers go will change with it. But when we have charts like this in the mid range, with such a large area of hot uppers so close by, I don’t think anything can be ruled out... -
Model output discussion - summer rolls on
Craig84 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I have to echo this northwestsnow. Tamara, singularity and others have been very impressive in their grasp on the situation this summer. It’s been really enjoyable to follow. What’s also been great is the number of contributors this summer, it’s rivalled winter for the amount of posts and buzz for me. It’s been great to see so many coldies in here this year chasing the heat too! Great stuff -