lawrenk

Had what could be described as “nearly a frost” this morning. This Winter 23/24 just keeps on giving.

Methuselah Me neither, good here innit!

Methuselah Never mind all that cobblers, is it going to snow imby or not?

trickydicky That’s a very good summing up in my opinion. Tolerance is the key. I’m very much in “camp two”, would like to progress to “camp one” but, frankly, it’s a slow process! The third camp is, and always will be, beyond me, as I don’t have the time or inclination to learn to that degree. Truthfully, I skip past the very long and technical posts. That’s not to disrespect those who produce them at all and I admire those who put that amount of effort in. I do think, though, that it’s perfectly legitimate for posters to challenge each other, where an outcome that the “science” suggested fails to materialise, as long as it’s done in a non confrontational way. Finally, the Mods do a great job, given the range of contributors you have highlighted.

Anyone know if that’s it now for the region? Been a bit of snizzle here for the last hour though wind seems to have picked up.

TEITS I always remember something you said a few years ago now to the effect that, for all we had learned, there was still an “unknown” factor that influenced things that we just hadn’t figured out yet. A lot of truth in that I think.

First day of a weeks break from a snowy south Peak District (900 ft asl between Leek and Buxton)

Just ventured out to the top of our road (start of the Roaches ridge).

Properly covering here now (Wincle/Roaches area). Amazing what a minimal drop in temperature does.

Polar Low Agree completely. It shouldn’t be beyond most to understand the probability/impact grid. In my view if there’s a low risk of a high impact event the MO have a duty to warn about it. The problem seems to be the understanding that “low risk” means, on balance, it probably won’t happen.

Hope it’s ok being an “imposter” from the snow starved south east on this forum! Arrived for a weeks break yesterday to a cottage just outside Wincle, near The Roaches. around 250-300m asl I think. Moderate snow currently which is settling well on the grass. We’re right on the edge of the Amber so hoping for the heavier stuff later.

Rather hopeful of seeing a good amount of snow tomorrow, as we’re heading off later to the Peak District for a week. The cottage we’re renting is between Leek and Buxton and about 900ft above sea level, so could be the “sweet spot”.

Methuselah In fairness, it’s been a cracking “day 10” winter. It’s just the countdown from there that’s been the problem.

I agree. There must be a pretty strong signal for them to remain that consistent this far out. For all they’re maligned, these long rangers haven’t been that far off the mark this winter, or previous ones for that matter.

Whilst this cold spell hasn’t delivered in terms of snow, it certainly has in terms of prolonged low temperatures, for here at least. I could be wrong but I don’t think we’ve got above 5 degrees during the day for the best part of two weeks and we’ve had some of the coldest nights for many a year. Let’s not forget as well we only narrowly missed out on what could have been a significant snow event earlier this week, with the low that stayed south. Had that happened I suspect we’d have remembered this spell for a fair time.

Does that mean Rwanda will then get our snow?

Subtle change on the long range MO forecast, now talking about the possibility of “winds from the east” rather than the “north or east”. Perhaps indicating a Scandi High is more likely than a Greenland one? Mark your card for around the 8th Feb onwards, as I’m away for a week in the Peak District, so you can guarantee snow showers piling in to the SE whilst it’s dry as a bone up there!

Brilliant, thanks Tom. Love that pause just after two minutes. Nothing marginal then for us SE ers!

Good luck Tom with everything. Without going into great detail, I had a similar scenario in Feb 91, when the snow prevented me visiting my Father in hospital at Haywards Heath. For those who remember, it was the period when we had the infamous Ian McAskill forecast. Does anyone have the YouTube link?

The latest models seem to out my part of East Sussex in the sweet spot for Wednesday with the shift north of the low. Oh for it to stay that way.

Can only be a matter of time before the first “winter’s over” post appears on the main thread. My money’s on the middle of next week.

You’re a lucky man, Nick. Eastbourne will be the bullseye for those channel lows!

Not trending particularly well for us in the S next week, though, hopefully, the low will be much further south than currently shown, which often tends to be the case. I think it was March 2013 when the “sweet spot”, having initially thought to have been the Midlands, turned out to be the Channel Islands!

This debate’s been rumbling on so long I think he’s changed roles again.

Next flurry of a dozen flakes looks like it’s incoming.