Ladyofthestorm

For us in the far North West of Scotland a very interesting and very long winter. Started with Storm Babet in October and carried on relentlessly , very few anticyclonic episodes for us to calm things down . Wet windy and mild autumn . December a brief cold spell early on then mild and unsettled. However January was interesting . 2 significant snow events lasting 5 to 7 days each. February was similar a bit of a non event very cloudy and dull often unsettled. Can I include March? Our sunniest month and driest too . Coolish but pleasant. April I'm writing off. January taster A proper mid Winter.

Hi all I was reading Nick's very interesting article about a final stratospheric warming relatively soon. When I googled on Google Scholar I actually stumbled across the article in Nature. Stratospheric Final Warmings fall into two categories with different evolution over the course of the year WWW.NATURE.COM The transition of the northern stratospheric circulation from winter to summer comes in two flavours, a smooth late one governed by radiation or an... It does make enlightening reading . Early/ Mid March final ( sudden ) earnings are quite rare. I stumbled a good analogue date of a final early-ish warming in late Feb 2008. Spring arrived late that year ( my first year on Skye) , but dry sunny and bitterly cold NLy right through to May. I would not bet against a dry cold/ cool spring in 2024.

Remind me of late winter Early spring 2020. @Weather-history I'm sure lockdown part 1 was a pleasant meteorological affair ?

Ok let's look at the ensembles . The first one for Scotland , west coast weather part of the UK because it's right in the firing line of the gulf stream . Minus 5 uppers and consistently so . That's not mild. Next one to avoid the north of Scotland bias . South Yorkshire again look at those minus 5 uppers . I definitely wouldn't throw in any towels snow is great. Ice is a pain in the neck.

WYorksWeather it's too early to call winter over, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2013, 2018 , and 2021 some pretty significant snow events in March and into April. We often have a back end loaded winter . The PV is there to be stretched and distorted .

Dennis and Kirkcaldy Weather too I agree with you. Writing off more any cold weather is a full hardy narrative. Especially given the teleconnections. Just because an SSW didn't reverse the winds doesn't mean to say it can't stretch or distort the PV. It happened already in January You have to remember easterlies are historically rare for us. WYorksWeather trend is your friend. Down it goes

Badders potentially yes

SSW has not happened yet and it can take 10 to 14 days for its affects to be felt. The medium range models are notorious for being sluggish picking up the impacts of an SSW . @Cambrian has the right ideas using the GEFS longer range . Look at the trend rather than each individual model run. Look at the patterns . Blocking to North and West. Low pressure to the east and south. Winter ain't done with us just yet.

I'm so surprised nobody has posted up Amy Butler's latest tweet about a prospective double SSW event

I have to admit I took a step back from the models on early February. I had a look at the ensembles for my area and it finally looks like the GFS is figuring it out the SSW event ramifications later on.

I'm always suspicious of the GFS spuriously throwing out Atlantic based lows , signally wind rain and mild , when the NAO would suggest otherwise. Neutral possibly slightly negative doesn't tie in with those areas of low pressure. I know some people have knocked it this year, suggesting that it can't be used on its own, but in hindsight it's been a very good predictor / indicator of whether the Atlantic is a big influencer or not of our weather this winter, especially for us in the North. My suggestion is take the models with a huge pinch of salt post 150 hrs , I think the NLy blocking has this.

Take heed. The NAO ensembles suggest a tumble towards neutral then negative into early Feb. The Atlantic storm belt should grind to a halt.

It more for securing livestock fences and feeding extra to the animals. I'm a fair weather camper.

Does anyone have an update on the wind gust map for 12 am to 6 pm Monday morning fur the Western Isles? We looked like we would miss it as we were right in the eye of the storm , but it looks like it will be 40 to 50 miles both of us the centre so will get a pummelling.

I hope Mr Frosty you do know the difference between weather and climate. Lol

Bless you. Yes we always missed the snow events of 2018 . Beasterly beautiful and cold and sunny. I'm sure winter will reload again

Precarious if you ask me. I'm waiting for a NLy reload!

Last night the NOAA ensemble's were bullish about a longer term positive NAO bringing wet Windy, mild and wild weather to the UK. I've noticed that sound if the ensemble runs are gunning to go negative. Watch that for becoming a trend It's not often you see such a strong HP system just collapse the way it is doing. Winters not over.

A good call from Tamara 10 or so days ago. True NLy for us with some of the deepest snow recorded for a very long time. I really don't think this is the end of it this winter. I think an SSW is imminent and the easterlies envitable. Dry cold sunny Spring for NW Highlands I think.

The old adage , the devil is in the detail! But conditions are primed and loaded. I think the M4 corridor is in for a huge shock next week. In the north we are ready!

Fabulous post!

I hope your leg pulling. Lol Potentially we have some pretty good conditions for snow, I would bet on it even in the South. There is absolutely nothing in the teleconnections to suggest anything mild at all . We have an elongated PV and it's suffering big time. I'm suspecting we will see a technical SSW finish the job like 2013 soon.

Completely correct, beautifully predicted from the outset by long range then GFS +260 hrs. 18z GFS looks cold with another potential cold spell end of Jan

Absolutely agree with you 100% with your comment. After early next week's colder plunge we should be looking towards what the SSW that is forecast will do to the PV and the models haven't got a clue. The NAO has been a good indicator too. So watch that as well. To be honest this Jan block has been forecast by the CFS in December . So nothing outrageous or unexpected is going on. The cold needs to get here first, so it's here.

Good as we have another elongation of the PV coming up by another SSW!