Whether Idle

Its 5c here, not a chance. The snow risk is from around 3am to midnight tomorrow with the key time here in Dover being Monday morning. Its a 1-2 cms thing on hills, not very exciting in historical terms,,,, but we live in challenging times,,, where snow is becoming ever more vanishingly rare, so on that basis its now something of note! LOL.

Raining hard here.

The forecasted synpotics have been bellowing for the last day or two that there will be convective activity (albeit nothing dramatic)- 1-2 cms in prone areas such as Kent. So lets see if this ("low grade event" ) in the grand scheme of snow events, pans out as can be expected...

Snow cover disposition by Tuesday morning from the WRF his res: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=70&mode=26&map=5

With the colder air coinciding with an ENE wind our SE Kent chances are reduced whilst all points N and W towards London and down towards IoW are increased.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon-eu.php?ech=81&mode=46&map=510 Icon Hi Res is suggesting some mainly light snow cover Tuesday morning in the SE. Sweet spot appears to be SE part of M25 (chaos alert!) But... The forecast from the 0z GEFS for the upper air temperatures varies from -12 to -4 (8 degrees)! for Monday evening: https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=350&y=157 so the above chart is probably at the more extreme end of the range. Caution required.

My best hope of seeing some snow is a few sleety flakes on Monday in sub-8 uppers for a few hours - Winters ain't what they used to be...

Southwards is the trend as the models catch up. Has the southwards correction reached its maximum extent or will the lows tack into the channel? Fascinating stuff.

This one is trending colder and southward I feel. Going to be an interesting week with lots of nowcasting.

GFS 18z pretty much having none of it. So falling on the 3/4 chance of bugger all for most people. Yes hilltops stand the best chance. Time from 4am to 8am is the key time - but rain for most looking likely.

Yes indeed, those cells looked full of menace, glowering and laden with trouble. The atmosphere had a very disturbed look as I cast my eye southward from Dover Castle this afternoon. The appearance of the atmosphere suggested to me that there is scope for some rapid deepening and heavy precipitation. Some place on the north west side of any closed circulation could get quite a pasting in a short space of time - around rush hour. All quite impossible to be certain of in predictions at this distance of time, but the possibility is there for some mayhem - poss a 1/4 chance, though maybe up to 1/2 over areas with a good altitude to get rapid accumulation of snow.

Evening All. A classic channel low situation, except its even more marginal than in days of yore thanks to higher SSTs and other background factors. Much variance in the modelling of the feature, though in the last 24 hours the trend has been to take the feature further north than had been forecasted yesterday. Clearly areas that benefitted from the pre Christmas fall may again get some wet snow accumulating. Areas with an altitude of greater than 100m will be better off to catch some snow, plus there will be some input from our old friend evaporative cooling in the heavier bursts of precipitation. Im expecting rain on this corner but I guess places on the north Downs and High Weald may well be favoured. Going to be interesting to see if anything transpires across the region.

It is now 60% snow here. So technically still just sleet. Half a mile from coast 5 m asl (+1.6/1.0)

Its transitioning from sleet to snow. 65% 1.6c/0.9

sleet in Dover for last 30 minutes. 5m asl, think its already snowing on the Downs

The latest fax charts are worth a scan through. Frontal systems portrayed as skimming the Kent coast in the next 36 hours. WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Météociel propose le modèle UKMO à maille moyenne (1.25 degrés) jusqu'à 144h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures à tous les niveaux A set for the scrap books there. and Euro 4 is flexing its muscles on the 12z Showing 25cms accumulated snow at Ewell Minnis north west of Dover at 5pm tomorrow WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine EURO4 0.04° du UK MetOffice (météo angaise) sur 5 zones (France, Nord-Ouest, Nord-Est, Sud-Ouest... Sheesh. Seems way out compared to the other models, and Im not sure why? Ewell Minnis automated: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/u10fun2jx#?date=2021-02-06

This is a scan through the 12z models so far available at the time of writing, with approximate snow depth shown for t48 midday Monday in Dover Model Depth in cms (nya not yet available) Arpege 13 GFS. 10 WRF MNM 15 Arome. 14 ICON. 6 Euro 4 nya mean. 11.6 median 13 So I will settle on 12cms on the deck by midday Monday IMBY. We shall see what happens soon

Yes Kent Clipper, I agree.

looking milder than some expected

Apologies. Late. 11.4 70mm

A finishing number in the region 3.9 to 4.3 seems very plausible.

light to moderate snow +0.8/-0.1 Slushy deposits at sea level; 1-2 cms at 125m

rain here at sea level on the coast as expected. 2.7c just too warm, by around 2 degrees!

have hit -2.0 here. Shocking!

Hi 18z GFS better. Its only of bonus value to see some flakes falling. At the moment Id say its 50/50 but Ive a feeling it will be colder than is currently forecast, so chance of at least seeing some flakes fall to get that winter feeling.