Midlands Ice Age

WYorksWeather Thanks for the above. My note was not intended to be a comment about CC. But someone obviously thought it was and so it was transferred in here. So from a CC point of view, as far as I can see, and despite your hotspots in the Atlantic and Pacific, since the graphs for the SH and the NH add up to the earth's total surface surely it means that somewhere must be below average? That is why I was surprised. It seems to not bear out the oft reported facts that large areas of the continents are becoming over heated. You seem to be suggesting that the major part of the warming currently is in the oceans. I was under the impression that GW would not impact the oceans as much as the 'ground' surface, since the oceans have the ability to soak up 9 times more heat capacity, but who knows? MIA

Back from my shopping trip with you know who. Promised a look at the hemispheric temperature profile (and this shocked me!) - (Southern hemisphere data) - No change from 2016 (Northern hemisphere data) No change from 2016... Looking as though it could well drop below 2023 in a couple of months if it goes as per 2016. and finally the 'Tropics' - So it looks as if it is the Tropics which is causing the current temperature climb. Not surprising really, as it looks as if it where it should be with a 9 month El Nino beginning to fade. - and here was me thinking/believing/misunderstanding(?) it was the Northern Hemisphere that had warmed up uncontrollably.!!! MIA

I did some checking into this and all was not quite as suggested - At the initial view of the earths surface temps it does not look good (above). However looking at the last El nIno year and last year and this year tells a slightly different tale - Here we see only a small increase on 2016 and it looks as if we will soon be cutting down below last year. I will look further into this with a look at the northern, tropics and southern hemispheres in a further post but the better half is calling!! - MIA.

Cambrian I agree, a rather fascinating worldwide NH atmospheric pattern there!. MIA

Yep, I agree, makes me want to take a walk around Elmdon park lakes this morning.

knocker An interesting article... up until now I have assumed that (eg) the mini ice age served to reduce the temperature quite quickly and that we have been steadily pulling out of that anomalous period. However the computer models say something different! We all know which will be correct.... MIA

Yep Solly a real cracker.. However was shocked to see the temp had dropped to -1.2C at 06:00, in my backyard. MIA

Yep Solly and DWW.. I registered 0.4C min also - at 06:30. Also there was a very white ground frost on my grass and roof this morning!! Gorgeous morning on the golf course which looked fantastic with the deep green turf and many different colours of flowering trees and shrubs. PS Just started raining again! MIA

Thanks for the above.. Its the same message that I outlined to WYW ..... for the UK. I am not quite so certain that the guy is giving the correct story for China however. I have heard it before 10 times in the last 10 years!! Sorry to be a grinch... MIA

A great day for weather enthusiasts.. A few heavy showers we just missed this afternoon, but a real beauty with hail and even snow flakes hit me about 30 mins ago.... Back to my memories of the 60s for real some real april showers, Proper sunshine again now...... MIA

Also had a heavy sleet and hail shower here, which lasted about 90 seconds!!! Temperature dropped 4degrees C in that time to 4.0C. Its now back up again to 6.4C and the sun is shining. Wonderful day.... MIA

As promised yesterday (was too busy last night) I am supplying the latest data from the National Grid as to the UK demand and also the emissions and also 'generation' over the current period, and also the 12 year history (which is very revealing), and indicates that the UK is in fact in the top few countries on its 'progress' currently. Firstly the current snapshot (on a very wet, cool and relatively quiet wednesday afternoon), so fairly typical of the last few months - Demand and emissions (snapshot for today) and emissions (Below 100g KWH) and the generation graph is here As can be seen the green (renewables) has been mainly used except for a small period (1 hr) when fossil fuels (red line) were increased (though still less than renewables), and mainly to cater for overseas transfers on early morning start ups. This looks quite encouraging, but only the longer term charts give the true information as to the changes the UK has made to its energy production - Demand as can be seen total demand has reduced (average) from about 36.5GW to 34KW,after dropping lower to about 30KW during the Covid epidemic and the Russian energy crisis. This represents an actual reduction of about 10 - 15 percent in our energy usage. Well done to everyone. I cannot show the graph, but this was even higher during the 'zeroes'. So 'Demand' is a good news story. Whether this fall continues may well be affected by the use of EV cars (see below). So usage has fallen... what about the 'generation' meeting this demand ? well coal has fallen off the cliff. 'Gas' has remained steady though has fallen a bit in the last few years after peaking in the 2010 to 2016 period, and a further drop can be expected as yet more wind power comes online. Nuclear has also fallen and has dropped by over a half since 2010 as plants have been decommissioned. (see below). However the really noticeable feature is the rise of wind power from 2KW to 11.7KW (on an average)........ So where does this leave our actual 'EMISSIONS'? Where inspection reveals that we have dropped from 503g per KW hr to 136g per KW hr. This number is a rate change not an actual figure. A reduction of about 72% Truly a very good performance. But that is not all in terms of the hydrocarbon output, since as I detailed above we have also seen a reduction of about 10-15% on our usage, So the total reduction is of the order of 85% on our emissions since 2010 and is even greater if we go further back to look at the 'coal' powered era that we had been through. No comments about China please! So where to - next? Well the Grid supplies all our usage energy. The last few months are indicating that we can get down to around 70g KGH (average) emissions without doing too much more (see todays chart below), That should reduce our outputs down by a further 50% (at least) on the current annual figures. The above 'National Grid' reports represents about two thirds of our annual total energy production. With travel and transport and shipping also having impacts. There is a current plan to move to EV's. This will improve further the 'total' emissions figure, and a reduction in the fossil fuel line. However, we need to consider that it will increase the demand on the power network considerably, and the initial costs are prohibitive for many people. I always think of the law that 80% (name?) of any changes can be made without too much hassle. The remaining 20% is where the problems will occur in the UK, and I do wonder whether we need to adjust our approach at this stage to one of mitigation, whilst new scientific breakthroughs come through to help with our final push to zero emissions.. The worlds future climate will not be determined by the UK!!! These are my personal views based upon the data coming out of the UK. I accept that some with perhaps personal long term held views may disagree. I wish that all countries where equally as transparent as the UK!!! The above is the actual current data. All data from the link below - https://grid.iamkate.com/ MIA

WYorksWeather Thanks for the above... We are in basic agreement on the data. although the data for China since 2015 up to 2020 (end of your chart is missing) seems to have got worse again. I think that you are understating the problem the world has got with these Chinese emissions and not giving the UK enough credit. (not just the UK, but most of the democratic western world in fact). To fully go non zero by 2030 (or even close ) was never a realistic possibility as there was not the technology available to support such a change. We have made large strides, and reducing to zero from where we are now will mean little change to the ultimate temperatures. That does not apply if we leave China to go on its planned path of increasing the coal generation output of its power usage. You yourself mention that it is twice as 'potent' as per natural gas emissions, when discussing the UK.. This does not mean we should not keep going with (our) the current plans. I'll be back later with more details on the UK current actual position. MIA

WYorksWeather I used the data portal in your link to the data. It represents the drop in coal in the production of electricity and I used the data portal in comparison with the China data see below - cf I thought that coal was agreed by all to be the major greenhouse gas enabler. China is the huge utiliser. The UK has exceeded most countries in the reduction of the use of coal. The graph above also shows how China (despite its switch to wind and solar) is still producing 85% (minimum) of its electricity from coal (as per 2020). I am not decrying China by the way, but they will be producing 80% of the worlds CO2 in 15 years time. If CO2 is the problem then excusing China will not help the CC problem.!!! My data has nothing to do with required pathways or the like as you suggest , and it is the actual data. If you are talking about the actual proportions of the various types of current electricity production up to date then refer to the current National Grid usages as displayed in several links that I can provide for the UK. There we are running about 55% renewables at the moment, as we have made extensive use of wind power at the moment. I am not aware that China provides the same information so no current analysis is possible. However I would be amazed if the figures had altered that much with China building another 400 coal powered power stations in the last 2 years as part of the expansion to get their population linked to power. Also, I did in fact under-estimate the reduction in coal in the UK as it is nearer to 95% than 80%, as opposed to it being nearer to 15% for China. MIA

WYorksWeather Thanks for the above WYW... Yes it is good to see a more realistic evaluation of the current state of our emissions. However my position (as I discussed with Solly, and previous) is that if human activities and emissions are the driver of climate change then we cannot ignore the actions of India and China. The 'accounting' figures show that by 2040 they will be producing 80% of the total greenhouse gas emissions. Yes there is still more work to be done in the countries that we can affect, but will it make any real difference to the climate whether the UK goes totally zero emissions in 2050 or 2070? Yes we still have one operative coal powered power station!!! The same applies for just about every 'western' country. (except Mexico, Canada and Argentina??). Looking at emissions the UK has reduced its 'output' by about 75% since the 1990's, China has increased their's by 400% during that time, and what concerns me is that despite claims it will be brought under control, I see no direct evidence of it actually reducing its increases for about 5 years (they say 2 years), and also none at all, that it will start reducing them for about 20 years. These are the realistic facts that should concern the activists, not the fact that the UK could go quicker (though at a cost to all of us), and that it will cause a difference of about 0.002C in 75 years time. Water cleanliness and plastic 'pollution' are however areas for immediate action. (Spoken by someone who has worked on and has some patents for plastic materials in the real world) . I will leave it at that for now as I want to keep the debate as free from politics as possible. Those are my reasons for why I choose to react to certain throw away and incorrect remarks in the thread. Lets keep it 'data' fed and not 'emotion' led. MIA