Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

EML Network

Members
  • Posts

    1,210
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Interests
    Owner of a record label, radio presenter, and a lover of snow
  • Weather Preferences
    Anything Extreme

Recent Profile Visitors

6,914 profile views

EML Network's Achievements

Rising Star

Rising Star (9/14)

  • Dedicated
  • Week One Done
  • One Month Later
  • Five years in
  • Ten years in

Recent Badges

2.2k

Reputation

  1. Why isn't anyone talking about this >> ?? If it comes to pass as modelled, this country will be on it's knee's !
  2. Hi Buddy, yup I was indeed once in Brighton, moved a few years ago just a few miles north of the North Downs now. It's just a balancing act isn't it with these types of sets ups, especially along the immediate coast line. I remember March 2013 like it was yesterday when we had a slider coming from the NW and we were just about slap bang in the right place and up on the downs there was 3-4 foot drifts where I was, which lasted for several days, but along the coast itself as far as 2 miles inland it was just a patch work of slush.
  3. So regarding Wed/Thurs the ECM has shifted around 50 miles north and the GFS around 50 miles south in terms of how far north it is suggesting any PPN might fall as the LP system makes it's way across the north of France. Those hoping to see snow falling AND SETTLING in the extreme south probably aren't going to like this chart below The entire coastline probably to a good 10 miles inland has dew points the wrong side of freezing, meaning anything that does fall is going to struggle to settle on the ground, add saturated ground into the mix and it's not really supportive of laying snow, perhaps the tops of the South Downs might see something. Personally I think your best bet would be to get a boat and head off into the middle of the English channel Also regarding the overnight Tuesday / Wed snow potential it's a similar story High ground is going to make all the difference IMO
  4. I doubt the snow will be making the headlines in a weeks time, not if this verifys anyway And then a few days later ECM looks like Armageddon for the whole of the UK, I have NEVER seen a ECM wind chart like this covering the entirety of the UK These events would be far far more destructive than a few inches of snow, that's what I'm going to be keeping my eyes on anyway as Ive already thrown the towel in on the prospects of seeing any snow
  5. Couldn't agree more with this, maybe I'm showing my inexperience but what was potentially looking like a game over scenario only a few days ago, with dartboard lows pushing right up across the UK has certainly eased off from that and things look finely balanced once again, not saying that still won't happen, but I agree with what you are saying, that's what the trend looks like to me too. Keeps us in the hunt
  6. At least the models all seem to agree that the cold air from the north will reach all areas of the UK before whatever comes from the Atlantic reaches us. In my eyes getting the cold air to blanket the uk and dig far enough south so were all in for a chance, is the first tick and although it's far from certain it is looking more and more likelly now. And not only this, but there is a slight increase in the confidence of a cold spell lasting a little longer. Normally with these types of set ups the Midlands northwards do well whilst those of us further south fair less better and I think that's what is the most likely outcome next week in my opinion. It feels to me that the way things are shaping up that we may end up with a January CET that is actually close to or even slightly below average and I cannot remember the last time we had one of those. Still theres a long way to go yet but at least the wheels haven't fallen off...yet
  7. Got to say the model consistency across the board has been pretty good at least through this week and into the weekend, the push of cold air from the North looks to be quite a fluid and slick movement with no pesky short waves getting in the way, but there is still a lot of time for them to crop up in the output. So I think looking beyond that despite the consistent modelling prior is only going to lead to the usual model variance and going by the -850 uppers alone isn't going to tell the whole story, what my eyes are being drawn to is how warm the air across southern Europe and Italy in particular is primed to be in the later stages of the modeling output. the +15 850 encroaching into southern europe, and +10 nudging into Russia, not sure that happens very often in the very heart of Winter ? The pendulum has shifted somewhat this morning to the usual N/S split and with a Jet stream profile as strong as this, I suspect the cold air will simply get mixed out, that's if it even fully gets here in the first place. Think we are going to have to wait for another bite at the cherry
  8. 3 laptops open, 1 for work, 1 for my record label, and 1 Im making music on, whilst trying to keep an eye on the radar and look out the window, I really ccould do with a clone right now. Nothing here in Epsom as of yet, had some snizzle earlier though
  9. typical when I lived in Brighton I was more often than not too far South and now Ive moved to N.Surrey It looks like im too far North
  10. This is what I have been waiting to see, the famous and illusive ''H'' shape, things are looking pretty good, though I am still not going to let myself get excited, there's a long way to go until we get there. BUT It is really good to see.
  11. Happy 2024: folks, I've been lurking on here all winter for the 15th year in a row. Wanted to wait until there was something worth talking about as up until now I've been in the ''how windy is it going to get'' camp and to see if my den in the woods would survive and keep dry (glad to say it did....2 layers of moss, a layer of bracken and a foot of straw around the walls and on the floor helped). Anyhow I wanted to 1: Throw a word of caution (especially to the newer members) and 2 allow myself to get a little bit excited For me and the way I see things using the ECM 00z as a guide, IF things unfold as per below and the +192 chart verifys then we are in a really good position from there on out to get what so many of us want to see. For me the pieces of the jigsaw don't really start falling into place until we get to +144 as that's when the deep LP system at the southern tip of Greenland heads south and by the time we get to the next frame.... It's sitting close to the Azores and we are in -NAO territory, but the reason I want to throw a word of caution is on the ECM that low travels a HUGE distance from 144 to 168, twice the length of the UK and there are other factors in play that MIGHT not make it such a swift and seemingly unhindered shift. I know there are other factors that need to be taken into consideration in other parts of the northern hemisphere that others are more knowledgable to talk about, BUT IF +192 verify's there or thereabouts I feel all roads thereafter would lead to a noteworthy cold spell, at +192 that low has now filled, the energy has split and that LP over the Azores is propping the HP over the UK up in such a way that it only has one way to go, being squeezed from all sides leading to either a northerly or easterly. Although it could end up sitting over the UK the whole time, but we'd be pretty unlucky if that were to be the case and we don't know what might come to pass afterwards I am excited about what I am seeing, but until we get to a similar position to +144 as modelled on the ECM above I am not going to get too excited Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4994355
  12. Happy 2024: folks, I've been lurking on here all winter for the 15th year in a row. Wanted to wait until there was something worth talking about as up until now I've been in the ''how windy is it going to get'' camp and to see if my den in the woods would survive and keep dry (glad to say it did....2 layers of moss, a layer of bracken and a foot of straw around the walls and on the floor helped). Anyhow I wanted to 1: Throw a word of caution (especially to the newer members) and 2 allow myself to get a little bit excited For me and the way I see things using the ECM 00z as a guide, IF things unfold as per below and the +192 chart verifys then we are in a really good position from there on out to get what so many of us want to see. For me the pieces of the jigsaw don't really start falling into place until we get to +144 as that's when the deep LP system at the southern tip of Greenland heads south and by the time we get to the next frame.... It's sitting close to the Azores and we are in -NAO territory, but the reason I want to throw a word of caution is on the ECM that low travels a HUGE distance from 144 to 168, twice the length of the UK and there are other factors in play that MIGHT not make it such a swift and seemingly unhindered shift. I know there are other factors that need to be taken into consideration in other parts of the northern hemisphere that others are more knowledgable to talk about, BUT IF +192 verify's there or thereabouts I feel all roads thereafter would lead to a noteworthy cold spell, at +192 that low has now filled, the energy has split and that LP over the Azores is propping the HP over the UK up in such a way that it only has one way to go, being squeezed from all sides leading to either a northerly or easterly. Although it could end up sitting over the UK the whole time, but we'd be pretty unlucky if that were to be the case and we don't know what might come to pass afterwards I am excited about what I am seeing, but until we get to a similar position to +144 as modelled on the ECM above I am not going to get too excited
×
×
  • Create New...