Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Turning more to snow here but not expecting much if any of it settling due to my bad altitude

The latest 6z GFS ensembles look colder both in the short term and from 20/1 onwards compared to the 0z set. Signs that the jet will maintain a bit more of a Southerly latitude going forwards as anticipated (in some quarters)?

And what if said raging jet passes to the South of the UK? Possible multiple snow opportunities?

Surely potential for lows of the polar variety to form in a flow that cold?

Big upgrade on the pub run (short ensembles) if cold is your thing

The trendsetter for the pub run -18 850s for our part of the world....

@bluearmy that ECM run surely means..... "We're gonna need a bigger envelope"

This pub run doesn't see positive uppers getting any further north than around a line from Manchester to Hull before diving South again. Better than the 12z and again highlights the risk of battleground snow. I still think the cold will stay much further South than what the GFS is showing regardless. Interesting times

UKMO with a powerhouse Northerly straight into France no messing. Bosh!!

Any chance of the odd snow shower crossing the region later on tomorrow? Seen a couple of models which highlight the risk? Temperatures and dew points look favourable

I would be interested to hear the thoughts of @Cheshire Freeze today as I know he has been bullish about our cold prospects over Christmas and particularly into the new year period? Charts seem at odds with his expectations resulting from the background drivers especially the Iberia / Euro heights?

I don't know which output you are referring to when talking about the ECM as the difference between last night's run and this morning's is night and day? Last night's run looked decent with a Greenland wedge if you're of a cold persuasion and this morning's is well....the less said the better!

I thought low heights / thicknesses were conducive to polar low formation? Looks like a turbulent 'high impact' spell of weather coming up over Christmas though regardless!

No expert but would the low thicknesses on that chart not make conditions more favourable for snow?

Agreed. With the potential proper breakdown of cold still some 120 hours away I don't think we have seen the end of the drama yet. ECM to pull out a corker the pub run follows up and then we will be bought back down to earth on the morning runs you watch!