zubzero

My least favourite weather type, cold rain and windy yuk. + come the time it would be much more modified and snow falling much less widespread than what is shown.

That's a sad amount off snow in Europe for Mid-Winter Opps that's snow fall probabilitie still is poor fir Western Europe https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=16

With a turtle on its back

I wish sometimes SSW did not exist, because soon as it turns mild posts appear proclaiming with out a SSW event winter is over. My opinion is way to much emphasis is placed on them its just one piece in a 1,000000 and hugely complicated piece jigsaw.

.? It's about average if not slightly below compared to the ens https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=274&y=54&run=12&type=2&runpara=0&mode=1

That's hight anomaly not temperature??

You never know? If a similar pattern change like that does occur at some point. It's possible that it may crop up at shortish range. Worth keeping an 👁 on.

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS) WWW.METEOCIEL.FR meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles... And p30 has a hurricane like low approaching the Bay of Biscay

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS) WWW.METEOCIEL.FR meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles... p15 on the GEFS. The UK has disappeared, as has my shed,roof and fence

A few positive signs from that, even though the vortex of doom is raging away. Is heights finally falling to the south and things settling down with frost 'n' fog returning.

Great vid thanks. The 40C in July was historic and even though I'm not a heat lover, to experience 40C was the the most epic weather event Ive experienced. Happy New year, here's to -40C and 40inch of snow in 2023

The heights to the south are relentless, is a brief glimmer off hope in the 18z gfs of them ridgeing north but are soon flattened and its back to square one

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=228&mode=0 It's New-years day not pancake day GFS, is flat as a pancake. Happy New year To you all

It tells you here Unified Model WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK The Unified Model (UM) is a numerical model of the atmosphere used for both weather and climate applications. Hope that helps.

You can use the argument that a cold spell can soon appear and I agree, but to each example of a cold spell appearing out of no where,there are 10 that show it wiping out a month of Winter with wind and rain, as that's the default winter pattern for the UK.

Cold zonality don't exist for most of the population. A ture polar northwesterly is more rare then an easterly.

The cold spell, not snap was far from bog standard a week+ of ice days with night temperatures of -10C at night I low land England is very cold and probably about once a decade chance of happening on average.

I'm not signalling you out. But that's a odd aspect of model output. We don't know with any great detail of what the weather will be like in 7 days let alone 7 weeks. But can write of a month+ of winter in one sentence . Even in a zonal spell there is still about a 20% chance of cold returning within a 10 day period. If you or anyone could forecast the weather for a month ahead with 50% accuracy you would all be billionaire's.

It's not crap at all its your interpretation of the data that is. It's very rare that a data suite will show a very strong signal post 10 days. If your seeing a mass of blocking by looking at a mean chart in the +168 range, and your interpretation of said chart don't come to fruition what's crap? Your view of the model, or the model?? At a basic level it's done by % chance. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_extended_meteogram?base_time=202212260000&lat=51.4333&lon=-1.0&station_name=Reading The key is at the bottem.

It's not crap, people take a mean chart in isolation and jump to conclusions. Obviously the futher out the less accurate it becomes but you need to view the entire data suite to get a broad view of the medium range outlook.

Rain/sleet for most. Buxton for example may see a spell of heavy snow before milder air quickly rushes in from the south west https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations-hd/114h.htm

Running out off steam and a SSW don't mix as its "sudden" and not gradual warm up.

Merry Christmas one and all. I'm hoping for a belated present off cold wrapped in snow.

Yes it tells you on the thier website https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/data

Quick in strat terms is a week at best to affect the surface. Anyway I'm sure the meto don't use strat forecasts in their basic 16-30 day out look. It's a mix off ecm 46 glosea and -decider a mix of various mid term ens.