Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Cutty Dyer

Members
  • Posts

    28
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Cutty Dyer

  1. Nope, but I emailed the Met Office yesterday to report the lack of updates; reply came the same day stating that they will look into it.
  2. The relationship between solar UV output and the solar cycle was established way back in the late 70's (beginning of the satellite era): As for your other questions, they're covered in the MetOffice presentation - why not click on the link and have a read? Pdf link: http://lasp.colorado...n_sorce2012.pdf
  3. Sunspot numbers & solar UV output are in phase - the above MetOffice presentation demonstrates this.
  4. Highest (not quite) for this cycle - almost, but still very low in a historical context: Current activity "low levels"
  5. I notice that in the French Meteo 2013 Summer forecast "A Year Without Summer?" Arctic influence isn't mentioned . Extract: A year without a summer? The combination of a long and late winter which resulted in a cooling of the waters in the seas and solar activity become very weak for several months may have a direct effect on the weather of our summer: some calculations considering an anomaly -2 ° to - 3 in France with rainfall totals twice higher than normal. Link: http://actualite.lachainemeteo.com/actualite-meteo/2013-05-25-09h04/meteo-2013---une-annee-sans-ete---21057.php
  6. Very interesting 2012 MetOffice presentation posted on the lasp.colorado.edu website. Extract from summary: • Increasing modelling evidence to support the observed modulation of the AO/NAO by UV solar variability. It begs the question: in relation to the recent cold winters, why is the MET Office's Chief Scientist Julia Slingo placing so much emphasis on the possibility that "Arctic Amplification" is the cause? Pdf link: http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2012ScienceMeeting/docs/presentations/S2-01_Ineson_sorce2012.pdf
  7. The Balkans have been hit hard - "In Serbia's northern province of Vojvodina, 50cm (20ins) of snow fell in just a few hours" See: http://news.sky.com/...st-hits-balkans
  8. "The Moscow weather service said today that a third of November's typical amount of snow had fallen in the past 24 hours, creating a 4.7in (12cm) cover - and more is forecast. Moscow's city hall said the Russian capital has not seen a bigger snowfall in November for about 50 years." I guess they should know.
  9. As reported on the Sky News channel: Link: http://news.sky.com/story/1018261/moscow-hit-by-biggest-snowfall-in-50-years
  10. Good observation; interesting that the overall trend is on the rise.
  11. Being a much maligned bunch we tend to congregate in numbers; now back to the sensationalist posts - anyone seen this before? Details here: http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50
  12. With reference to solar max, I've been trying to find any updates from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan ref the solar observation satellite Hinode. This sensationalist piece was published in April: http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201204200075 I've been unable to find any later data/articles.
  13. Love this thread; specifically the anticipation / expectation it brings of a cold UK Winter. Sun is very quiet at the moment; interesting article published this week in the AGU correlating low solar activity and cold European winters: http://www.agu.org/n...2/2012-39.shtml Another similar article published by the NewScientist back in 2004 correlating low sunspot activity and the price of cerials: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn6680
  14. I suspect as a country, we wouldn't cope very well. Extracts from the Manchester Guardian booklet "The Long Winter 1962-3" 30th December At least five people died in snowstorms over southern England, two of them from suffocation after spending the night in a car under a drift. More than 200 roads were blocked and it is estimated that 95,000 miles of roads were snowbound. Things were worst in the West Country, where drifts were up to 15ft. deep. Only the Tamar bridge linked Devon with Cornwall. Helicopters were called to assist people trapped in North Devon. In Kent it took one man 90 minutes to drive 440 yards. The Meteorological Office reported signs of a thaw. 31st December Five more deaths occurred, and in Devon conditions were already comparable to those of 1947. Two thousand ponies had been buried under drifts in Dartmoor for three days and an unknown number of sheep were in similar plight. In the north there was a gale which brought down a 200ft. chimney in Rochdale. Men at 26 power stations decided to ban overtime and work to rule which meant, according to their spokesman, Mr Charles Doyle that "roughly one-third of the electricity supply industry" was affected. The Meteorological Office reported that seven towns had beaten the December sunshine record of 100.1 hours, which had existed since 1917. At the same time, it decided that there wasn't, after all, going to be a thaw. 1st January Continuing blizzards over the South of England were described as the worst for 82 years. (on January 18, 1881, according to legend, there was a 15ft. snow drift in Oxford Circus). Dozens of villages were cut off and helicopters were used to drop fodder and other supplies to isolated communities in the West. One flight was made with milk and food for a children's nursery in Dorset. More than 500 lorries from all parts of the country were queuing for rock salt at a mine in Cheshire. The National Dairy Council suggested that so many empty milk bottles had been lost in the snow that there might not be enough full ones to go round. 2nd January It was snowing hard in nine counties south of the Kent-Somerset line and an Automobile Association spokesman reckoned that "the only thing travelling up the M1 is snow". Four more deaths were attributable to the weather. Men at another eleven power stations joined the work-to-rule movement. Vegetable prices began to rise rapidly. 3rd January A slight thaw came to parts of Europe, excluding Britain, where the blizzard spread northwards. A Royal Automobile Club official, not to be outdone by the fluency of the A.A. said that "the Peak District looks like the Alps" and Pennine villages became isolated. In Somerset the railway line between Minehead and Taunton was blocked by a train stuck in a snowdrift, another train in the area was abandoned by its crew, who took refuge in a farmhouse, and rail conditions in the West were so bad that priority was given to trains carrying food, coal, oil and petrol. Fifty B.E.A. flights were cancelled at London Airport, Gatwick was closed and London dairies began drawing on emergency stocks. It was reported 20,000 driving tests had been cancelled during the week. The unions recommended an official work-to-rule in all power stations. 4th January A slight thaw came to parts of Europe, excluding Britain, where the blizzard spread northwards. A Royal Automobile Club official, not to be outdone by the fluency of the A.A. said that "the Peak District looks like the Alps" and Pennine villages became isolated. In Somerset the railway line between Minehead and Taunton was blocked by a train stuck in a snowdrift, another train in the area was abandoned by its crew, who took refuge in a farmhouse, and rail conditions in the West were so bad that priority was given to trains carrying food, coal, oil and petrol. Fifty B.E.A. flights were cancelled at London Airport, Gatwick was closed and London dairies began drawing on emergency stocks. It was reported 20,000 driving tests had been cancelled during the week. The unions recommended an official work-to-rule in all power stations. 6th January Dynamite was used after an avalanche had blocked the railway line from Edinburgh to Carlisle near Galashiels and 1,300 sheep, ponies, and bullocks were dug out of drifts on Dartmoor. A lifeboat from a coaster which had been missing since December 28 on a voyage from Swansea to Rouen was found near Land's End. 7th January At Grantown-on-Spey, Morayshire, the temperature fell to -22deg.C. It was noticed that sheep were being eaten alive by foxes on Dartmoor and it was feared that hungry ponies might attack people carrying food in the New Forest. At Billesdon, in Leicestershire, dustbins began to freeze on to the fingers of the dustmen. 8th January The rearranged F.A. Cup Ties were again postponed; 145 out of 211 Cup and League fixtures had suffered this fate in 19 days. It was decided to move the final England Rugby Union trial from Twickenham to Torquay, where things might be balmier. In Scotland aircraft dropped 96 bales of hay to animals near Hawick. 11th January Shop stewards representing the London power stations met on a day of reduced voltage throughout the country and voted for " a more rigid application" of the work-to-rule. Candles were ready on the table during the meeting lest the worst should befall. Football pools were again cancelled. Bristol harbour froze, and so did Britain's second fastest flowing river - the Arun, in Sussex. 13th January The Central Electricity Generating Board asked housewives to postpone the morning's washing - or, at least, the ironing until later in the week. Thousands of homes in the London area were without electricity, among them Mr Charles Doyle's. The Southern Region of British Railways announced there would be a 50 per cent reduction of heating on its electric trains. Two more people died as a result of the weather. 14th January Three people were gassed after the frost had burst mains and 20 others were taken to hospital. Workmen at three London power stations suspended their work-to-rule campaign, but much of the city was still blacked out and the Ministry of Works stopped the fountains in Trafalgar Square. Over 5000 children were sent home in Portsmouth, where twenty schools were closed because of frozen lavatories. Seagulls were frozen into the water in Poole Harbour. 15th January Eight more people were gassed as a result of burst mains, five of them in one family in Salford. 16th January A compromise was reached in the dispute over wages which led to the work-to-rule in power stations. For the twenty-fifth consecutive day the temperature in London was below -4deg.C., the only comparable spells there being runs of 24 days in 1890 and 1895. Blizzards swept over the Yorkshire Moors and 100 vehicles were abandoned on the road between Whitby and Pickering. The A39 at Porlock Hill in Devon was blocked for the twenty-first day in succession. 17th January In spite of the pay settlement the work to rule continued unofficially in some power stations. This together with a record demand for power in the area, caused yet another blackout in South-east England. At the laying of a foundation stone in Nottingham a brazier had to be lit to stop the concrete from freezing. 18th January Blizzards virtually cut Scotland off from England and more than 200 vehicles were abandoned on Stainmore in Westmorland. Locomotives in the Western Region began to freeze up while they were running. In Gloucestershire a woman was found frozen to death outside her cottage. But the chilliest news of the day was of the death of Mr. Gaitskell. 20th January After a week of blizzards in most parts of Britain conditions were worse than ever. In only six of the 86 counties (excepting Northern Ireland) were roads free from blocks and stranded vehicles. Helicopters evacuated 300 workmen from the Fylingdales early-warning station. Two climbers were killed by an avalanche in the Chew Valley, near Oldham, a walker died some miles away near Ramsbottom, and a man was found dead in a stranded car near Blackburn. Ice floes in the Bristol Channel stopped the Beachley Ferry. Two coachloads of people stuck all night in a snowdrift were rescued in Derbyshire, and trains were trapped in drifts in Hertfordshire, Lancashire and Cheshire. Forty lorry drivers spent their third night in hotels or cafes between Bowes (Yorkshire) and Brough (Westmorland), and 23 men were saved from a Lebanese vessel which went aground at South Shields. London Airport was closed and the Pools Promoters Association, after another blank Saturday, decided that more drastic measures were required. From now on, even if more than 30 football matches were postponed, the weekly gamble would be possible. A panel of experts would produce a hypothetical result for the unplayed games. 22nd January For the first time since 1947 large patches of ice were seen drifting in the Mersey off Liverpool and pack ice was also reported from the Solent, the Humber, and from East Anglia. At Eastbourne the sea froze 100 feet offshore along a two-mile stretch of the coast. Gas supplies were cut off from industry in South Wales after the Wales Gas Board had reported an unprecedented demand. Seven more deaths were attributed to the weather. 23rd January On what was generally described as the coldest night of the winter, the British Insurance Association estimated that already the weather had cost more than £5M in claims. Two hundred London buses were put out of action when their fuel froze. Two more people died from the cold. The Mancunian Express took nearly ten hours to get from Euston to Manchester- a journey it generally completes in just over three and a half hours. 24th January There was more chaos on the railways as diesel fuel, coal, points and water troughs froze. Passengers travelling in one train from St.Pancras to Manchester took only ten minutes short of twelve hours to cover the 189 miles. They were lucky. Many trains didn't run at all. Fifty families were evacuated from a block of flats in Streatham because they were too hot; there was a fault in the central-heating system. On the other side of London bonfires were lit in the streets of Paddington to prevent water freezing in the stand pipes. Cabinet met to discuss emergency measures. 25th January There was more chaos on the railways as diesel fuel, coal, points and water troughs froze. Passengers travelling in one train from St.Pancras to Manchester took only ten minutes short of twelve hours to cover the 189 miles. They were lucky. Many trains didn't run at all. Fifty families were evacuated from a block of flats in Streatham because they were too hot; there was a fault in the central-heating system. On the other side of London bonfires were lit in the streets of Paddington to prevent water freezing in the stand pipes. Cabinet met to discuss emergency measures. 27th January A week-end thaw coincided with the worst power failure in the National Grid in 35 years of operation. The East Midlands was cut off from the North and South and there were widespread power failures. But the thaw allowed the National Coal Board to get supplies moving again. After water mains had burst, there was flooding in London (where firemen dealt with 1473 cases during the weekend), Cambourne and Oxford (where several hundred books were damaged in the library of Trinity College). A 45lb lamb was roasted on the Oulton Broad, Norfolk - then it was taken away in a hurry because the charcoal was melting the ice. In the same county an amateur forecaster who had accurately predicted a severe winter last September suddenly decided that the summer would be "so hot people would be dropping dead from the heat". 28th January The slow thaw continued and a new hazard arose. Trains were diverted at Caerphilly after 10 tons of ice had dropped from a ventilating shaft; and at Torpantau, Brecon, where 50 tons overhung a tunnel mouth. Derbyshire County Council decided to use 400 lb of gelignite to blow up a snow cornice hanging 200 feet above the Snake pass which had been closed to traffic between Manchester and Sheffield for 11 days. The British Insurance Association revised its estimate of winter claims. These, it now reckoned, would amount to £15M. In Liverpool, it was said that the cost of snow clearance was by now £95,000 - almost twice as much as in 1947. February 1st The slow thaw ended and there were snow showers in central and southern England; in West Sussex three inches fell in an hour. On the eve of another chill Saturday, the number of football matches cancelled since December 22 approached 400. February 4th Cornwall and Pembroke were cut off by blizzards; 50 people spent the night in a train on the edge of Dartmoor and 70 lorry drivers took refuge in a school at Whiddon Down, between Exeter and Okehampton, after being surrounded by deep drifts. In Wales, Llanelli was isolated. In Scotland 150 lorry drivers, caught between Lanark and Abington, took to a public hall for the night; two school buses were stuck in Midlothian, the children being rescued by farmers; and passengers in three buses stranded at Drumgoyne were sheltered at Killearn Hospital. Twelve school-children had to be found accommodation in Kirkby Stephen, Westmorland, when drifts stopped their bus. February 6th The blizzards continued in the North. A helicopter rescued passengers from a train stuck overnight at Barrhill, Ayrshire, and another train was dug out of a drift at Disley, Cheshire. A third arrived in Stranraer 17 1/2 hours late from London. Nearly 1,000 vehicles were trapped on the Great North Road near Alnwick, a snowplough got stuck in a drift in Perthshire, and Edinburgh was cut off. In the West Country a thaw brought danger of flooding. Devon Water Board ordered a 24-hour watch on all rivers, and in Plymouth the Services planned a flood-relief operation, using helicopters and amphibious vehicles. In Essex it was feared the seven weeks of frost had killed between 60 and 70 per cent of the local oyster beds. February 7th Only two roads were open between England and Scotland, and in Edinburgh the snow was said to be " so thick in places that people were walking about on the hedges". At Belfast's airport, staff were marooned for the night and helicopters flew food supplies to isolated villages in County Londonderry. Devon River Board chief engineer, in a broadcast, said he expected rivers in the county to burst their banks within 24 hours. Police dynamited ice on the Exe to prevent flooding and children were evacuated from a school at Crediton. At East Grinstead, in Sussex, foxes began to hunt in pairs in the town centre and cat owners were advised to keep their pets indoors. Another death was reported. February 8th There was a general thaw except in Scotland, North-east England, and North Devon, where a sudden reversion prevented the expected flooding of rivers. Five villages in the Border counties were still cut off and 108 main roads in Britain remained blocked. More helicopter flights took place in Northern Ireland, where farmers prepared to slaughter 1,500 pigs because they had run out of feeding stuffs. There was another death. February 10th There was a general thaw except in Scotland, North-east England, and North Devon, where a sudden reversion prevented the expected flooding of rivers. Five villages in the Border counties were still cut off and 108 main roads in Britain remained blocked. More helicopter flights took place in Northern Ireland, where farmers prepared to slaughter 1,500 pigs because they had run out of feeding stuffs. There was another death. February 11th The Air Ministry decided that the cold spell would not end "for quite a long time to come", while troops with bulldozers struggled through snow drifts to relieve five farms in West Carmarthanshire. The Scottish Football League Management Committee, anxious that 1963 should remain a unique experience, proposed that in future the close season should extend from December 7 until the first Saturday in March. February 13th The Meteorological Office prophesised that temperatures would shortly rise in all parts of Britain, and Devon's flood-emergency plan was again brought out of the cold. In the North-west stocks of house coal were "almost exhausted". February 14th Devon got its floods at last and so did other parts of the West Country. There was 4ft. of water on the Crediton-Okehampton road, 3ft. between Exeter and Bridgewater, and the same depth on roads between Taunton, Langport and Wantage. The Army sent in eight D.U.K.W.s to Taunton where cars were stranded in the flood water. On the Scottish Border, however, snow conditions were "fearful,", according to the R.A.C., workers at Fylingdales were again marooned, there was more snow in Derbyshire, and a full blizzard in Hampshire. February 15th Once again, the thaw cut out, which at least relieved the threat of disastrous flooding in the West Country, though hundreds of acres in North Dorset and east Somerset were by now under water. There was more snow from Kent to Scotland. Roads were again blocked across the Pennines, over Shap, and in Mid-Wales, North Yorkshire, and Scotland. Conditions were the worst of the winter between Perth and Inverness, where vehicles were buried beneath 15ft. drifts. Water rationing began in Aberystwyth, an emergency it shared with Carmarthen. For the first time since 1947 the Derbyshire Moorland Grazing Committee started an emergency feeding programme for 3,000 starving sheep on the fells. February 17th In the South and West hopes rose on a day of brilliant sunshine and all main roads were open across Dartmoor for the first time since Christmas. Things, in fact, looked like getting back to normal everywhere except on the Border and in South and East England where many roads were still blocked. After a snowplough had given up trying to get across Stainmore, an A.A. patrolman leaned on his shovel and struck the roof of a car buried beneath his feet. February 23rd More than half the football League games were played and for the first time since December 28, the pools functioned without the hypothetical results of the experts. It was sunny throughout the country and only in the South-east were temperatures as low as 1deg. C. In this area there was more snow in the early morning. It was to be the last of the official winter period. March 1st After three days, disastrous heath fires on the Isle of Skye were brought under control. In the north of the Island they had swept across a seven-mile front; in the south thirty square miles of grazing land were burned and many sheep on them. They had been caused by two things: Skye's lowest February rainfall for thirty years and frost which had shrivelled the grass. March 2nd Troops relieved a farm on Dartmoor which had been cut off by 20ft snow drifts for 66 days. With only fourteen Football League Matches postponed, soccer had its best day for eleven weeks. There was still no football at Halifax, but the local club opened its ground as a public ice rink and hundreds skated on it. March 5th This was the first night free of frost anywhere in Great Britain since December 22. On March 6 London had its warmest (16deg. C) day since October 25, and temperatures rose sharply throughout the country. This, together with heavy rain, caused flooding on roads in Southern Scotland and the North of England. In Kendal, which had its first rain for 74 days, The River Kent was transformed from an almost dry bed into a 10ft.-deep torrent within 24 hours. And at Shrewsbury the Severn rose more than 5ft. between midnight and breakfast time. The winter was over.
  15. Last nights min temp up here on Dartmoor was 4.1°c - reminding me to get more firewood in for this coming winter...
  16. Here are a couple of good links... The RTOFS graphic displaying horizontal current (the current strength appears to have recently increased): http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest The NASA Earth Observatory graphic for sea surface temp anomaly: http://earthobservat...1=AMSRE_SSTAn_M The temp anomaly graphic appears to show a cooler band of water in the approx location of the Gulf Stream (highlighted within a red ring):
  17. Nooooooooo.... It would spoil all the fun; I for one love the added anticipation that a delayed post delivers.
  18. I suspect your suspicions are correct; while the data is reported to be from NASA the graph originates from the "skeptic" blog of Roy Spencer (apologies for not stating source).
  19. I don't know. Interestingly, the land temp anomaly graphic for July'11 also shows high temps for the Arctic but low for large areas globally? - very difficult to quantify area visually.
  20. There's a wonderful animation of global sea surface temperature anomaly (2002 to 2011) at: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/view.php?d1=AMSRE_SSTAn_M There are two areas of particular interest that catch my eye. The 1st being the above norm waters around the Arctic Circle (cause of excessive melt?), the 2nd being the apparent cooler waters along the length of the Gulf Stream. Below is a graph of AMSR-E global sea surface temperatures which suggests that the overall surface temperature is falling - this I find surprising.
×
×
  • Create New...