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Didn't land god knows where there going now

I want cold and snow as much as anyone my young son constantly asking when is it going to snow enough to go on sledge. But I just can't see us getting opportunity for at least 3 weeks. I know MJO forecast is just that but it's not trending in a good direction. A few days back ECM and GFS both had MJO reaching phase 7 at decent amplitude. Now ECM has it barely reaching for phase 7 and heading for COD and GFS looks even worse diving into the COD from phase 6 and looking like it's going to cycle back to phase 5.

I am not sure about. The snow currently coming down around Liverpool/Manchester was forecast for Glasgow this suggest the short wave is actually much further south than forecast (150miles) this should result in the low to south west phasing with it early/further west and potentially being dragged slightly further north.

Big 6z coming up regarding tomorrow's snow chances for the south. I think we might see a big shift north as the short wave this morning and associated snow that was supposed to be over the central belt of Scotland is actually much further south west giving snow to northern Ireland and north west. With it being further south the low coming in from Atlantic should phase with it earlier and therefore potentially be dragged further north.

Last 24hr trend has been too move Wednesday snow north. Looks like any further moves north will bring lead to it becoming too marginal for the south coast, but will bring the midlands into play. I think at least somewhere will get buried thou whether that is far south or as far up as Birmingham we won't know until 24hours before.

I don't why people dispontent with what showing on models this is what we would expect with where the MJO, from the 12th MJo will go into phase 7 then 8 a week after and looks like it might then go back across the COD into phase 7 again. That means at least We don't need a SSW the vortex isn't currently that strong. The cold weather we just had was always on borrowed time with where we were in MJO cycle and pressure over southern Europe was always going to rise. We now have 2 weeks of wet weather before affects of MJO going into phase 7 around the 11th to filter through, looks like MJo then going into 8 and potentially back into 7 via the COD, so potential for a longer cold spell (2weeks) next time but don't expect any severe until at least 22nd. I would go as far to say if we lucky with the MJO cycling between phase 7/8/1 a couple of times we probably don't want a SSW a weak vortex is better option and stops any Greenland high moving to far west.

O no that's not good with the cold winning out at this far out, it's going to miss to the south again lol.

I am starting to think 7th December might be a bit special. Yes currently just showing heavy rain everywhere but that low that end the spell is being modelled further and further south and getting more enlongated. At this far out I would say it's pretty much in perfect position with how much everything moves south. Calling a channel low blizzard now

Just for fun, how cold would this be minus 12/13 uppers in slack north easterly with snow on the ground.

Last sentence definitely true, watching the ensembles roll out think they might need to rescale that above chart in a couple of frames time for ensemble 21 minus 16 uppers might make it.

Icon at 150 The low about coming in is slightly to far north which at this far out is excellent as we know from experience it will more than likely trend further and further south.

Yeah those would be carnage, unfortunately not out of question as definitely trended that way.

So the 6z GFS moves further north west again. Not looking good for Kent coasts and strong enough further inland now to cause serious travel as likely Dartford and Medway bridges be closed

0z GFS is further north west than 18z by quite a bit, extreme gusts 90mph+ now clipping places such a Brighton. The rest of the models not as extreme but icon and GEM also bit further north than there 12z runs. Path still not nailed down yet.

Icon, slightly north than 18z run GFS a lot more so, and looks a worrying the purple shading touching the coast at 7am between Brighton and Eastbourne depicts gusts of 110 knots/125mph