Man With Beard

Might need to change the title of this thread to Winter and Spring post mortem! The ultimate in winter/spring nightmare combos currently in the models - perfect winter synoptics occurring at the first possible moment where they probably won't deliver.

GFS 12Z keeps the low running up the channel. Likely that it will correct south into France as channel lows tend to do in winter... ... strike that - since it's just about too warm for snow, instead it's going to be a bullseye hit for the south with copious amounts of rain. This really has been the mother of disappointing winters.

Lukesluckybunch This is a great position to be in. I do feel good about a potential snow situation the week after the coming one - in recent years, models have underdone the speed of everything coming from the east at D8 when accompanied by northern blocking, so I would place my money on the easterly gaining momentum in the coming days, not losing it.

minus10 No surprise to me. I'm getting to the stage where I'm considering March to be my main winter month! February has brought close to zero snow even falling from the sky in the past 20 years on the south coast, apart from the last couple of days in 2018. March probably sees snow falling 1 in 2 years here, and 3 good coverings since 2013. The frustration, of course, is that although we often get excellent synoptics in March, they'd be so much more wintry in January! Dare I say there's been many a year recently where the March synoptics rivalled January 1947 or 1963 synoptics in terms of wintry potential (2013 stands out), but the depth of cold of course was capped by the increase in solar strength and daylight hours!

Having had a "busy" life period recently I've been away from the forum for a while, and so I've just been catching up ... great thread! I think one thing to add (probably has been but I'm only on page 2) ... I think there's a lack of appreciation that global signals are very difficult to correlate to "is it going to snow north or south of the M4"? Global signals are only every starting point relating to a general area of the globe. They're never a guarantee of the end result for a specific location. I hear Scandinavia has experienced a very cold winter. Doesn't that suggest it could have been us but for a little tweaking? As much as science feels as if it should be perfect, and there's a craving for solutions as perfect as maths, we're just not there yet when it comes to scientific explanation, whether meteorology, or other stuff like the origins of the human race.

Pretty spectacular capitulation on ECM ensembles in the past 48 hours wrt to Scandi/Sceuro high for the 16th February being completely tossed out - the mean was up to 1035mb at one point but has now been replaced by a Scandi low! Thankfully for nerves on here it never looked right for UK wintry weather anyway. Perhaps the lesson is that the models are struggling big-time at the moment over something, and possibly more changes to come?

Bit further ahead ... a really interesting chart here from the ECM ensembles 00Z, which shows virtual non-existence of westerly winds for London after about D8 until D15:

IDO The period 15-20 February looks rather interesting. Consistent signals for a massive departure from the norm.

A wide variety of snow options by Thursday on the GEFS, and that nagging thought that these set-ups often correct south between T120 and T72?

In very slight defence, they did put the Amber warning on a trajectory that meant it could turn red. But the public probably would not have been away of this. Is there a case for putting somewhere on a "red watch", a bit like a hurricane watch in the Caribbean? In other words "There's the chance the warning may be upgraded to red". That way, no overcommital from the Met Office, and people get adequate notice.

It was a tough one to call, though? For us on the coast, I'd say there's been many a similar storm with a yellow warning, but I think our coastal areas are better able to deal with a 60mph wind than areas inland, and perhaps an amber warning at 60mph is appropriate away from the coast? In which case, probably the right call just about. And who would have thought Odiham, 30 miles directly inland from me, would clock 70mph, whilst local coastal stations wouldn't even get to 60mph? It was a strange, patchy storm.

Yes, it was quite something for a storm to be experienced nationwide at the same time. In the end, the Met Office were closer than the models except maybe in the most northern areas. Certainly my preferred GFS was a bit patchy in its accuracy - yes, a few 65s/70s inland, but not as widely as they'd modelled. The south coast where I am was certainly a bit under, but it was still a useful storm. A bit over hyped by the media though - the amount of coverage yesterday suggested something like Burns Day was on the cards, but in reality nothing like that was ever in the forecast away from Scotland.

Yet 73mph just up the road at Pembrey...must be getting some protection at Cardiff

What are your thoughts for the south coast? I was thinking 50 mph early evening, perhaps scraping 70mph at the peak later in the evening at Portland/St Catherine's Point?

I don't know which model you are referring to for this downgrade, though, GFS has been fairly stable for a few days. Re: AROME high gusts: I saw this model attempt such streaks in the last storm near me, didn't materialize. But one to watch.

Almost every spot south of Glasgow with a gust above 60 mph

Hello all, interesting afternoon/evening coming up, I will be watching closely for something I've noticed in recent storms - the accuracy of the GFS in predicting gusts. For the past few storms, I felt it was the only model to absolutely nail the intensity of the wind. If my theory about the GFS is correct, then 65-70mph gusts may be quite commonplace between the M4 and southern Scotland this evening regardless of inland/coastal (which is an increase of about 10mph on the Met Office warning), with 80-85mph possible on exposed coasts in the North West. It is here in the North West that I think a red warning may be possible, touch and go though and of course Sunday evening isn't the most active of times so that might prevent the red warning. I was a little surprised the Met Office didn't just blanket the whole of England in an orange warning, seems it could be quite stormy anywhere.

Re: the weekend's storms - I trust the GFS more than any other model on wind strength, but only within T72. It's interesting that as the Sunday event moves to within this timeframe, the GFS has watered it down slightly to probably yellow warning territory. The new Monday event now looks the more serious on the GFS, but that's still T96, where anything still goes on this particular model.

Sadly this is becoming an annual event. How many times have we seen a potential major snowfall miss the south coast by 20 miles? Got to be 4 or 5 times in recent years. So much want my kids to see a proper snowfall without having to go to Lapland!

Oh, remember that snow area for the south on Wednesday? Well, the ECM ensembles finally dropped it tonight - only about 10% of members good for a covering in the far south, down from 35% last night.

The ICON accumulated precipitation chart up to Saturday is a bit of slap in the face for snow lovers in central and southern areas - precipitation virtually everywhere in the Atlantic and Europe apart from here! Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5013129

The ICON accumulated precipitation chart up to Saturday is a bit of slap in the face for snow lovers in central and southern areas - precipitation virtually everywhere in the Atlantic and Europe apart from here!

There was a point about 4 days ago when nearly no ensembles took the snow into France, and several took it to Manchester - I remember looking.

There's plenty of it this Wednesday, up to a 50mm fall just 100 miles away on some forecasts! (though may not all be snow for whoever hits the bullseye)

This is not aimed at you - it just follows on from your post - but I am quite surprised at the "surprise" that the cold will likely relent after the weekend. Was there ever an ensemble set suggesting differently?