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TSNWK

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Everything posted by TSNWK

  1. To get the vortex into that sort of state I would be looking for something to have underpinned it? MAJOR SSW for example... is there?
  2. Be good to see ecm starting to sniff around this opportunity day 9 and day 10
  3. Eyebrow raised - are ready for the final chase of core winter...
  4. It looks further north by about 50 miles over the western channel. However I’m not sure if that’s a real nudge north or just because the system is a little quicker than progged so it gives the perception of being further north when compared with T +0 forecast.
  5. Either further north or is coming in quicker..so it looks further north as more advanced as such at this time
  6. And a fat load of good that is.. as we go mild and zonal for rest of month thanks in no small part to this warming and reverse
  7. Just starting to show up in the south west approaches.. looks pretty much aligned to what is forecast at T0
  8. Agree. On more than one occasion I've seen the radar been 50 or miles out when matched against a t +0 forecast.. should get a darn good clue this evening as the low heads up through South west approaches
  9. This might be our only chance this winter...got to squeeze it as long as possible. Could be a nowcast situation
  10. Wrap around effect...as low passes under us we could bring stuff in from the north Sea as winds go north easterly for 12 hours or so..
  11. Need to see it move north from 30 hours.. good thing is that it will be settled by 4. As not watching rest of run and mildness post Saturday
  12. Icon takes Wednesday perception south a smidge Chances of any snowfall in south of region on back of that reduced from small to very small
  13. Bloomin heck.. sounds fraught with complications. Can't we just have an ssw to smash up the vortex and take our chances when the music stops, the parts land.
  14. My view..so long as we have models clipping south coast at least in models throughout Tuesday and the trend is not southerly corrections then it is at least worth while checking radar returns initially as the low approaches to form a view if the radar is aligned with the +0 forecast
  15. Indeed.. could go to the wire this one. I've seen 50 miles shift on the day when comparing radar against what is forecasted t +0 Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5012779
  16. Indeed.. could go to the wire this one. I've seen 50 miles shift on the day when comparing radar against what is forecasted t +0
  17. Any views on the next chase., personally I’m done with chasing Greenland highs since 2010 they just seem to crash and burn as we get closer to the event.. past 48 hours case in point… once the models picked up on the lobes merging it was game over and the collapse has accelerated. I recall something similar Christmas period 2022 and I was berated when I stated that once the vortex set as it did early January it could be curtains… it was… so what’s not to say that with vortex now setting up in its all its glory with cold spilling of the esb to fire up the jet we are could be done again bat a toppler every so often… Time moving on its already _>lighter by 30 mins in the evening and this increase in daylight is accelerating. like a few other I’ll step away now until if we get something decent..as don’t want to be dolly downer poster… toodaloo
  18. Right let's put this 11 days and only one run etc business to bed. The pattern collapse starts with lobe closing of the two lobes of vortex middle next week! around day 5 across all models they are not getting that wrong and if anything it has accelerated it throughout todays modelling! it is going to happen and is the 1st domino the rest that follows is the domino vortex reforming effect... its a long way back from the below chart and already ec46 is pushing anything of interest to February week 2.. tick tock......
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