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Everything posted by TSNWK
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
TSNWK replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
TSNWK replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
@Lukesluckybunch got a chart please? -
Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?
TSNWK replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
To get the vortex into that sort of state I would be looking for something to have underpinned it? MAJOR SSW for example... is there? -
Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?
TSNWK replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Be good to see ecm starting to sniff around this opportunity day 9 and day 10 -
Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?
TSNWK replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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And a fat load of good that is.. as we go mild and zonal for rest of month thanks in no small part to this warming and reverse
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Indeed.. could go to the wire this one. I've seen 50 miles shift on the day when comparing radar against what is forecasted t +0 Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5012779
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Any views on the next chase., personally I’m done with chasing Greenland highs since 2010 they just seem to crash and burn as we get closer to the event.. past 48 hours case in point… once the models picked up on the lobes merging it was game over and the collapse has accelerated. I recall something similar Christmas period 2022 and I was berated when I stated that once the vortex set as it did early January it could be curtains… it was… so what’s not to say that with vortex now setting up in its all its glory with cold spilling of the esb to fire up the jet we are could be done again bat a toppler every so often… Time moving on its already _>lighter by 30 mins in the evening and this increase in daylight is accelerating. like a few other I’ll step away now until if we get something decent..as don’t want to be dolly downer poster… toodaloo
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Right let's put this 11 days and only one run etc business to bed. The pattern collapse starts with lobe closing of the two lobes of vortex middle next week! around day 5 across all models they are not getting that wrong and if anything it has accelerated it throughout todays modelling! it is going to happen and is the 1st domino the rest that follows is the domino vortex reforming effect... its a long way back from the below chart and already ec46 is pushing anything of interest to February week 2.. tick tock......