Tim M
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Still very blustery here in north Midlands, almost 24 hours of strong and blustery winds.
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@Nick123 Likewise!
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@Lisa Martin Also hoping for a quieter night, hate the damage wind can cause! Fingers crossed.
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@Lisa Martin Yes definitely a lot livelier here in Mansfield than Sunday night, and a few hours yet until the peak gusts forecasted by most models.
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Let's hope it stays that way from my point of view just down the road in Mansfield. Gusting 50mph plus here for last 2 hours, around 5mph higher than forecast for this time of the storm. Wonder why Mansfield seems to be one of 'worst' areas away from coasts and hills etc
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Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?
Tim M replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS just out has my area, Mansfield, North Midlands, down for 75mph gusts! To me that is ridiculous for our area. Hope GFS is overdoing it. -
Looking at the recent GFS, it seems to be that east is now worse. Quite concerned as my area, Mansfield in North Midlands / South Yorkshire, now has 75mph gusts! Certainly we havn't had gusts that strong since the 80s I think.
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Storm Eunice - 18th February
Tim M replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Is there still a more than 1% chance of this with all the models seeming to be in so much broad agreement? -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Tim M replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I really hope for this, but can't see any hope. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Tim M replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
That has puzzled me too... is that down to human input after looking at the data perhaps? -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Tim M replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Is it also one of best for forecasting tracks of such storms? -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Tim M replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
To show how everything changes, forecast for my area (North Notts) now says the worst wind gusts for me will be Wednesday night as part of Storm Dudley - forecast gusts upgraded to 60mph by XC Weather (GFS) for example Wednesday night, rather than on Friday, with that model now reducing max gust for me from 75mph on previous run to 48mph . As always with the weather I suppose we just have to wait and see. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Tim M replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Hope this is the right place to ask this question: Why are the predicted wind gusts on the likes of Met Office and BBC websites something like 20/30mph less than XC Weather (GFS I know) for my area, North Notts (as an example) and a lot less than the charts being posted on here. In fact, MO and BBC at the moment are predicting higher wind gusts for Wednesday night for me and the predicted speeds for Friday have slightly reduced on those 2 sites, despite from reading on here the main models suggesting the opposite. I suppose my question is, how are the predicted wind speeds/gusts on websites like MO/BBC arrived at. Thanks for any pointers. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Tim M replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
To my very untrained eye GFS/UKMO/ECM all now seem pretty much same in terms of areas to be worst hit. My area (North Nottinghamshire) pretty scary 40mph sustained winds Friday lunchtime with gusts approaching 80mph. Is there much of a chance ICON could be correct re the track, so taking the worst of the wind/storm much further south? -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Tim M replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Southerly enough to take it away from UK? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part? -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Tim M replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Hope so! Just down the road from you The Pit and XC tonight says 39mph average wind speed for a time on Friday for me - not seen that before for a long, long, long time. Gusts up to 70mph are also more than we have had for many a year. Met Office website has toned the speeds a little from earlier and, of course, I know in weather terms Thursday and Friday are still a long way off. But I have to admit I am already concerned about the back end of this week. -
Based on advice from experienced members on here, I usually add 5-10mph to Met Office max gust predictions and usually focus on XC Weather (GFS) as being more reliable for short-term wind speed predictions or other weather models that members post. I am a total amateur though!! Man With Beard who has just posted is a far better source of reliable advice!
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Snap! Though looking at 60mph in my area.
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model discussion Model output discussion - closing in on Winter
Tim M replied to tight isobar's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
MWB... thanks for this, as a complete novice which group is/are the graphics relating to? - Thank you have seen edit of your graphics, much appreciated! -
model discussion Model output discussion - closing in on Winter
Tim M replied to tight isobar's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Where do we think the worst of the winds will be. My area, north Notts, has veered from max predicted gusts of 50 to now 60plus this morning on latest GFS run. Yet MO say 45mph. Which is more reliable? -
Tuesday to Wednesday Possible Wind storm
Tim M replied to The PIT's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Arpege, XC Weather both showing 60mph plus gusts for us... Met not so strong but aren't they known for underestimating wind speed in storms a little? -
Tuesday to Wednesday Possible Wind storm
Tim M replied to The PIT's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
BBC TV just gone for potentially stormy late Wednesday/Thursday -
out of interest does anyone know or keep a record of how often the NW monthly forecast is accurate, particularly going into the weeks 3 and 4?
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As per the NW monthly forecast then?
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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
Tim M replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Can we start a Chasing Spring thread rather than Chasing Cold ... Not felt warm since mid November here. At least the days are noticeably getting longer.