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Weather Boy

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Everything posted by Weather Boy

  1. Weather Boy
    Summer8906 Good to read a bit of balance. Since when did the GFS determine the synoptic pattern? It's a chocolate teapot beyond c. T192!
  2. Weather Boy
    (Small) point of order. You omitted to call it "the mighty" NAVGEM. Do better.
  3. Weather Boy
    Is the 13 June hoodoo going to be broken today? (Only summer date where the UK has never seen 30°C recorded). Looking close, but on balance, no?
  4. Weather Boy
    I know that it's the model thread, but I don't really see the merit in discussing the likely surface conditions relating to a chart that has close to 0% chance of verifying, given the range of the chart. No offence intended to all those doing so!
  5. Weather Boy
    Agreed, if it didn't the MetO would dismiss it. They haven't (as of yesterday, anyway). However, in the video that you refer to, they gave the GFS prospects as 15%. This seems about right as of yesterday. Maybe less now that it has moved somewhat towards the other models (IMO anyway).
  6. Weather Boy
    If you wanted a certain type of weather (eg warm and sunny) to come about would you rather have GEM on your side and ECM against or vice versa, in order for it to come true? I think most model watchers, speaking generally, would prefer the latter.
  7. Weather Boy
    My grandma lived in Leigh on sea and her porch collapsed (corrugated plastic roof) under the weight of snow in January 1987.
  8. Weather Boy
    Ha ha, -16°C over SE & EA! Bank! Very amusing!
  9. Weather Boy
    That's what the models are currently saying. It doesn't mean it will. Still time for a backtrack.
  10. Weather Boy
    I'm not sure how it's possible for it to be "always correct" when it varies so much from run to run. I'm not suggesting it's alone, but saying it must be wrong sometimes.
  11. Weather Boy
    Obviously that chart won't verify precisely, and furthermore it's a snapshot, but if it did, I'd say you'd have a cold continental flow for all NE of a line from the Solent to South Wales.
  12. Weather Boy
    Do you mean 'mean' as in average, or 'mean' as in evil? Or...both?
  13. Weather Boy
    Good chart, but sorry MWB, are those accumulated totals between now and 14/7? Not that low away from South coast, really...
  14. Weather Boy
    Quite. Today looked like an absolute stinker a week ago. Furthermore - I know this is is model output discussion but- it's interesting to note that apparently neither Meto or BBC are backing the apocalyptic scenario being painted by some on this site. The models are not at one. Professional forecasts suggest that those showing an extremely wet scenario do not represent the form horse. Nobody knows but I suggest that ark building is not yet required.
  15. Weather Boy
    Sadly, you mean accurate!
  16. Weather Boy
    Struck me that snorefest winters have been had before but rarely with such little cold chasing from models that have offered very little hope at all, so far. Even LRFs have proved good. Is this a sign of model improvement, I wonder?
  17. Weather Boy
    That's what they get from a UK or NW Europe High - movement of cold air south from Russia or Eastern Scandinavia. Part and parcel.
  18. Weather Boy
    Interesting run. Generally, my initial reaction would be to laugh and say this will be tomorrow's digital fish wrapper in 12 hours' time. Yet...at under T192 maybe not to be dismissed out of hand. And there have been hints to support it. Let's see whether any other runs support it. If not, then my initial reaction would seem right.
  19. Weather Boy
    *Voiceover*: "As in previous winters, the dice did not fall...."
  20. Weather Boy
    Hello fellow Roystonian. I currently have 36.8C. @Kirkcaldy Weather nominated us as the hotspot. I hate to disappoint that there is now no recognised station here, but I will do my best as a substitute. That might turn out to be our max. Generally, I would expect Cambridge to be slightly warmer than us as it is lower.
  21. Weather Boy
    37.4°C Heathrow, Thursday
  22. Weather Boy
    Sorry, Mike, I'm probably being very dim, but it's just possible I'm not alone in not understanding these charts, but they seem interesting. Would you be kind enough to explain them to the idiots among us? Thanks.
  23. Weather Boy
    Are those images publicly available, please?
  24. Weather Boy
    Since noticed. Never too late for bragging though. Except that someone else picked that figure also.
  25. Weather Boy
    Am I too late? 36.6°C Heathrow. Saturday.
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