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Tyfelin

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    150m ASL, Monmouthshire, South Wales.
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    Hot summers, cold winters, plus anything 'interesting'

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  1. Tyfelin
    I think we should have whip-round to buy Recretos some extra RAM. Spectacular!
  2. Tyfelin
    So here's a little whodunnit to lighten the mood. Below the much quoted chart from the Berlin site, produced on the 28/12 and forecast for 5/1. And here are some perturbations from the GEFS, produced from this mornings (2/1) 0z run and looking forward to the 18/1. - about 2 weeks on from that forecast above. Even in the mean for the run, the vortex looks at least a little contrite. I know, I know, lots of caveats apply to the trop forecast at that range. but could it be the models reacting to the warmings and wave activity...or else who (or what) done it? Berlin site still broken, when I checked earlier btw.
  3. Tyfelin
    So to a very untrained eye, this looks like progress. According to the Berlin site today, by the 30th the warming looks like it's propagated to 30hpa: Consequentially (I'm hoping) zonal wind speeds go from this this: ...to this: As pointed out above, day 10 charts also hint at increased Wave 2 activity. Please put me right if I'm being naive here, tyfelin
  4. Tyfelin
    I've pinned them to the fridge. If I just stare at them long enough... Thanks for the extra help, Recretos. Very much appreciated. Tyfelin
  5. Tyfelin
    That's a great help. Cheers.
  6. Tyfelin
    Hi Lorenzo. I originally posted this question on the start thread, and got to take a few sips from the firehose that is Recretos :-) I'm trying to Interpret the wave 1 and 2 charts as frequently posted by yourself, Matt etc. I know how Fourier analysis works, so I'm good the concept of waves 1, 2, 3. And I can spot the phenomena easily enough on a chart which displays the height of a geopotential surface. But I'm really struggling with this type of chart: https://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_11_2014/post-15767-0-96037400-1415857618.jpg I understand the axes. And I can see that in this view you're looking at the phenomenon happening through a deep layer of atmosphere. But how do I interpret this as a wave? What are the units on the third axis, delineated by the colour scheme? Any help appreciated. Sure I'll get to the heat flux data at some point! Tyfelin
  7. Tyfelin
    Hi Recretos, Thanks for going to that trouble. Those earlier graphics paint a vivid picture of wave 1 and 2. There's lot to pore over there, infant. I can quite easily visualise the wave(s) when represented by the height of a geopotential surface distributed in space. It was specifically the FU Berlin Mean Zonal Wind charts for Wave 1 and 2 that I was perplexed by. What does the shading indicate? What are the units highlighted? Sorry guys. Probably a dumb question. First in a long and illustrious line of such, no doubt. Tyfelin
  8. Tyfelin
    Hi guys. I'm struggling to interpret the Wave 1 and 2 charts as posted by Matt and Recretos. They're charting some function of the wave in space (geopotential surface x latitude), but it can't be simple amplitude, or you wouldn't need the third set of coordinates, represented by the colour. If this is written down someplace, just point me? Tyfelin
  9. Tyfelin
    Folks - just wanted to say hi. I found this thread fascinating last year, but failed to contribute. Hope to put that right this season. I'm intrigued by the sheer scale of the processes wrestled with here, as well as potentially the ability to get some insights into what winter has in store for us. I note we're off to a cracking start, with the Met Office seemingly standing firmly behind its 'warm, wet and windy' prediction, in some contrast to views expressed here. tyfelin
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