Gary Bamford

Summer 2011 was another disappointment for lovers of warm and sunny weather. The summer was the coldest since 1993, and in many parts of the country it was also wet. This was the latest in a run of mediocre or poor summers which started in 2007. Temperature Over the forecast period, temperatures are expected to be close to the Central England Temperature (CET) average. Precipitation Month: September: Fairly average Close to or slightly above average. 1/9 to 7/9 A warm start to the month, especially in southern and eastern regions where temperatures may reach 27C 81(F) for the first couple few days. In the north and west unsettled weather will return and this will push south and east across the rest of the country. Temperatures will fall back to average as the unsettled weather returns. Through the second half of the week it will be unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, especially in the north. 8/9 to 14/9 Remaining rather unsettled through the week, especially in the north and west where heavy showers or longer spells of rain are likely. In these parts temperatures should remain mostly close to the seasonal average. In the south and east it will also be quite unsettled, although there should be some drier and warmer days as high pressure tries to build up from the south. 15/9 to 21/9 Southern parts maybe warmer and drier at times, but the general theme is for unsettled weather with showers or longer spells of rain at times, especially in the north. Possibly becoming windy at times particularly in the north and west. 22/9 to 30/9 Continuing mixed through the last third of the month, and quite autumnal. Showers or longer spells of rain are likely to affect all parts of the country, and it could become very windy at times, especially in the north and west. Temperatures on the low side in the north and west, although possibly warmer at times in the south and east. October October is expected to see a slightly different pattern emerging with high pressure edging closer to the north of the country, keeping rain amounts close to or below normal here, but with pressure still expected to be lower than average further south, rainfall amounts may well be above the seasonal average. Temperatures are currently forecast to be close to or slightly below normal levels.November We're getting some way ahead at this point of the forecast, so forecast does drop away some way..

As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK. The most important factor within our weather forecasting calculations is solar activity and other major natural factors that it influences. Radiant energy from the sun is the primary influence on both the earth's ocean and atmosphere. Low solar activity and ocean behaviour alter atmospheric circulation and block jet stream patterns that create enhanced moisture in terms of snowfall. The UK and Ireland is hit by prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions, as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop. Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air over the UK. Coupled with other in depth factors such as recent volcanic activity and changes to the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic drift that we consider, this does not bode well for the severity of the UK and Northern European winter of 2011-12. Frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy dumps of snow from blizzard like conditions is likely across many parts of the UK. The areas we expect to be worse hit throughout include the vast majority of Scotland and the Scottish Highlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. We have particular concerns as to the huge implications that this may pose to the infrastructure of the UK and Ireland transportation systems/economy.