fendermaestro

Well said Sky Full. I'm currently on my holidays staying in Freshwater East down in Pembrokeshire. I have just spent the day on the beach and when the sun was out is was scorching! Certainly felt hotter than 21 degrees. Might get a little unsettled from Monday for a few days but looking good again tomorrow. After Tuesday l think things will settle down again. Certainly no washout. Good summer once again

Nearly stopped here now thank goodness. Very windy blowing lying powdery snow around. I work in a care home so have NO choice about getting to and from work. I don't care about record breaking blizzards or anything else. The fact that there is currently a red warning in place for my area is very concerning because public transport will grind to a halt later on and roads will become impassible. I hate snow because of the disruption it causes especially for those of us who HAVE to get to work regardless of the weather.

Quite right Slammer but I can't see any great change coming in this area in the short term. My water butt is empty and my garden is very dry. Looking at all forecasts certainly for the Cardiff area, there is very little rain around even with the supposed breakdown in the good weather coming. Yes temps will drop back but even the Meto 7 dayer only gives risks of showers on Sunday and that's at 2pm today going up to Tuesday next week! Roll on Summer 2016!

Hi everyone I have asked this same question for a number of years now so here goes again. I am on holiday in South Pembrokeshire the last week of July and first week of August so this is steadily creeping into the reliable weather forecasting frame. Do any of you, with far more forecasting knowledge than me, want to suggest/predict/say what the chances are of dry sunny weather? The latest extended 30 Met Office forecast says 'a good deal of fine, dry weather looks likely towards the end of the month, particularly across southern parts, where often it may feel quite warm.' By 'southern parts' do they mean South Pembrokeshire? Thanks very much in advance to anyone who wants to give this forecast a go!

I don't post very often but some of you dudes, particularly Weatherguru need to chillax a bit! I am definitely NO expert in things weather but love reading posts from the experts on here in a number of forums and one thing I have learned. The weather in the UK will be and do what the weather will be and do! When the weather does not play ball with what the models are suggesting somehow, some people seem to think or imply that it is the fault of the forecasters or posters which of course is absolute tosh. C'mon, give 'em a break. My preference is for hot sunny weather and I have to say so far this year in my small corner of South Wales it hasn't been bad. OK it has not been excessively hot but there has been loads of dry, sunny and extremely useable weather. According to the extended 30 day Met Office forecast posted today, 'a good deal of fine, dry weather looks likely towards the end of the month, particularly across southern parts, where often it may feel quite warm.' Posters in the model output discussion are hinting at the same thing. If this does not come to fruition, don't shoot the messengers!

Hi guys, I don't post on here very often but I wondered of anyone with much greater weather knowledge than me would be perpared to hazard a guess at to the potential weather forecast for August for Pembrokeshire. The first two weeks I'm on holiday down there and last year the same fortnight was absolutely glorious with me and my family getting about 10 days on the beaches. I've seen conflicting predictions with some 'weather gurus' saying August will be naff with a lot of cool and wet weather about whilst others say that August will be potentially the best of the three summer months although June hasn't been bad so far! i don't understand synoptics and charts very well so I was hoping that some of you would be able to give a bit of guidance as to what the models are saying. Thanks very much.

Vantage Weather Services formerly known as Positive Weather Solutions aka Jonanthan Powell has produced its/his Summer 2014 forecast and here it is: Summer 2014: Some Favourable Passages of Weather. JUNE 2014 June looks likely to offer some decent spells of weather with warm temperatures to match. Whilst projections seem to run close to the average a lot of the time against year on year records, there is, especially across southern and eastern areas, a lean towards drier and warmer than average values. The rest of the country will also experience some fair weather, but probably tempered by the Atlantic, making for quite a changeable regime. That said, even across the more favoured areas, any good run of weather will be broken down by thunderstorm activity. Over all, June looks likely to be on balance, a slightly drier and slightly warmer than average month. JULY 2014 With July 2012 and July 2013 offering some fine and settled weather at times, (especially the latter), it is expected that a similar pattern may well emerge again for 2014, although the duration and temperature properties associated with it remain in question. Of the three summer months, whilst June offers more in the way of chances for fine weather to build-in, July could see a 'sun or bust' scenario, where we may well see one individual settled run of warm to very warm weather, or next to nothing. During the said run of weather, the potential for some extreme temperature values may occur. Over all, July will come in on the average for rainfall, with temperatures on or above average. AUGUST 2014 August, (whilst offering some early summer weather in the month, and again late in the month heading out into September), will be largely changeable with wet and cooler days mixed in with bursts of drier and warmer ones. The VWS system reflects average on rainfall and temperatures which would appear to back-up some short-lived warm phases given the time of year, quickly being replaced following thunderstorm activity by more changeable conditions. It doesn't seem that August will be the case of 'saving the best until last' as June and July may have already seen the best of what was on offer. For August, average to slightly above average rainfall, temperatures on or around the average. VWS Sunday May 18th 2014 Now ladies & gents, DO NOT shoot the messenger! I only post this forecast for what its worth. I know how some of you feel about James Madden, Jonathan Powell and others and I also know that neither of these named gentlemen publish any science or reasoning behind their predictions. Interestingly, Powell forecast a reasonably poor Summer last year and was way out in all three months! Enjoy

I asked the question about 10 days ago about the prospects for this good/excellent weather continuing right through August. I see that the METO 16 - 30 day outlook have today slightly changed their wording from a 'more changeable conditions spreading further south at times into August' to a 'southern areas seem rather more likely on balance to hold onto the fine and settled and sometimes warm weather, although there is an overall increased likelihood that rather more unsettled and cooler conditions may spread southwards at times'. I realise that at some point this hot spell will break down but for those of you on this forum who understand synoptics, weather charts and projections do any of you have any idea of the prospects for Pembrokeshire in particular through August. It seems a fairly good bet that there won't be anything like the amount of rain around that there was last year or indeed the cold temperatures. Thanks for any indications you can give.

I don’t know if the MODS will allow me to post this question here but here goes. As this is the thread where model outputs are discussed I was wondering if those of you with a good knowledge and understanding of charts, projections, oscillations and the like have any idea or want to hazard a guess at how the remainder of summer might pan out from mid July onwards. I have seen on other weather based web sites that indications for August particularly are not looking too good but weather being what it is I know that can change. Thanks guys for any help you can give

Being a forecasting novice but loving the upcoming warm/hot spell, does anyone want to hazard a guess at what the rest of the summer will hold weatherwise from mid-July onwards. I'm thinking particularly of the school summer hols period and my holiday in Pembrokeshire the first two weeks of August. I realise no forecast can be date specific but I was hoping that those of you with good knowledge of synoptics, ocillations and projection charts will have an inkling of how the remainder of summer MIGHT pan out. Thanks guys

Hi All I don't post very often on here 'cos I'm not well versed in following weather charts, synoptics and the like but I really enjoy reading the posts of those who do. Vantage Weather Services (VWS) formerly Positive Weather Solutions have just today released their summer forecast for 2013. VWS of course is Mr Jonathan Powell who I know gets a fair amount of press coverage on here - usually bad. Now, DON'T SHOOT THE MESSENGER, I'm only posting what VWS/Powell are saying for this year so here goes: Vantage Weather ServicesSummer 2013: Some short-lived spells of fine, dry, warm or very warm weather, but over all, not the best of Summers. June 2013 After a chiefly disappointing April and May, the likelihood of a further mixed pattern for the duration of June seems to be the most likeliest scenario. June looks set to be fairly typical of the summer's of late, as it will often be dominated by variability with a largely westerly drift. The wettest and freshest weather being to the north and west, whilst to the south and east, (particularly the far south and south east), the chance of at times more summer-like weather. Indeed, there may well be some pleasant spells of warm to very warm sunshine in these parts, but in general, any warmer phases of weather aren't likely to be sustained. June may well yield average to above average rainfall, with temperatures likely to come in on the average. July 2013 There is the distinct possibility that July will follow on from June as being a poor month with plenty of rain around and disappointing temperatures. To the north and west, generally unsettled once more, with cool and wet weather tending to dominate, with the south and east fairing somewhat better. That said, there is the possibility of fine weather building in during July that will spread widely to other parts for a time, and perhaps it is July where we'll see the best of this year's summer weather. When the sunshine does arrive, expect temperatures to climb nicely particularly across central, southern, and south eastern areas, with 30 plus Celsius possibly being achieved and surpassed. However, thunderstorms will probably bring any heat to an abrupt end. Over all, July will come in on the average to above average for rainfall, with temperatures in the average. August 2013 August could witness a general deterioration in conditions across much of the UK, with parts that were fairing better during previous months also succumbing to poorer weather. Depressions from the Atlantic will starve the UK of any fine weather and for the most part, an unsettled and fluid month looks likely. Again, especially to the south and east, there is the potential for some short-lived warmth, but any heat will most likely end with thunderstorm activity. During August we could well see temperatures in the mid to high 20's Celsius at times, but generally and for the most part, mid to late teen figures. A wetter than average August is expected, with temperatures on or around the average. VWS Sunday May 12th 2013 It would be interesting to see what some of you guys make of this. As I understand it Powell NEVER says how he arrives at his forecasts and won't divulge any information as to how he compiles them. Based on what he says however, he's not far away from what some of you have been saying for this year. I'm sure some of you will want to comment!

Hi Chris, I've just noticed that Vantage Weather have posted their Spring 2013 forecast. Now I know that this is Jonathan Powell's (formerly of Positive Weather Solutions) weather site and I know that a number of the fellahs on here don't like Mr Powell, his forecasting or his forecasting methods but don't shoot the messenger! He is however prepared to have a go at longer range forecasting and based on the previous 2/3 seasons, he's not going for anything spectacular. You can check out his forecast on www.vantageweatherservices.co.uk Cheers

I agree TWS. I only posted my response because this thread is for winter emotions and moaning and when I saw the various forecasts and model projections this morning it cheered me up hence my happy emotion. My intention was not to wind others up because, and I'm only guessing here, everyone who uses and posts on Netweather has a weather preference be it cold or hot, rain or snow etc, etc, etc. I am a complete novice when it comes to the weather but watch it avidly and I'm trying to understand more all the time which is why I spend probably a few hours every week looking at Netweather and loads of the forums to try and continue to learn. If therefore I have caused offence to anyone, I apologise cos it was not my intention. As a heat lover, I will go back into hibernation now until perhaps April when no doubt we can look forward to another great British Summer!

Ah ha TwisterGirl, isn't a huge big snowstorm or a huge big windstorm just as much a threat to homes and/or human life as the wet and windy weather I have been accused of liking? I too am being honest and I think there is far more danger with cold weather than there is with mild. People don't put their heating on because of the cost and simply wrap up warm but this might be heading off towards a political rant about gas and electrcity prices so probably not for this thread!

Oooooh I do seem to have put a cat amongst a few pigeons. I have NO regrets. The Winter Rampers or Snow Lovers are just as selfish and self centered as us warmth and heat lovers. I know it's not what you want to hear in December but there you go. TwisterGirl makes a good point about cold weather killing off bugs but apart from that nothing will change my view. I should point out that just because the weather is mild, it will not necessarily follow that ther will be floods of biblical proportions as some of you seem to think. The Meto are going for 'the signal for rain and snowfall amounts and distribution shows a high degree of uncertainty. On balance, it seems most likely that many areas will receive average amounts of rain' in their 25th Dec - 8th Jan forecast. At the end of the day, it's all a mute point because the weather will of course be what it will be and no amount of 'hopecasting' from me or anyone else will change what is going to happen.

Wooo Hooo! Milder weather on the way. My winter emotion is veeery happy at the moment. My heating bills will stop rocketing, I'll stop freezing my preverbials off waiting for trains and buses and, most important of all, it means the people in the care home I work in won't be put at risk. Some of the cold lovers in here should take a few minutes to think of those us who HAVE to get to work regardless of the weather because the people we are responsible for would not survive without constant care and attention. What would you think or feel if it was your elderly family member in a home where no staff could get in, there was always the risk of pipes freezing and/or heating breaking down. I know that cold lovers have as much control over the weather as us mild/hot lovers - absolutely zilch! Nevertheless I'm really pleased the weather is turning milder. Rant over!

I just posted about my new weather station but I should have also asked what, in some of your humble opinions is the best free weather software for a PC. I have windows 7 and the software that came with my Climemet CM2000 weather station is 'Easyweather'. I have also seen something called 'Cumulus'. I know I can't run both of them at the same time so must choose one of them unless there is something better out there. once my weather station is set up I want to be able to download the data to my PC and set up spreadsheets etc to keep all of the data I collect. Thanks for any help guys

My Missus bought me a Climemet CM2000 weather station for my 50th birthday cos I really want to get into weather data collection and some form of very amateur forecasting. I just wanted to know people's thoughts on this type of station and whether as a starting point, they are any good. Are they reliable and do they provide accurate data if anyone out there has used one before. In short is there anyone who can give me a review. I haven't set it up yet but hope to do so in the next couple of weeks if this incessant rain doesn't drown me when I try! I hope that someone can let me know what they think and also perhaps, what sort of station would be the best if I ever wanted to upgrade in the future. Looking forward to your thoughts

hi Guys, I've been watching the weather over the last couple of months now with some interest and it is amazing to see that April and May (so far) are mirroring 2006 which was the last decent, as in warm and sunny, summer we had here in Wales. April '06 was very wet and in May '06 I went camping on the whitsun bank holiday weekend and was pitching tents on standing water on a slope! When I came home on the monday, the clouds parted and the sun shone for almost 3 months. Any parallels with this year. We may well get the wettest spring on record but I can only say again what I said in my very first post in October last year that the 'Old Timer Farmers' say that mother nature balances herself out and I should know. My missus bought me a weather station for my 50th but because I don't have a wetsuit or flippers, I haven't got out in the garden yet to set it up. Seriously though, any thoughts from anyone on whether this current wet and cool spell will translate from a pretty poor to average spring to a great warm and dry summer?

Thanks Tonyh. Interestingly, we took our family holiday in Pembrokeshire in the middle of August this year. Although there were some cool days, we had some glorious sunny days on the beach when the weather was pants just 100 miles or so further east at home. I realise that because we (the UK that is) are an island, our weather is affected by a number of factors the main three being the Atlantic, the jet stream and the European continent. This makes for an interesting set up and I know from following the charts on Netweather that sometimes, what looks 'nailed on' with regard to a weather pattern changes over 24 hours and we get something very different. I guess that's why following the weather is so much fun - nothing is guaranteed.

Hi Guys. I've just joined Netweather as of about 8.30am this morning. My missus thinks I'm obsessed with the weather and I constantly drive her nuts about forecasts and the like. She calls me Derek after Derek Brockway, a fine upstanding Barry boy like myself. I really need other people with which to share my obsession and to 'guide' me through forecasts and isobars and pressure thicknesses and blocking highs and...... well you get the picture. I have no experience in weather forecasting but I want to learn. By the way, my gut is telling me that this winter won't be as bad as the last two. I think it will be reasonably dry with frosts but in this part of the world i.e. Wales, we will only see snow over the mountains. I have to say however that I really do like warm sunny weather so in 2012, I'll be looking for a heatwave! Interestingly, the 'old farmers' say that we usually have up to five bad summers on the bounce before a good one. 2011 was the fifth one so woo hoo for next year! The old codgers are usually correct based on gut instinct, knowledge of local conditions and general seasonal awareness and they never spend £000's on state of the art forecasting equipment.