jonnybradley

Wednesdays NOAA 500mb anomaly 6-10 day chart support the continued Euro heights, even if it is pushing slightly further south, and an interesting picture up stream. Looking forward to tonight’s charts.

Help me out here guys? How dose this look picture look compare to what the 500mb anomalies are showing for this period, re John's PDF from yesterday? any thoughts

Quick question from noob You guys have been calling this patten change for a while from the 500mb charts, right and these still support the patten but are now a lot closer in time. Just wondering how you read the same charts look forward now. Are they supporting the patten to stick around longer term? Or do these charts become less reliable until things settle down a bit more? I think I saw GP eluding to the fact that longer forecast 500mb still show the pattern sticking. Any thoughts? Thanks

GFS wed 12z t66 GFS having a go at push some of that Siberian high towards the pole. Not really any heights in the high pressure (is that right?) and gets pushed back south into Siberia towards the end of the run. Could the PV be weakening going into the new year? Jon p.s sorry if thats wrong about the heights need to read up on it me thinks!

Thanks chionomaniac, No heights on these, but clearly show the High being pushed back south That is the part of Mr Kelling's analysis I found hard to grasp, with the jet running like it is the Canadian model seemed a bit to eager to push the high through it? (god I hope that made sense:-) But as ever thank you to all for you informative posts, really appreciate. Jon Edit 00:06 just meant to add, will be looking for 'wave pattern repeats', although it fails this time clear to see that it would change the situation in the Atlantic (right?)

Thanks Chio, I thought that might be the case. Thanks for explaining tho, still try to learn

chio, weren't you flat dismissing the 2 high meeting up last week. In fact you had some very harsh words to say about somebody that was looking at this as a possible out come. Are we getting there via a different route or has the picture change enough to allow this train of thought?

What is interesting is the beeb calling this system from Sunday onwards. There forecasters urging caution at this range as you would expect, but unusual for them to highlight a potential feature this far out.

Yep spot on kmanmx. Sorry that last part wasn't meant to be taken to seriously. Saw it on the weather-forecast.com site, there 06 posting. Think they may have been on the GFS ott juice? (not certain they use GFS but I suspect) As you say any snow fall is subject to the path of that low on Friday, which clearly is some way off being know at this point.

Interesting that all the models seemed in agreement about the Thursday/Friday out in low res but are playing out slightly different scenarios now the feature is into high res. Really is overload for a noob here. I keep on seeing people say "due to the complexity" of Fridays system. Could anyone elaborate a bit more on the complex factors involved? Would be nice to try to understand and follow some of these factors building into it. Many thanks Jon p.s I saw a forecast for Chamonix in the Alps today, is curently perdicting over 1m of snow for the 24hr period over Fri - clearly subject to change....

As kold weather said its 72-96 when this storm has been on the charts since t192? For sure I have enjoyed watching how the models have shown this storm, but would be very happy to see it not happen! 1 run is a bit to early to dismiss it me thinks, but I do hope your right

Unless you got a diffrent link dude (please can I have it) there still at 00z. It's the 12z operational that lost the Fri low? They should publish the ensemble in a while. But still fair point 8/52 on the 00z to the 12z operational with a massive downgrade

Thanks Nick, will be checking those out later. Of course if you get the chance your self... have found your analysis of these very helpful over the past couple of weeks

Do the ECM ensembles update at 12z? Anybody got a link for the ECM ensembles, would be intresting to see what they think

Thanks Winters tale, very interesting update from Simon again. Noob warning!! Again guys please correct if I am barking up the wrong tree here. * Think I posted a couple of days ago that it is hard to see past Fridays storm (would this be where FI is at the mo?). I agree with Simon that the models are having a bit of a time sort out the period after Fri. As damianslaw points out, will be hard to pin the placement of Fri low till Tue has blown trough and Fridays is a bit closer to our shores. I think it will be interesting to see how these lows interact with the high in the Atlantic and I assume this will effect the pattern of things to come. * Very interesting times, certainly a lot more going on than when I started watching here back in mid Nov! Thanks All, keep up the good discussions. Jon