Gael_Force

I was musing these patterns..... SSW Canadian warming in November/December is associated with a later winter Scandinavian high. We had a very strong mid March warming which was in focused in that region. Have we been seeing the synoptics of an epic winter, play out in late Spring and early summer?

It is NOT the media suggesting anything. They are reporting on scientific studies with a good dash of hyperbole for headline impact !!

I don't think there is any correlation other than a propensity for more meridional patterns in low geomagnetic periods. It will depend where we are positioned in the wave pattern when it gets stuck. Not sure where we are in the solar cycle but the early upslope is usually when these conditions are most likely.

The first image is multi-model for sea level pressure. As you can see, no detail as is to be expected; better to use heights as a very rough guide. all other parameters here:- Meteociel - Modèles de prévisions saisonnières de 1 à 6 mois de Copernicus C3S WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Meteociel propose les différents modèles de prévisions saisonnières mensuelles de ECMWF, Meteo-France, UKMO, NCEP, DWD, CMC, ECCC et JMA

A master of camouflage in the birch tree twigs !! Buff-tip BUTTERFLY-CONSERVATION.ORG When at rest, the wings are held almost vertically against the body with two buff areas at the front of the thorax and at the tips of the forewings which look very like the pale wood of the birch. The rest of the...

I have in memory a recent SSW that did not downwell at the time but it did have an effect on early Spring. Anybody remember which year that was?

The easiest and quickest way to do that is to remove the like buttons.

Yes, I'm amazed at the reaction to that inaccuracy. Some models with more layers may be better able to create continuity/accuracy through the levels but to claim they are two separately modelled entities is just plain wrong.

Is there such a thing as a displacement split?

Todays snow satellite illustrates your point well. Big beefy snow showers (red tinge) as the arctic parcel comes south.

15 day meteogram for Nottingham, strong signal for northerly wind day 9 to 11.

The only issue I'm aware of is lack of flight data on a day or two over the holidays. Flight data must have been reduced/impacted all through this strange year; has it made a difference to the accuracy statistics?

Did someone mention insular Cannot remember ever seeing such a perfect bullseye of low heights centred on the BI Just realised that the ECM charts are clickable for meteograms. ECMWF | Charts APPS.ECMWF.INT

Meteociel has a whole panel of charts to compare, you just need to click on voir panel multimodeles.

Day 10 http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2020/12/23/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020122300_240.png Day 15 http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2020/12/23/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020122300_360.png Scenarios we would have given our eye teeth for in years past. The strength and longevity of the Greenland heights anomaly.