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Kent Clipper

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Everything posted by Kent Clipper

  1. It looks like the pivot point is way up near Derby. You couldn't make this stuff up.
  2. How good would it be to get an evening dusting out of this that will then last until the morning and then (potentially) gets topped up
  3. Just been looking at that. Timing for this could be good if holds together.
  4. Snow amounts across Kent will depend on how much of a continental low level feed we pull in as the system arrives. The GFS 6z pulls up some briefly less cold uppers after the initial snow event turning things back to rain for a while before the cold undercut from the west as part of the system pulls away. Fortunately it looks as if most precipitation is in association with the leading edge (lasting 2 or 3 hours) before a brief less cold blip (with hopefully little or no precipitation in the afternoon. By evening we could well see further light falls from the wrap around before a very cold and icy night. Its very exciting.
  5. I still remember the no. 0898 500 402 !!! ( how sad am i lol) I became quite addicted to calling it, especially in the winter of 95/96 when there were countless snow opportunities in the pipeline
  6. Got quite lucky here (over local high ground) considering we are so far south with just over 2cm. The first upper warm front intensified as it crossed over while we were just about still in the cold air. Its rapidly melting now but it was fun while it lasted and the kids enjoyed a snowball fight.
  7. Snowing in Folkestone. The DP is edging up though. Currently -0.6c (it was -1.1c at 6am). Nice to see it falling near sea level on the south coast (even if it is briefly).
  8. 4.7 / 4.5 down from 5.6/5.4 at 8am. For low level Kent to get something semi decent out of this we need to draw in a continental ESE'ly undercut, rather than a boundary level warming ENE'ly off that pesky soupy North Sea. An interesting day ahead.
  9. Its made landfall at Sandwich. t2m's around Deal and Kingsdown are still around 0 32f, dewpoints around -1c (30f).
  10. Sleety precipitation moving in but its very light and the car is still partially frozen (but starting the thaw a little). Heavier stuff moving into Deal soon. The upper air is starting to stir a little now. Hoping that the heavier radar returns swing this one in our favour. Could be a surprise little event for SE Kent. 0.5 / 0.0
  11. Upper air parameters are virtually identical to the Kent rainfest we experienced earlier in the week. The difference this time is we have very light breezes (less than 7mph) between the boundary layer and 850Pa that is preventing mixing through the layers. After 9pm we pick up to a 11-13 mph ENE'ly between 950-850, which increases the risk of mixing out and the likelihood of more rain in the mix. A fascinating couple of hours ahead. The radar looks tantalising !
  12. Light rain showers here in Folkestone. 4.2c following a low of 3.0c. 3.4mm rainfall so far today in a light NE'ly.
  13. We had a light shower in Folkestone at around 3.15pm. The was a brief heavier burst containing sleet. The airmass is now cooling and there are some interesting radar returns running along the south coast heading this way. I wonder if we could get some wet snow out of this ?
  14. 2.9c with a dewpoint of 1.7c in flat calm conditions. Just felt a couple of very fine drops of rain. The cloud appears to be retreating southwards now though with a distinct clear line towards the north. Game over for this one.
  15. This is the 500Hpa convective snow chart the Kent Crew have been waiting to see. A kink in the ENE flow on the NW convective quadrant of a deeper more discreet cold pool over NE France. Its getting into the semi reliable now, 120 hours. Finally after what feels like weeks of waiting we can finally start pinning the tail on the donkey here in the snow starved SE.
  16. GFS 144 (850's)...We need to shave 3 degrees off to take advantage of this.
  17. We have been bitten so many times and rightly we are still slightly cautious, the atmosphere is electric though. We are poised with champagne bottles in hand and fingers on the cork. If we are heading into easterly territory most of us would like just a couple of degrees shaved off those uppers before we pop that cork and get the party started. FWIW a similar thing happened in the lead up to the late November 2010 event. For a number of days -7's were consistently being progged. A few runs started to drop in the odd pool of -10c in the North Sea, it grew and the rest is history.
  18. Another long day of model watching ahead. I really need to get out and distract myself with something else for a while. This weeks slack self generating cold pool continues to excite with a host of marginal possibilities providing all sorts of wintry opportunities. What isn't being spoke about too much is the likelihood of some very low minima and freezing fog. Always a nice measure of winter cold. Last night a surprise hail shower thanks to this set up provided me with a nice covering of white at 1am. The new year easterly is gaining momentum and this is great but we really do need a fresh injection of arctic air if we are going to set the North Sea Snow shower convection machine into operation, and by this I mean 850's of -9 or colder. We are not far off and only small downward adjustments will get us there. Next weeks eastern based wintry showers as things stand are not going to cut the mustard after this weeks marginal possibilities. Snow lovers will be demanding more ! Indeed next week could even become a little less cold due to the maritime mixing from the North Sea. (one to be aware of). Further south we look to the NE for cold upper air generated snow showers but we are also looking towards the SW for an attack that could provide a significant snow event and in this set up 850's of -1c or less are required if we draw in a direct continental ESE'ly feed. The risk with this is less cold southerly air pushing in ( a la demise of the 2018 BFTE). Lots of excitement and up to 168-192 all is good. ! Personally I would like to see this cold pool stagnate for a few days longer, get in a NE'ly, dig a trough into Scandi, retrogress the mid atlantic high to Iceland and let mother nature do the rest. Not too much to ask for is it !
  19. The big danger with any decent weather event (be it heatwaves or cold spells) is all too often we focus in fantasy land for breakdowns at 192 hours thus missing out what is starting to unfold under our very noses. #liveinthemoment
  20. Its as you were. The cold spell is arriving here in the far SE as Storm Bella takes her stormy winds with her. A drop from 9.1c to 7.8c in the past hour...anyway back to the all important models. KInks indicative of troughs are already starting to show up this morning that will no doubt keep the atmosphere electric in here for a good few days ! We will learn a lot about how the atmosphere behaves in the next few days. A slack, low pressure dominated self generated mid winter UK cold pool. Its the stuff of dreams. GFS 48 - discreet secondary feature in the flow GFS 72 - Kink (trough) Close to the borders GFS 96 hours - Some sort of trough feature clearing the south coast. GFS 117 hours - Something in the channel and something edging into Scotland.
  21. After 10 days locked in the preceding pattern the UK will become an almost inpenetrable cold block. Big snow event on this chart. By this stage all the talk and worry about 850's will be a distant memory.
  22. The 12Z EC Ens for Reading are trending ever colder. The median T2max now struggling around 2 to 3c on most days with sub zero minima on many nights. We are in an unusual an exciting position. This is a slow and steady burner. The old weather lore saying 'short notice, soon pass. Long notice, long pass' feels very apt at present. ECMWF Forecasts WWW.ECMWF.INT The 15 day wind vector plots are even more tantalising with a defintive and favoured N or NE flow @ days 7-13. ECMWF Forecasts WWW.ECMWF.INT
  23. ECM 240 - Easterly across England and Wales with harsh frosts in sheltered parts of Scotland. Wintry showers would be the order of the day. At this stage we would want some sort of retrogression to Greenland to allow for a fresh supply of arctic air to give us a top up and lower those 850's.
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