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gaia rules

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    I built my own self recording rain gauge out of an alarm clock biscuit tin and ping pong ball aged 11 yrs! It worked! I have been a member of the Royal Meteorological Society since 1974 (aged 13) and elected a fellow in 1985 for my work in health and the weather. I am a GP but worked full time in the Met Office between 1999 and 2005 to set up the health forecasting unit which now delivers Heat health, COPD and cold weather forecasts. I used to sit in main operations room in Bracknell then Exeter delivering health forecasts to the NHS.
    I have a good knowledge of meteorology but not too technical and get lost in some of the thermodynamics! I do know a lot about how it affects health though.
    I am still a half time GP and run a company called Intelligent Health that gets people more active outdoors. I am advising Shanghai about the their health forecasting service since the Met Office is not allowed to!
    I am still as passionate about the weather as I was when I got the first chart from my rain gauge!
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    Sub 961 depression anywhere nearby

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  1. Good bit of eye candy ...to watch that polar high develop ...pull south into russia, build and build and then be squeezed by the atlantic juggernaut (remove the labels press animation rotate to polar view and sit back and enjoy!) https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_3d.php?lat=80.25&lon=79&ech=3&zoom=6&mode=1
  2. Both ECMWF and GFS have struggled to forecast the low on Thursday. GFS blew it up as we expected by ECMWF doesnt cover itself with Glory either and still 3 days to go. Here are the last few runs on both to compare.
  3. UKMO HD brings that second low further north so although in FI still worth watching seeing to see if this gathers traction
  4. Hi Tilly yes you are absolutely right and I was being a bit gung ho with this weekend's cold looking to become fairly established in the GFS 18Z last night! We just need the cold snap to be short lived (which is a stronger possibility with todays runs as the Iceland high has receded south a tad ) and continuous SW flow in December to push get that 2.04 required.
  5. "The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 11.15, which is 1.68 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 2.04 for the remainder of this year." No chance now! CET is sliding down and down
  6. I think ECMWF is leading its younger brother GFS astray. Next few runs will soon sort this out.
  7. You can see the difference between the 12Z GFS and 18Z GFS digging in much colder air behind low 2 with ECMWF keeping south in the cold for longer but less cold air behind shallower low
  8. Your OK in teh welsh valleys The models have finally got to grips with the major snowfall between France and Inverness sometime in the next 10 days.
  9. The humidity therefore night temperatures will be important in predicting impact on health. I set up the Heat Health warnings when I worked as health lead at the Met Office after the 2003 European Heat wave and it was the night-time temperatures that mattered more. In France those living above the high floors of tower blocks who died as temperatures cooled from the ground up. The higher humidity meant that there were high min temps. So far the predicted humidity next weekend is very low so although the temperatures are frighteningly high if the humidity stays low and there are no more than 2 nights in a row with minima of 22 then it may not be so catastrophic on health.
  10. wow that's a central pressure of 912mb if this ever happens but at 210hrs its well into FI
  11. If ECM is on the right track for Sunday then the storm surge team at Met Office will be waking up as that low crosses east coast bang on a spring tide
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