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mpkio2

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Everything posted by mpkio2

  1. Looks good, but too much scatter to say with confidence that it would entail colder weather for the UK or not......
  2. Hey all to all my fellow SouthEasterners Well, as promised, I got up early and walked to my local park in Central London (Regents Park) and my god it was like walking in a winter wonderland! I think we easily got 5 - 10cm here, which is very impressive! Looks as though some places got more or less depending on where you live in the SE. Anyway, here are a few pics and video of me walking in Regents Park in Central London! MOV_1575.mp4
  3. I must say, its not ever winter where the SE corner gets snow before some part up north! Usually the north get snow first and then we last! Nice for a change, eh? Also, still snowing moderate in Central London! Sadly, I'm not outside to enjoy the falling snow, but you can bet on your rear-end that I will be out first thing in the morning to my local part to enjoy the snow, take some pics with a nice hot chocolate in ahnd! Awesome!
  4. Been snowing here in Central London since 7pm. Has been coming down moderate and quite heavy at times! Best snowfall since Feb 2018. This reminds me of the Dec 2017 snowfall MOV_1531.mp4
  5. I wouldn't say thats a change of the "big picture" however. I am using the phase "big picture" as meaning the "overall" theme of a cold pattern. And I think this is where the despcrancy is coming from. Has the synoptics of "how" the cold occurs and the pattenr changed from model to model run and have models changed from where the cold comes from? Of course, I am not disagreeing with that notion. That was never my arguemnt. My arguemnt is that "the big picture" is still showing a cold pattern. Does the model show a cold pattern in frame I show down below? If you can answer with "yes", then that is my arguemnt and I will leave it at that.
  6. You are missing my point. I'm not talking about the synoptics of snow. You started your arguement that "the big picture has changed". I refutaed your arguemnt and said the big picture has not changed as the models are still showing a cold pattern. Here is the meaning of the phase "big picture" from Dictionary.com: "big picture See synonyms for big picture on Thesaurus.com noun a broad, overall view or perspective of an issue or problem." The "overall view" is still the same; a cold pattern.
  7. Its still a detail though. "Big picture" still shows cold in the models as it has done for the past few days now. Small details in variation from model to model run has changed, yes of course. But not the overall cold picture in the models.
  8. But thats not the "big picture". Thats "small details". The "big picture" in the models is still the same.......a cold patern.
  9. The irony is is that last year the NAO had months of negativity during the later summer and autumn months and then flipped positive as we hit Winter. I thought "Well, nature will have to balance that out...." and believed the NAO would stay positive. Low and behold, my guess/theory was correct. I believe we won't get a cold spell (Pro-longed cold spell with snow and ice) until late February/March at the earliest. Don't mean to be pessimistic, but that's just where my thinking is. Kudos to those who are always observing and putting their necks out on predictions!
  10. I agree! Its been proven that very strong -QBO through Winter months causes mild weather for UK winters, which is what we are experiencing thus far.
  11. A very negative eQBO can lead to more mild weather during Winter for UK, as GavWeatherVid's demonstrated in his Winter Update videos on YouTube. I think the QBO has over ridden any other background factors.
  12. This December has been one of the mildest and boring since December 2015! I'm usually very optimistic, but I just can't see an end to this onslaught of vile, mild, dross. I'm gonna make a bet that we will have a "cold" Spring, but that just equals to 12c and rain. Thanks Weather Gods, but no thanks!
  13. Does anyone have links for 2021's achieved SST Anomaly images?
  14. Yay! A perfect setup pattern for cold weather! We got our wish cold lovers! Late and in April!!!!!! Gah!!!, its like someone you invited to a party and they don't show up til the party is ending and then they show up ready and then you think "You might as well go! You missed it!" Like......ugh what a waste!! I would rather it didn't show up and we just had a pro-longed warm spell now. Thanks weather gods, but no thanks!!
  15. I have to agree. I don't wanna be pessimistic but I hate when the models show these kinds of setups that are perfect for one part of the year and materialize at the wrong time of the year instead. Like this setup is perfect for the winter (Looking at sub-below temps and ice and snow), but we get it now in April? I just can't help but feel bittersweet. Like got the right pattern, but its all way too late. I would rather the models show a long pro-longed warm pattern now
  16. One of the best snowfalls I have ever expereinced in my life!!!!! 6inches of snow in Central London, which was very unusal!! 28th Febuary 2018 almost beats it though
  17. To be honest, I rate the HARMONI model quite highly. A few years ago during a rain to snow event (Think it might have been 2017/2018 for the 10th Dec 2017 snow fall), many models were flopping around if it would snow in the south (London) area, but HARMONIE ranted and raving saying "Yes it will snow in London!" Guess what? It was right!! But of course, it could easily be wrong this time around.
  18. I'm not really knowledgeable in this respect, but, due to the low ice extent that we've been seeing, what this have side effects on the upcoming winter and encourage HLB in the hight latitdudes over the pole? I'm a strong believer that this happened in 2012, on our all time record breaking low ice extent, which is why we had a cold winter 2012/2013.
  19. A very good illustration to point out that slow snow growth in September does not equal a cold winter. If anything, the past Septembers where we've had great snow and ice growth in September has turned out to be mild winters here in the UK, 2015/2016 winters to name a few. October is the important month.
  20. Not a single falke here in London, but thats not surprising.
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