Dave Clarke

No, just a public one https://microsferics.com/index.php

A few +Ve strikes tonight

Some strong gusts and the occasional large drop of rain here in Beckton, E London

It's severe due to possibly high rainfall rates

Estofex has parts of se/cs under a lvl1 for excessive rainfall European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

New electrified cell to the west of Hereford

Looks like Friday is the best day for London snow lovers

Look on the 3rd page of this pdf file to show the classic life cycle of a Bjerknes type low http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~jnorris/weather_disc/bjerknes.pdf

The strongest gusts are where the low tightens up on it's sw edge, this is only in the extreme SW UK so far and is tracking ENE.

Low has recently passed over Scilly Isles http://scontent-a-lhr.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc3/1377371_10152594802631494_1359656613_n.jpg

The cloud here in E London was harder to shift with temps hovering around 11ºc until about 3pm when they climbed to approx 14ºc. Quite a way short of the forecasted 17ºc.

The MCS is still clinging on with about 95 sflocs in 5 mins, it's at the northern French coast now, getting ready to dip it's toes in the Channel, just hope the lot from UK Border Force don't turn it back

Anaprop ahead of the MCS

Next update, you lot didn't wish hard enough, the MCS is nodding off

See my modified post attachment, and 5min sfloc hit. Rain will graze, but there'll probably be 1 or 2 sferics at best

MCS in northern France dying off now folks, sferic intensity tailing off. Add +1hr for BST

links?

Paul Blight got it right this morning, as posted on our front end http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk

It's all about forcing mechanisms, being in place at the right time with precipitable water, temperature, cold air aloft, and no dry cap for the moisture to convect up into. The models had trouble with a trough from the Canary Islands which brought the storms to the SW this morning, and they're having trouble with timing the other ingredients of thunderstorms. It will rain in the SE tonight fact, whether it reaches the surface much is down to how high up the clouds are, and atm they're forecast likely to be high. The forecasts are as right as you're all going to get, as *actual* weather doesn't follow models, the models play serious catchup on later runs re-modelling up to the point of current weather.

Hot from the fingers of Brendan Jones on UKww

18z UKMO Meso (NAE) breaks out convective precip 00z through to 12z in the SE Quadrant, London, Home counties, maybe as far west as Berks, and everywhere south and east, as well as E Anglia.

Latest visible satrep from 15z showed it's position and forecast location at 00z

Yes, and the PWAT is still there, it's the forcing which we're waiting for, which will be the initiating factor, and the yellow watch areas still stand. There is still a reasonable chance of convective activity between (imagine a triangle) IOW, SE Kent and the Wash.

The UKMO only had a yellow advisory out for the SE, no actual warnings were issued.

The cell over Northern France this afternoon/evening was a Supercell according to Keraunos (you'll need to know French)