There's a storm a coming

Yep! The next few frames were very interesting....cold uppers flooding west towards the uk. Let's wait until the ensembles and see where this run sits. Let's just hope it's not the start of the high being forecast more into Europe like a few weeks back. Tasac

What does seem to stand out with the models is that what ever happens in the short to mid term with block orientation/low sliding etc we still seem to end up with some form of easterly by the 10th....just not sure how cold it will be Tasac

As Steve M said we may need at least 2 cycles to get the real cold here and by the looks of the ecm he could be spot on Tasac

At 168'hrs the ecm has the Scandinavian high just gobbling up the Azores high!... Tasac

I Agree! But where is this run going? The next few frames could be interesting! Tasac

Is the ecm following the UKMO with the high slowly slipping southwards into Europe? We need the low pressure to slide under pretty quickly to hold its " saggy bottom up" and push them cold uppers westwards and not northwards Tasac

And as been discussed on here plenty...that will lead to the UKMO outlook of mostly dry weather moving in and any fronts decaying in the west...it will also turn colder as winds swing round to the south east. I must admit tho. That is a mighty big block on the 144hr ukmo Tasac

Looks a corker at least a 3 day cold spell longer if the high can merge with the Russian one Tasac

ECM 192hrs looks good and heights trying to push towards Greenland Tasac

Unfortunately GFS can't handle it! The last couple of days GFS had been churning out great FI but today seems to have gone downhill with the dreaded Azores high just not leaving us alone Tasac

So the UKMO follows its morning run with lows passing over the north of Scotland and then diving into Europe and the Azores high still close by to the sw...good for the northwest as this will bring cold air and snow showers. GFS seems to be following the script also up to 144hrs Tasac

So if I read that right they are happy with the pattern across most of the usa apart from the southeast corner where there is a mod to high spread...typical that that's the bit we're interested in. looks like the GFS 18 has moved a little closer to the UKMO and ECM although it's still a bit quicker Tasac

Thanks nick for your reply and thoughts, I'm sure the GFS will start backtracking most probably starting with the 18z. As it all starts on the southeast coast of USA is there any news from them on what model they prefer Tasac

Looks a good guess for what the 168hrs shows but more importantly what do people think the next step would be? Tasac

After my last comment I thought I would just hang on and see what the 192 showed...glad I did as next low is diving southeast...but I can't believe what I'm seeing a low pressure developing in the western med! ... Tasac