Moomin71

Don't be so sure Beanz, I will have swapped my Defender for a Tesla (not my choice work told me to!) by mid September. Last time I didn't have a Defender/Utility Land Rover was between 2009 and 2011...... Not chart analysis or statistics but just saying

Yes it does worry me, we should be OK as I am in a good job etc but we are still already paying more than double that we were paying last year, whilst we can take that hit there are many who cant and it will mean we wont spend the money on extra stuff or simple things like going to Aldi rather than the farm shop. its these impacts that just is not being discussed in the press as well as the impact on SMEs Of these very high energy costs, unless whoever the new PM is actually gets hold of this and does something very significant then I do worry for all of us what impact it will have on the economy and society, i am usually a very positive person but at the moment the prospects for this winter are looking pretty grim.

This is a beautiful song, Eva Cassidy's version is quite astonishing.

Mambo No 5 reminds me of this transition. Must have been September 98 or 99 a group of us from Uni met up at a mates house in Bristol for a weekend of revelry and it was a glorious weekend, warn sunny and still, bit too still for the kite festival at Clifton Park they had to drag the big kites around the arena by landrover to get them airborne. Mambo No5 was played a lot in the clubs we went to, weather started to turn properly autumnal after that. A great weekend and happy times. Daft song but always raises a smile!

Yay its back, just need the Daily Express headlines of Snowmageddon and we're fully up for the winter!

Yes just had 15 mins of lightning rumbling and hail just south of Oswestry, looks as though the storm stretches over to Shrewsbury.

I think the hard working rescue teams might be having a joke?? Does beg the question how you could start a volcanic eruption, best i can think of would require something like a drilling rig advancing a borehole at just the right location into the underlying magma and having a drill crew who are fit enough to run really fast once they've started it , obviously the drill rig would be lost. Or a really big bomb perhaps in just the right spot.

Apparently claustrophobia isn't too much of an issue but the water is so incredibly clear its not uncommon for divers to suffer from vertigo! M

Quite right Lorenzo. That photo is pretty impressive, it must be one hell of a feather under that ice to result in a surface expression of that magnitude! Picking up on Rustynailers point, there will be some melt although where that's going at the moment is a bit of a mystery unless it isn't erupting yet and that depression is as the official web sites are suggesting is just the result of rifting. If it is erupting under there it will be melting but could be getting trapped, a bit like a dam, this will give way at some point with a huge outburst flood. Grimsvotn did this in 1994 if I remember correctly and took out a number of bridges and sections of the main ring road. M

No it will take a while unless it gets very explosive, the ice and meltwater will cool the surface of the lava which sort of insulates it, that's why Grimsvotn and Bardabunga are almost completely entombed in ice, they've erupted most of the time sub glacially. A good indicator as to what these volcanos probably look like is Herdubreid, this was similar to Grimsvotn, etc in that it was formed beneath an ice cap. This graben development is getting very interesting, things could get considerably more active, this looks to me like it has the potential to become a rift fissure eruption, which if it happens partly beneath the ice will prove explosive and long lasting. M

I think Rustynailer probably summed it up, it is most likely due to lower resistance either the fissures are more open now or, as the dramatic photos suggest the surface cracking is leading to a reduction in pressure. If it was a reduction in the volume of magma I think we'd see a much bigger drop in the number of earthquakes, whereas the frequency doesn't seem to have reduced that much just the magnitude. It can't be long now before it erupts, just have to see if it will interact with Askja or not and if the central volcano will play a part or not. Very impressive photos, sort of stuff nightmares are made of, reminds me of that film from the 1950 I think where the earth was going to be split in two unless some mad geologist launched a nuclear missile down a mine shaft, bonkers film very enjoyable though, lots of scary cracks appearing and disasters happening, anyway somewhat off topic there. Will have to see how things are in the morning. M

I was wondering that myself but I can't tell if it is more water or if its just the sunlight reflecting off the water. M

Blimey, take your eyes off it overnight and it goes mad! Some big events all over the area this morning and now well intersecting Askja. Yesterday it looked to me like the dyke may track to the east of Askja, clearly its just gone straight for it. Things could start to get very interesting looking at the discussions presented in the links posted throughout this discussion. Especially if it reactivates the magma beneath Askja.

I think the 4.6 in the dyke and the 3.3 at 30km could be another pulse of magma coming in from depth. That idea will be better supported if there are any more of that magnitude anywhere in the dyke and any further ones at depth. If I'm right it may also be indicating the magma is going straight for the dyke and bypassing Bardabunga. The link John Pike posted has some good information, interesting to see the dyke is now 10km north of the ice cap, although the depth of the activity is not pointing to eruption yet if it does happen it seems more than likely it will be at least in part in the open, watch for an increase in very shallow activity.

Yes quite right Snow, it would be interesting to see if there's any settlement data or gravity data from Bardabunga to see if it backs that up, the link below shows some GPS data http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/bardarbunga-nature-of-the-beast/ But its not from Bardabunga specifically and a few days old now. Activity does seem to be tailing off but just spotted that there was a 3.3 at 30km depth about 12:30, could this be a fresh pulse of magma?? M

Not quite, it contains a number of volcanic systems which in most instances work as separate entities, but have the potential to link during more extensive eruptive cycles as seems to be the indication with Bardabunga at the moment. However, there are a number of peaks that have now moved well away from the rifting zone and are unlikely to erupt again, thus we would not have the whole of Iceland erupting as a single giant eruption that would lead to a tsunami. The only conceivable way in which a tsunami might be generated from an eruption is if we had a cataclysmic eruption from Surtsey or the Vesteman Islands or caldera collapse at these locations, both of which are unlikely at present as they have not formed calderas and are not characterised by explosive eruptions. I don't know of any other volcanoes that drop directly into the Atlantic on Iceland. (EDIT: That'll teach me to reply without refreshing the screen properly, Buried under snow has hit the nail on the head with his reply earlier this morning). M

Allseasons, even if this volcano has a cataclysmic eruption as Krakatoa did it will not generate tsunamis. It is too far from the coast whereas Krakatoa was a very small island and surrounded by enormous volumes of sea water which was able to contact the magma immediately after the eruption. There is obviously plenty of water around Bardabunga in ice form, however this will potentially cause a much more explosive eruption and generate lahars and its distance from the coast means it cannot interact with the sea in a manner which would give rise to tsunamis. m

It seems to me that it could mean both just to give an awkward answer. Its a while since I studied volcanology, groundwater is my specialist field in geology but having read the excellent article Allseasons-si gave the link to its coming back. At the moment it seems that the M2.0s are indicative of magma moving, it is the direction of movement that is most interesting at present. It seems the thought is that the link could be made with the Askia system and in essence the longer the M2.0s go on without any eruption the larger the eruption might be. The M4 - 5 tremors are also interesting as they are indicative of caldera subsidence within the Bardabunga volcano. Its all very interesting stuff at the moment. I abandoned a trip with the land rover to this part of Iceland a few years ago, this area having long fascinated me, shame I didn't make it as much of it may be about to change over the next few months! M

I fired that reply off very quickly and didn't quite say what I was trying to say! it is quite probably monsoon for India with apparently very permeable aquifers looking at the response. I was thinking more in terms of the Australian changes, I didn't think there was a huge amount of abstraction in the outback. Interestingly, and in response to Mike's point, it isn't just over abstraction that is having a negative effect on the UK's aquifers, theres a growing problem of reduced infiltration rates as a result of urbanisation, tarmac and hardstanding coupled with efficient drainage systems is diverting rainfall straight into surface water systems bypassing groundwater. It seems this is most pronounced in the SE of the UK which makes it even worse due to that area's dependence on groundwater. I do believe that water will become globally as valuable as oil, if not more valuable and as with energy it comes down to learning to use it more efficiently as well as developing alternative ways of obtaining it. Moomin

Brilliant stuff this Knocker, as a Hydrogeologist I find the GRACE imagery very exciting and the variations in India especially very interesting. It would be interesting to understand how much is climatic induced variation and how much is anthropogenic. M

Noticed it working on the car last week, couldn't understand why I couldn't see what I was doing properly underneath the car when it was only 9pm, then realised sun had dipped below the hills behind us. Still must only be a few weeks now before the snow and ice in the N hemisphere post is resurrected by Chiono! M

Ah proper blizzard and proper locomotives too! Sorry wat off topic but couldn't resist. I am always interested to see how accurate the models are with teh finer details in tghe short term so I will be watching to see exactly what happens tonight with respect to how quickly things turn to rain. I am suprised at how slowly the milder temperatures are coming through. It was -7 here on the welsh borders last night and I do wonder how much scope there is for keeping this as a snow only event.

I can confirm t has been snowing all day on Welsh borders, slight covering of snow, there was a heavy dusting first thing this morning which has melted back but not gone. Just to pick up on Paul 33's point, I commented a few days ago that the models seemed to be starting to do what they did in Dec 2010 when they were constantly predicting milder breakdown but that kepy getting pushed back. To my mind the same thing is happening again, its just that the blocking isn't as strong and we're not getting the same deep cold at the moment. I would not be suprised to see that milder breakdown during next week get pushed back further agian. M

I can certainly see how the surface cold if it gets embedded could prove difficult for the Atlantic systems to overcome particularly with the disruption to th PV. Whilst I don't want to compare to dec 2010 at this stage I seem to remember the models continually predicted a westerly breakdown which just kept getting pushed further and further back. I may be wrong but it seems to me that this could be happening again, The models earlier in the week were suggesting a milder breakdown that was predicted to happen on Tuesday which has been pushed further and further back. I do get the feeling the models are out of their comfort zone with these synoptics M

Even if contamination of groundwater does occur it can be remediated, even at depth or 'fixed' in position through clever use of groundwater extraction or injection wells. However, what tends to happen is that deep groundwater aquifers are low quality anyway due to the length of time water has had in there to dissolve minerals in the host rock.