fUnKy

Return periods can be less useful than annual excedence probability.. we get this all the time with clients. 1 in 100 has a probability of 1%, 1 in 20 5% etc. of occurring in any year.

[Not considering the wider long term picture...] you have go to love our weather.. so changeable, one week really warm and feels like Southern Europe and roll on a week or two and you get a day that feels so autumnal that you have to come on netweather and see if anyone has their heating on yet and what the northern hemisphere snow coverage is looking like.

Love this thread.. I hate the fact I only check netweather September on.. rubbish member

June has good memories including plenty of sea swimming action.. the last month not so great but cannot complain.

Relationship between waves and wind is not linear; there are two types of wave fetch limited and non fetch limited, so basically wind is a function of how long that wind has been able to act on the water.. generally waves are considered in a spectrum and certain Mount of variability within that spectrum..fairly easy to hind cast to find typical significant wave heights from wind with some limited information. Erosion has short term and long term effects.. more storms equals storm response to beach and if beach is already compromised the hinterland such as cliff faces.. but good to remember that the land is always moving and what is taken from one place often ends up somewhere else.. longshore transport. Wind data.. hmmm... certainly getting more stormy.. perhaps some data in freely available Pitt report from a few years back. Data quite easy to get hold of but may not be processed. Not sure to mind. On phone otherwise I'd try to be more detailed (I'm coastal engineer).

Thanks guys interesting winter ahead..

Enjoy it folks in the north, some nice pics on Twitter as far south as Midlands.. some sleet in north bucks but at least I'll get to use some Woolly jumpers.

Forecasts are educated guesses.. there are so many Individual, strong drivers present for different scenarios that this winter must be especially difficult to forecast this far in advance. That said, we have a temperate climate and generally do not experience massive extremes so as default that would be where my money is... Average

Just ordered some new slippers.. flip flops not cutting it.

Snowing in bucks. Dusting already

North bucks, doesn't look like anything fell over night.

Thanks, this is the first one I've had the pleasure of taking notice of.

Yeah, I'm not dumb, but I concede my question should have been more specific like "could this head anywhere but back where it came from or perpendicular from its current track"

Thanks.. we'll see I suppose. Home counties will probably miss.

Could this head litterally anywhere?

It's been an ok winter so far In my region in the home counties. Plusses. So many gorgeous cold mornings and a few flakes. Negatives.. no lying snow or proper snow events. Still hopefull but a little disappointed so far considering some decent signals before hand. If only the world would spin the other way.

Model watching last few days..It's a bit like looking forward to your wedding day and then your bride doesn't turn up.. I've enjoyed the little snow that's fallen from the sky but need this to be the start of the event and not the event for it to be enjoyable on the ground. But weather is a fickle thing.

Still a few flakes here in north bucks.. I suppose you'd call it a very light dusting. Temp 1c after over night min of -2.2c. Looks to brightening from the west. Welcome but not really an event.

Have to say it's a bit disappointing that a spell that promised something seems like it will deliver very little if it all.

Yeah, I'm thinking get in the car and see what happens but leave at 6am and BBC weather has forecast snow all night there. Heavy at times. In two minds.

What's the chances of driving from bucks to the Ridgeway. Near Swindon tomorrow? 67 mile commute.

Happy New year you clever folk. Come on blocking..

merry Christmas all. I don't post in here as they would just get moved with my level of knowledge but just want to say love reading the exchanges on the models so all have a great one and look forward to learning more from you all next year.

8.. Not up to letting it dictate where I live but have driven milesaway, up a hill (dartmoor, ivinghoe beacon) in the middle of the night to stand in it falling. Love it.

One day would be fine then. If you get it where you are I'll get a snow day. Live in bucks, work in wilts