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Ben Sainsbury

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Ben Sainsbury last won the day on September 8 2023

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About Ben Sainsbury

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    Male
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    Bristol
  • Interests
    Weather and Only Weather!
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms and Snowstorms

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  1. Ben Sainsbury
    NOAA Seasonal Forecasts updated today and this is what you'd like to see as a storm chaser going into May.
  2. Ben Sainsbury
    Eagle Eye What an absolute beauty!
  3. Ben Sainsbury
    WeatherArc Have to agree with you there, a higher chance of tornadoes today and less conditional. Target for me would be somewhere between Iowa City and Davenport, along I80. Right on the tip of the moisture plume and some impressive profiles as you have highlighted. Fond memories of Iowa, captured a weak tornado on my first ever US chase day last year just SE of Des Moines in Knoxville.
  4. Ben Sainsbury
    Obviously, highlighted Dodge City/Hays last night… Managed to get storm initiation but this was the likely environment it was working with.
  5. Ben Sainsbury
    Alderc 2.0 Only a handful, a tad surprised to be honest. Wonder if it was anything to do with the moisture quality this time as that was expected to be adequate but not great, I’ll have to have a look.
  6. Ben Sainsbury
    Assuming sufficient moisture advection, I actually reckon the 10% hatched will be realised tonight. Get the impression we may see a significant tornado. We’ve been missing such large instability from the majority of setups this year and I’m seeing some huge 3CAPE values being modelled tonight. If I had to guess, central parts of Kansas would be my sweet spot, maybe Hays? Though, people in Dodge City will need to be on high alert.
  7. Ben Sainsbury
    Eagle Eye Very cool shelf cloud at least mate, if nothing else!
  8. Ben Sainsbury
    Particularly concerned about the set-up tomorrow, could well and truly be some strong-violent long track tornadoes. Tonight seems to be trending upwards too with regards to tornado risk.
  9. Ben Sainsbury
    Dxnielwashere That is a cracking funnel cloud there mate! Interestingly the cell undergoes a split right before you observed that funnel cloud.
  10. Ben Sainsbury
    Anyone near Plymouth that can get a visual on the storm?
  11. Ben Sainsbury
    Already some right-moving cells out in the channel. Looks like it will be an interesting day! This cell really kicking into gear after a storm merger and now getting "that look"
  12. Ben Sainsbury
    Eagle Eye One heck of a profile that is for UK standards. If only we had >1000 J/Kg of CAPE... Just hoping we get sufficient instability to build with enough diurnal heating. Definitely capable of a low-topped supercell with large 3CAPE.
  13. Ben Sainsbury
    AndrewHamm Hi mate! It's really anyone's best guess at this point. With an early terminating El Nino, it looks like an active season is likely which is good, however even within an active season you will inevitably have quiet periods. I have attached the latest long-range CFS forecast for April and May below: Obviously, these need to be taken with a huge pinch of salt but they currently suggest above average rainfall across our typical chase region, however there is a greater consensus for significantly above average rainfall for May. Now this would suggest that May is potentially the better month to go this year, however should April start off very dry, the CFS could be indicating a very active end of April. Personally, confidence is just a little higher for the May 6-15 period vs April 21-May 1 imo. Both periods look good at this point, but that's not to say there won't be some quieter spells within the months of April and May.
  14. Ben Sainsbury
    Dreadful scenes across Indiana and Ohio, basically worst case scenarios. Doesn't look like changing anytime soon either... I worry it may be a bad year for fatalities, May and June in particular.
  15. Ben Sainsbury
    WeatherArc Some of those soundings are ridiculous. As you say, if we can get discrete development that can interact with the front and become surface-based, then these storms will be supportive of producing a tornado and potentially strong.
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